Have nothing to do with the [evil] things that people do, things that belong to the darkness. Instead, bring them out to the light... [For] when all things are brought out into the light, then their true nature is clearly revealed...

-Ephesians 5:11-13

Tag Archives: Case-Shiller

Pew Research: Gap Between Promises and Assets Widens for State Pensions

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, April 24, 2017:

A RETIRED COUPLE FROM CALIFORNIA STOP TO FISH ...

After reviewing the investment results for 230 public pension plans for the last two years, Pew reported last Thursday that, despite strong recent stock market performance, the gap between liabilities (promises) and assets for those plans widened by 17 percent, to $1.4 trillion. Put another way, those plans should have nearly $4 trillion in assets to enable them to keep their promises. The latest data shows them with just over $2.5 trillion instead.

Said Greg Mennis, director of the project,

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Three Stock Market Indicators Spell Trouble for Pension Fund Managers

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, April 24, 2017:

Warren Buffett speaking to a group of students...

Warren Buffett

Michael Lombardi is a bear. Canadian-born, Lombardi has been dishing out investment advice for decades. He is getting nervous. And so should pension fund managers trying to make up for lost time.

In his March newsletter, Lombardi looked at the Warren Buffett Indicator:

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“The most Bullish thing the Stock Market can do is go up.”

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, June 10, 2015: 

Charles Dow -an American journalist who co-fou...

Charles Dow -an American journalist who co-founded Dow Jones & Company with Edward Jones and Charles Bergstresser.

 

Right up until early April, that is. The Value Line Geometric Index, the unweighted index of approximately 1,700 stocks that fund manager Dana Lyons likes to watch, topped out at 522 and has declined by almost 10 percent since then.

By Monday, June 8 the Dow’s decline had wiped out all of its gains and is now flat for the year. The Dow Transportation Index fell 2 percent that day, its worst day since January 6, wiping out its 11 percent year-to-date gain. The Dow Utilities Index has suffered an even greater decline, erasing all of its 16 percent gain.

The Dow is one of the primary leading indicators used by financial advisors like Bruce Bittles, the chief investment strategist at RW Baird. Bittles manages $100 billion of other peoples’ money, and he’d better be right. Now, he’s getting nervous:

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Latest Housing Numbers May be an Aberration

English: Foreclosure Sign, Mortgage Crisis

The spate of good news about the economy, headed up by the National Association of Realtors (NAR)’s report that pending home sales increased by 7.3 percent in November from October, has resulted in improved outlooks by many observers, along with warnings from others not to get overly confident.

Even Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, was cautious in his announcement, perhaps chastened by NAR’s admission last week that they had overstated sales for the past five years: “Housing affordability conditions are at a record high and there is a pent-up demand from buyers who’ve been on the sidelines, but contract failures have been running unusually high.” And to avoid making the same mistake twice, Yun said that some of the increase in pending home sales may be people who couldn’t qualify before who are attempting to make another purchase now.

The pending home sales index hit 100.1, the first time it has been over 100 since April of 2010 when sales were goosed by the expiration of the government’s homeowner tax credit. Actual home sales were up in November as well, hitting a seven-month high, according to the Commerce Department.

New construction activity is inching higher along with builder confidence while the inventory of homes for sale is declining. Aaron Smith, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, was cautious: “It looks like buyers are

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Is Economists’ Gloom Marking the Start of the Recovery?

The clouds were amazing this afternoon during ...

Image via Wikipedia

With the announcement from the Commerce Department that the sale of new homes in August fell by 2.3 percent compared to July, the Los Angeles Times took on a decidedly gloomy tone, concluding, “Sales of newly built homes in the U.S. appear to be stuck at the bottom.” The report noted that the August numbers translated into an annual rate of 295,000 sales, which is close to the low of 278,000 recorded in August last year, and down from the 1.3 million new homes sold in 2005.

Missing was any attention, however, to two important pieces of the economic housing puzzle in that report. First, the trend for new home sales has been

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Growing Evidence That the Economy is…Growing

CSX GE Dash 8-40B #5000

Image via Wikipedia

Despite the government’s increased creation of money, new federal regulations that stifle companies and cause additional costs, and proposed new taxes, some businesses are pushing ahead with business-as-usual, leading to an uptick in the economy—at least in the short term. The shipping of materials used in industrial production by rail in the United States grew last month to the highest level since October 2008, with Union Pacific enjoying its strongest weekly volume so far this year. UP Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Robert Knight said he continues to see “solid demand” across most business segments, with shipments of industrial products increasing by

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The Fed’s Projections Are Too Rosy, Again

Seal of the United States Federal Reserve Syst...

Image via Wikipedia

The economic projections released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday estimated that in less than two years the unemployment rate would be down to 7 to 7 ½ percent, with the economy growing at an inflation-adjusted rate of nearly 4 percent. And in the next three to five years, the unemployment rate would likely be back to normal: between 5.2 and 5.6 percent.

This is wishful thinking. Okun’s Law (or rule of thumb) says that it’s going to take

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Evidence for Double Dip is Growing

Recession

Image by Anders V via Flickr

Establishment economists and other economic cheerleaders were disappointed to learn that, despite the government’s best efforts to revive the economy through Keynesian interventions and stimuli, the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for the first quarter of 2011 was half the rate of growth in the last quarter of 2010.

As noted by the Wall Street Journal,

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Speculators and High Oil Prices Explained

Super Contrails as the 767 flies through cloud...

Super Contrails as the 767 flies through cloud… (Photo credit: AvgeekJoe)

Last Thursday, speaking in Reno, Nevada, President Obama announced that the Department of Justice was going to examine the role of “traders and speculators in the gasoline and oil markets,” and how they contribute to high gas prices.

The Attorney General [is] putting together a team whose job it is to root out any cases of fraud or manipulation in the oil markets that might affect gas prices, and that includes the role of traders and speculators. We are going to make sure that no one is taking advantage of American consumers for their own short-term gain.

What do speculators do? Here is a cogent explanation by Victor Niederhoffer, a well-known speculator and author of The Education of a Speculator:

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Housing Double-Dip is Here: Case-Shiller

LAS VEGAS - FEBRUARY 24:  Hotel-casinos on the...

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

One of the most-watched and highly regarded indices giving direction to the housing market is the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index published every month. Its latest report, announced on Tuesday, provides the clearest evidence so far that housing prices are continuing to fall and in fact may represent a significant double-dip in the housing market into 2011.

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Housing Prices to Fall Further

FOR SALE BY OWNER (if you can find it)

Image by The-Tim via Flickr

When Bloomberg polled so-called real estate “experts” about the housing market, they expected a slight pull-back in housing prices of perhaps 0.2 percent when compared to a year ago. Instead, the Case-Shiller Index showed prices dropped four times greater than expected: “The biggest year-over-year decline since December 2009,” according to the group.

This caused many of those observers to confirm the worse than expected result.

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The Economy Looks Like “L”

The Letter "L"

Image by dumbledad via Flickr

Just when the headline news about the economy was beginning to look good and the talking heads were beginning to sound good, along came a barrage of bad news that was so bad that it couldn’t be covered up. Gallup began with the news that in January nearly 20 percent of the U.S. workforce “lacked adequate employment”, which was worse than the numbers reported by the Labor Department. According to Reuters, these “findings appear to paint a darker employment picture than official U.S. data,” with about 30 million Americans “underemployed.” And Gallup misses the mark by at least 2 percent, according to John Williams of ShadowStats.com.

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Many of the articles on Light from the Right first appeared on either The New American or the McAlvany Intelligence Advisor.
Copyright © 2018 Bob Adelmann