When the two-part employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was issued on Friday, the news was modestly positive: from its business “establishment” data it noted that employment increased by 162,000, a little less than expected but not far from the average of 175,000 new jobs a month that the economy has been generating for the last three months. The estimates for May and June were revised downward slightly but
Tag Archives: Unemployment
Jobs Reports Show the US Turning into a Part Time Worker Economy
- Monday, 07 September 2020 08:54
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Job Market Remains Strong; Unemployment Rate at 50-year Low
- Monday, 30 April 2018 05:28
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This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, April 26, 2018:
Unemployment claims for the week ending April 21 fell to new lows, according to the Department of Labor. On Thursday it reported that new claims fell to 209,000, far below forecasters’ expectations of 230,000. It also was the 24th week of jobless claims fewer than 250,000 and the 164th straight week of claims below 300,000.
Even more remarkable is that the last time jobless claims were this low was during the first term of President Richard Nixon, nearly 50 years ago, when the country’s labor force was just 153 million, compared to today’s work force of 162 million. Translation:
The Economy is Booming. Why Should Anyone be Surprised?
- Tuesday, 17 April 2018 05:31
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This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Friday, April 13, 2018:
For a small fee, anyone can download the Harvard Business School’s case study on Apple, Inc. In a nutshell, Apple began in April, 1976 with three employees, no customers, and no revenues. Today it has 123,000 employees, millions of customers, and revenues approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars.
This confounds Keynesians who believe, steadfastly and in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, that it is consumers who drive the economy. On just about every business news show on evening television, one can hear something like “consumers, which are responsible for 70 percent of the economy,…” etc., etc. How do they explain the growth of Apple?
New Weekly Unemployment Claims Remain Below 300,000, Longest Streak Since 1967
- Friday, 13 April 2018 05:29
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This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, April 12, 2018:
Unemployment claims fell last week to just 233,000, far below the historical average, cementing into place the longest streak below 300,000 jobless claims since 1967. A proxy for layoffs, those claims reflect not only an increasing reluctance on the part of employers to let their workers go, but an increasing need for them to bring more workers on in the face of an economic tsunami that’s just now starting to roll into the American economy.
This is just one of many indicators reflecting a growing economy, including an unemployment rate at 4.1 percent, the lowest level since 2000 (and expected to move much lower in the coming months) and employers adding to their payrolls for 90 straight months — the longest economic expansion in history.
Keynesian economists consider that consumers drive the economy, using their pay raises to drive spending on consumer goods and services. Common sense economics — aka Austrian School economics — claims that is putting the cart before the horse: It is capital investment that drives the economy, providing goods and services that consumers discover that they need and want and are willing to pay for.
The classic example is Apple’s iPhone, which
Jobs Report for March Beats Forecasters, Again
- Thursday, 05 April 2018 04:53
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Private-sector employment jumped by 241,000 jobs in March, beating February’s numbers and forecasters once again. This is the fifth straight month that the U.S. economy has added 200,000 jobs or more, and is far ahead of the paltry jobs growth recorded last September — just 80,000 new jobs that month. Forecasters were expecting just 200,000 new jobs as they anticipated that demand by employers would exceed available supply.
According to ADP/Moody’s Analytics,
New Unemployment Claims Drop Further, Beating Estimates
- Monday, 02 April 2018 04:51
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This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, March 30, 2018:
A map of the 12 districts of the United States Federal Reserve system.
New claims for unemployment insurance dropped last week to the lowest level in 45 years, according to the Department of Labor: “Seasonally adjusted initial claims [for unemployment insurance benefits were] 215,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week’s level [which was revised downward].”
Once again the economy is beating forecasters, who expected new claims to come in at 230,000. Either way, the performance of the economy continues to astound Democrats increasingly worried about the midterms and delight Republicans who voted for tax cuts and tax reform.
The last time new claims were this low was in 1973, when the labor force was much smaller. In 1973, the U.S. labor force was 100 million; today it is more than 160 million. Translation: Unemployment claims are the lowest in U.S. history when compared to the workforce.
It gets better.
Is the Federal Reserve Working Against Trump’s Reelection in 2020?
- Friday, 23 March 2018 09:03
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This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Friday, March 23, 2018:
Short-Run Phillips Curve before and after Expansionary Policy
In politics, according to FDR, there are no coincidences. He famously said that “in politics if something happens you can be sure it was planned that way.” The announcement by Trump that he has filed for reelection in 2020 and the pronouncement by the Federal Reserve following it may just be one of those “planned” coincidences.
The pronouncement from Jerome Powell, the new head of the Fed, was, on the surface, comforting:
313,000 New Jobs in February, Far Exceeding Expectations
- Saturday, 10 March 2018 07:24
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This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, March 9, 2018:
Friday’s numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) were predicted a day earlier by ADP/Moody’s Analytics, which said that private payrolls in February jumped by 235,000. But few expected the BLS to report what one surprised forecaster called “unbelievably strong” new jobs numbers. Further, the Labor Department said that its jobs reports for December and January understated the reality, adjusting those two months’ reports upward by another 54,000 jobs.
The economy continues to gain strength.
Economy’s Performance Continues to Beat Forecasts
- Saturday, 03 March 2018 06:08
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This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, March 2, 2018:
Three more measures of how the U.S. economy is performing once again beat economists’ forecasts: consumer confidence, jobless claims, and manufacturing. Tuesday’s release by the University of Michigan of its monthly “Survey of Consumers” showed all three of its indexes notching highs not seen in years. Its Index of Consumer Sentiment (“How are you feeling about your finances today?”) hit 99.7 compared to January’s robust 96.3. That is the second-highest level since 2004, reflecting, according to the survey’s chief economist Richard Curtin, consumers’ “favorable assessments of jobs, wages, and higher after-tax pay … overall, the data signal an expected gain of 2.9% in real personal consumption expenditures during 2018.”
The forecasters in this instance nearly got it right. The consensus reported by the Wall Street Journal expected 99.5. But that’s about as close as any of them got.
The U of M’s Index of Current Economic Conditions (“How does the economy look to you from your personal perspective?”) also beat expectations,
Economy Beats Forecasters Again: Jobless Claims at 45-year Low
- Saturday, 20 January 2018 06:50
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This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, January 19, 2018:
Economists polled by Reuters expected jobless claims filed during the week ending January 13 to be a little lower than the week before — 250,000 new claims compared to 261,000 new claims filed the first week in January. Once again, the economy surprised to the upside: Jobless claims fell to a 45-year low of 220,000. Any number below 300,000 in an economy as large as the United States’ reflects a healthy economy.
Excuses for the miss ranged from
What the Latest Jobs Reports Really Mean
- Tuesday, 09 January 2018 06:20
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This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, January 8, 2018:
There were three jobs reports released last week: two from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (one based on its “household” survey, the other on its “establishment” survey), and one from ADP based upon its payroll data.
ADP’s numbers came in first on Thursday, showing job growth in December exceeding forecasters’ predictions at 250,000. This was followed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on Friday, showing 148,000 new jobs in December. They both said that the unemployment rate held steady at a record low 4.1 percent.
Mark Zandi, the establishment economist at Moody’s, was “disappointed” in Friday’s numbers from the BLS and thinks they’re going to get worse going into the New Year. First,
Economist Mark Zandi Exposes His Statist Worldview
- Tuesday, 09 January 2018 06:13
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This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, January 8, 2018:
Mark Zandi should be embarrassed. Not because he is an establishment economist. Not because he is a Keynesian. And not because he’s not a smart guy. He should be embarrassed that someone allowed him to publish nonsense about the state of the economy in order to promote his worldview.
He lives in a world that is behaving much differently than he expected or than he apparently wants. He wants the Trump tax reform law to fail. He must admit that the economy is working much better than he ever expected it to. But, in the end, he says that it’s all a mirage, temporary, that the resurgence measured by nearly every metric isn’t going to last.
He is establishment to the core, and perhaps that’s why he’s willing to go to the mat for a worldview that is being overturned and increasingly discredited: that statists can control things much better than an uncontrolled “free” economy can.
He admitted in an article for CNBC that things are going just swimmingly:
Trump Economy Making Democrats Look Increasingly Foolish
- Saturday, 06 January 2018 06:12
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This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Friday, January 5, 2018:
The kept media dutifully reported California Democrat Nancy Pelosi’s disgust over President Trump’s tax reform program, even though it made her look foolish. Said Pelosi, “If this goes through, kiss life on earth goodbye. The debate on health care is life/death. This is Armageddon.” This was followed by the media quoting Democrat Chuck Schumer: “Tax breaks don’t lead to job creation … [this bill is a] punch in the gut for the middle class.”
It may be a little early to tell, but at the moment the middle class is doing just fine. Life goes on; if Armageddon occurred, the media missed it. That “punch in the gut for the middle class” is about to be caused by heavier wallets, thanks to tax cuts showing up in their February paychecks.
For hundreds of thousands, that punch in the gut was immediate:
U.S. Economy’s Stunning Performance Continues to Bewilder Forecasters
- Friday, 15 December 2017 06:24
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This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, December 14, 2017:
US Retail Sales 1992–2010. Threy’ve been on a tear ever since.
Economic forecasters continue to fall behind reality, as shown by the latest numbers from the Commerce Department. Forecasters predicted that November’s retail sales would increase just 0.3 percent over October. Instead, retail sales jumped an astonishing 0.8 percent. In an economy where two-thirds of economic activity is geared toward providing consumers with goods and services, that’s huge miss — on the order of a three-quarters of a billion dollar miss.
October’s numbers dumbfounded them as well:
“Trump’s” Stock Rally Best Since 1945
- Thursday, 09 November 2017 06:38
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This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, November 8, 2017:
Before the market opened on the day after Donald Trump won the election a year ago, futures were predicting a precipitous drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average of 900 points. By the close of business that day, sentiment reversed and the market closed up 250 points, to 18,500.
That was 5,000 points ago,
This Thoroughbred is Just Beginning to Feel His Oats
- Saturday, 21 October 2017 05:40
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This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Friday, October 20, 2017:
Thoroughbred racing at Churchill Downs.
It’s tempting to push the analogy comparing the U.S. economy to a Thoroughbred horse too far. But it is tempting. The Thoroughbred breed began around the time of the Industrial Revolution, when an English mare was crossbred with an imported Oriental stallion with Arabian, Barb, and Turkoman breeding. All Thoroughbreds can trace their pedigrees to three stallions imported into England in the 17th century. They were exported to Australia, Europe, Japan, and South America during the 19th century, and today an estimated 100,000 Thoroughbred foals are registered worldwide every year.
A Thoroughbred is tall, slender, athletic, and built for competition, usually on racetracks. Among the most famous are Citation, Phar Lap, Old Rosebud, Whirlaway, Roamer, Seabiscuit, and Man o’ War.
And, of course, the United States economy.
Starting at around 1800, the U.S. economy grew at such a rate that
Many Surprises in Latest Jobless Claims Report
- Friday, 20 October 2017 05:51
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This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, October 19, 2017:
The first surprise from the latest jobless claims statistics is that new claims for unemployment insurance benefits last week fell to the lowest level in 44 years, according to the Department of Labor (DOL): “The advance figure … was 222,000 … the lowest level for initial claims since March 31, 1973.”
The second surprise is that the number of continuing claims (those lasting more than a week) also fell to levels not seen since 1974.
The third surprise is
Jobs Report Shows Remarkable Economic Resiliency After Hurricanes
- Saturday, 07 October 2017 06:15
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This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, October 6, 2017:
Even the headline was positive. Despite losing 200,000 jobs temporarily due to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, the American economy’s growth elsewhere all but made up for them. The Labor Department reported a net 33,000 jobs loss in September, the first negative number since 2010.
Other signs of economic strength were revealed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS):
Jump in Jobless Claims Following Harvey Is Just the Beginning
- Friday, 08 September 2017 05:13
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This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, September 7, 2017:
View of the eyewall of Hurricane Katrina taken on August 28, 2005 as the storm made landfall on the United States Gulf Coast.
The jump in unemployment claims for the week ending September 2, as reported by the Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday, not surprisingly exceeded economists’ consensus of just 241,000. The increase of 62,000 for the week to 298,000 nearly broke a claims record that has been in place for 131 weeks: 300,000.
That record will surely be broken in the weeks to come. The unemployment claims are just beginning to come in, and they are a predictor — a proxy — for job layoffs. Some workers
August Jobs Report Shows Economy Humming Along Nicely
- Monday, 04 September 2017 05:24
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This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Saturday, September 2, 2017:
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Laura Rosner, senior economist at Macro Policy Perspectives (known for its ability to “understand how to read the tea leaves of economic and financial developments”), summed up August’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday: “The economy is doing well, but it’s not necessarily taking off. We’re on an even keel. The labor market continues to hum along.”
The growth in jobs was in all the right places, too,
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