This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, September 22, 2016:
Nate Silver accurately called the 2008 presidential election outcomes in 49 of the 50 states while in 2012 he did even better: he correctly predicted the winner in all 50 states plus the District of Columbia.
The blogger at FiveThirtyEight.com, Silver runs the numbers every day. On August 9 Silver calculated that Donald Trump had a 12.3 percent chance of winning the presidency in November compared to an 87.6 percent chance for Hillary Clinton. Less than six weeks later (as this is being written late Wednesday afternoon) Donald Trump now has a 42.7 percent chance of winning versus Hillary Clinton’s 57.2 percent. That’s a 30 percent surge for The Donald and a 30 percent drop for Hillary.
And this despite the Clinton campaign outspending Trump’s by five-to-one: $156.6 million by Clinton compared to just $33.6 million by Trump since the start of the campaign.
Part of Clinton’s problem, of course, is her likeability (of lack thereof) compared to Trump who, according to Republican ad-maker Fred Davis, is