Have nothing to do with the [evil] things that people do, things that belong to the darkness. Instead, bring them out to the light... [For] when all things are brought out into the light, then their true nature is clearly revealed...

-Ephesians 5:11-13

Tag Archives: bubble

The Ripple Effect of Rising Interest Rates

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, September 9, 2015:  

With financial talking heads now convinced that the Federal Reserve will finally increase interest rates as a result of the record-setting job openings report, few are asking about the “ripple effect” those increases might mean for individuals, for the auto and the housing industry, for companies and corporations, and, most importantly, for the debt-laden federal government.

If and when the fed announces upcoming interest-rate increases, in the short run, individuals might be tempted to accelerate their buying decision on cars and houses to take advantage of low rates before increases start flowing through to lenders in those sectors. In the longer run,

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China Has Its Own Plunge Protection Team

This article was published at The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Friday, July 31, 2015: 

China has its own Plunge Protection Team. Its efforts were in evidence last Wednesday as the Shanghai and the Shenzhen indexes, both of which had been flat most of the day, leaped up three percent and four percent, respectively, in the last 30 minutes of the trading session.

Jacky Zhang, an analyst at BOC International, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Bank of China, exclaimed:

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China’s Stock Market Continues Its Sharp Decline

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, July 8, 2015:

As predicted, the Chinese stock market accelerated its decline on Wednesday despite efforts by Chinese government officials to slow it.

The combination of over-leveraged investors with little prior experience about the prudent use of margin to buy stocks has turned the decline of the Chinese stock market into a rout. Closing on Wednesday at 3,507, the Shanghai Index has lost one-third of its value just since June 12 when it hit 5,178. The smaller Shenzhen Composite, made up of smaller technology stocks, is down 40 percent.

Jeremy Warner, economics commentator and assistant editor at London’s Daily Telegraph, viewed the carnage and remarked:

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China Stock Market Tumbles Into Bear Market

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, July 3, 2015:  

Since June 12 the Shanghai Index of Chinese stocks has lost 30 percent, thanks to losses on Friday of nearly six percent, and 12 percent for the week. That index, reflective of the Chinese stock market in general, exploded between November and June thanks to some 90 million newly minted Chinese investors entering the market for the first time, many of them with borrowed money, hoping to cash in on the rise.

Brokerage houses were only too glad to oblige, with many of them allowing new investors to borrow up to six times their initial equity position. As the market went almost vertical, commentators have been calling it a bubble, with prognosticators predicting its end sometime before 2016.

That may have been too hopeful:

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Neo-Luddites in Paris are Losing to Uber

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, June 29, 2015:

Although the definition of “neo-Luddism” is a “movement of passive resistance to the … frightening technologies of the computer age,” in Paris the resistance is hardly passive. Last week taxi-drivers shut down entrances to and exits from the Charles De Gaulle International Airport, attacked cars driven by Uber drivers (including their passengers), overturned some of them, and set tires on fire. All this to express their frustration over how Uber is slowly, inexorably, putting them out of business. Since they were on strike, even when customers wanted a ride, the cartel members turned them down. After all, they were on strike! (Shown above are passengers toting their own luggage away from De Gaulle airport.)

As the head of taxi company G7 said on French television,

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“The most Bullish thing the Stock Market can do is go up.”

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, June 10, 2015: 

Charles Dow -an American journalist who co-fou...

Charles Dow -an American journalist who co-founded Dow Jones & Company with Edward Jones and Charles Bergstresser.

 

Right up until early April, that is. The Value Line Geometric Index, the unweighted index of approximately 1,700 stocks that fund manager Dana Lyons likes to watch, topped out at 522 and has declined by almost 10 percent since then.

By Monday, June 8 the Dow’s decline had wiped out all of its gains and is now flat for the year. The Dow Transportation Index fell 2 percent that day, its worst day since January 6, wiping out its 11 percent year-to-date gain. The Dow Utilities Index has suffered an even greater decline, erasing all of its 16 percent gain.

The Dow is one of the primary leading indicators used by financial advisors like Bruce Bittles, the chief investment strategist at RW Baird. Bittles manages $100 billion of other peoples’ money, and he’d better be right. Now, he’s getting nervous:

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Stock Market Wipes Out All Gains for the Year

This article first appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Tuesday, June 9, 2015:

On Monday, June 8, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) declined by enough to wipe out all gains investors thought they had made in stocks since January 1. It was confirmed by action in the Dow Jones Transportation Index (DJTA), which is even older than the Dow and reflects the price performance of the stocks of 20 transportation companies such as Avis, Delta Airlines, and FedEx. On Monday that index fell by two percent, its worst day since January 6, bringing that index to a loss of nearly 11 percent from its high earlier in the year.

The decline in the Dow was further confirmed by

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China’s Economy Continues to Implode

This article was first published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Friday, May 8, 2015: 

English: Scatter graph of the People's Republi...

Wolf Richter is one observer of the present world economic scene who hasn’t had his mind altered by drinking the Kool-Aid ladled out in Washington and in the economics departments of so many colleges and universities. After holding a number of C-level positions (CEO, COO, etc.) in large and successful private companies, he chucked it and went to live for a while in Switzerland. He started a blog with the ghastly name of Testosterone Pit, which he thankfully changed to Wolf Street last summer.

He has been watching economic events unfold (and unravel) in China for some time, but the latest from the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) so startled him two weeks ago that he thought it was either a misprint, or that the index would bounce right back from its precipitous fall.

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China Export Shipping Declines by Two-thirds

This article first appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, May 7, 2015: 

Two weeks ago the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), which tracks shipping rates from Shanghai to the world, fell off a cliff: down a breath-taking 67 percent from a year ago. Wolf Richter thought it was a statistical fluke.

It was no fluke. In the next two weeks the SCFI for Northern Europe fell another 14 percent, an all-time low. Wrote Richter: “Something big is going on in the China-Europe trade.”

The collapse is being echoed by other indexes reflecting the breathtaking decline in China’s exports. For example

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Do Negative Interest Rates Portend a Negative Economy?

This article first appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, May 4, 2015:

Last Thursday the London Daily Telegraph’s assistant editor, Jeremy Warner, reported an astonishing statistic: Almost a third of all government debt in the eurozone is paying negative interest rates. That’s more than $2 trillion in government bonds, and, it appears, investors are happy that they aren’t paying even more.

Fifty percent of French bonds now trade with a negative yield, while 70 percent of Germany’s bonds trade at a negative yield. More remarkably, in Spain, which was on the verge of insolvency just a few years ago, 17 percent of its government bonds now trade with a negative yield.

This is counterintuitive, which explains why Keynesians, those who believe that “demand” in an economy can be artificially increased by manipulating taxes and the money supply, have no explanation for it. In theory,

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More Keynesian Insanity: Negative Interest Rates

This article first appeared at The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, May 4, 2015:

There’s a corollary to the insanity rule. It’s called the Keynesian Corollary: When something doesn’t work, do more of it. When history is written about the coming Second Great Recession, historians will likely note July 2012 as the turning point. That was when Mario Draghi, head of the European Central Bank (ECB) said during a panel discussion that the ECB “is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.”

Other historians might list that as one of the top ten “famous last words” ever issued by a human being. Since that moment bond yields across the world have dropped, and dropped, and dropped. On Thursday Jeremy Warner, the London Daily Telegraph’s assistant editor, announced that

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China’s Economic Bubble Ready to Burst?

This article first appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, March 13, 2015: 

 

The latest numbers out of China no longer mask its economic decline. Chinese industrial production “slowed at its sharpest rate in the first two months of the year since the global financial crisis” shouted the Financial Times on Wednesday.

Wang Tao, UBS’ chief economist on the Chinese economy, was dour: “Today’s disappointing data release highlights just how quickly domestic demand is deteriorating as the ongoing [real estate] downturn continues to spread its negative impact through the economy.”

In China that impact is huge,

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China’s Economy Headed for a Hard Landing

This article first appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, February 9, 2015:

The China bubble is imploding at an accelerating rate and has caught Wall Street economists off guard, according to the Wall Street Journal on Sunday.

Why they should be surprised is hard to fathom, given the predictions offered for months on end about the ending of the great Chinese economic “miracle.” As recently as three weeks ago, Minxin Pei, professor at Claremont McKenna College and professional observer of the Chinese economy, said, “If the official Chinese data should be believed at all … China’s GDP growth at 7.4% in 2014 … could have been worse.”

Indeed, it probably was.

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Economic Forecasting is a Dangerous Business

This article first appeared at The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, February 9, 2015:

English: New York Yankees catcher Yogi Berra i...

Yogi Berra

Nearly everyone has an opinion about forecasting and its dangers. Some, like Yogi Berra, will tell you, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Others, like John Kenneth Galbraith, will say, “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Still others will warn about setting either the exact event, or its timing. Do either one, they say, but not both.

Apparently the forecasters enlisted by the Wall Street Journal last week to give their best estimates of growth in China weren’t listening, or didn’t care. Or perhaps they believe in Keynesian miracles alongside those of the Tooth Fairy.

Nevertheless, when asked about import and export growth in China for the month of January, they missed reality by a country mile. The Journal tallied up the results and their seers and prognosticators concluded that

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U.S. Government’s Interest Costs to Quadruple in 10 Years

This article first appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, February 5, 2015: 

On Tuesday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the federal government will be paying $800 billion annually just to service the interest on its massive debt by 2025, up from just over $200 billion currently. By 2021, those interest costs will equal what the government is projected to be spending on national defense, and on non-defense (so-called “discretionary” items), and will greatly exceed those two budget items just by 2025. The Journal also noted that “non-discretionary” items (so-called “mandatory” expenditures) will continue their inexorable march upward, from $2 trillion currently to more than $4 trillion by 2025.

Surprisingly, few eyebrows were raised over the announcement,

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Latest CBO Report shows Deficits Approaching $1 Trillion

This article first appeared at The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, February 4, 2015: 

English:

When the Congressional Budget Office issued its Budget and Economic Outlook 2015 to 2025 in January, few could be bothered to do a serious review of it as it seemed to contradict the present meme of the Goldilocks economy: job growth accelerating, interest rates low, consumer confidence improving, deficits shrinking, and so forth. Even those taking the time to look at it, scoffed at its conclusions. Said the CBO:

The federal budget deficit, which has fallen sharply during the past few years, is projected to hold steady relative to the size of the economy through 2018.

Beyond that point, however, the gap between spending and revenues is expected to grow, further increasing federal debt … which is already historically high.

The CBO explained why:

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China Stock Market Off Sharply After Regulatory Crackdown

This article first appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, January 19, 2015:

Chateau Lafite Rothschild Label for the 1999 v...

Chateau Lafite Rothschild Label for the 1999 vintage

During Monday’s session, stocks traded on the Shanghai stock market fell to their lowest level since June 2008, losing nearly eight percent.

Hardest hit were three brokerages that have been heavily involved in allowing Chinese small investors to open margin accounts, through which investors are able to borrow a portion of the money needed to buy securities, using the securities as collateral. When many of them were unable to settle their accounts, rather than forcing margin calls (a demand by a broker that an investor deposit further cash or securities to cover possible losses), the brokerage houses simply allowed them to

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Auto Loan Bubble a Replay of Housing Mortgage Bubble?

This article first appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, January 12, 2015:

When Patrina Thomas decided it was time to trade in her 2002 Jeep in the summer of 2013, she went back to her local friendly Chrysler dealer. They were only too happy to take her Jeep as a down payment on a used 2008 Chrysler Sebring with the balance, an estimated $10,000, financed at 20.4 percent interest. Because her credit score was below 620, she qualified for “special” financing provided by Santander Consumer USA Holdings, a lender working closely with Chrysler Capital in such cases.

Her payment was so high — $385 a month — that she struggled to make it from the very first month. It finally got beyond her ability to pay, and the car was repossessed a year later. With a market value today of just $4,600 and her remaining loan balance of $7,600, she is upside down by $3,000.

Thomas has lots of company. According to the Wall Street Journal

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Yes, Karen, There’s an Auto Loan Bubble After All

This article first appeared at The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, January 12, 2015:

2007 Chrysler Sebring photographed in USA.

Chrysler Sebring

There’s little doubt that Karen Weise enjoyed her weekend. Back in August she tried to raise concerns about the bubble in auto financing, but couldn’t pin them down. A reporter for Bloomberg Businessweek in Seattle, all she could find back then were Fed spokesmen pooh-poohing concerns that too many broke people were getting car loans, that such fears were “misplaced,” that “it’s unlikely the composition of auto loan originations in our data will radically change since last year,” as New York Fed spokesman Matthew Ward put it.

She quoted four economists from the New York Fed who were unanimous:

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Wall Street’s Hallelujah Chorus Greets New Highs in Stocks

This article first appeared at The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Friday, December 26, 2014:

 

 

Observers of new highs being put in by stocks at the Wall Street Journal could hardly restrain themselves. Eric Morath and Ben Leubsdorf, writing in the Journal on Tuesday, noted that the economy is now enjoying “a sweet spot of robust growth, sustained hiring, and falling unemployment [which is] stirring optimism that a post-recession breakout has arrived.”

Translation: Good times are here again, and likely to continue. Break out the Brie and Chablis.

Looking past the celebrations and the prognostications seemed, at first view, to confirm the market’s outlook:

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Many of the articles on Light from the Right first appeared on either The New American or the McAlvany Intelligence Advisor.
Copyright © 2021 Bob Adelmann