This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Sunday, November 1, 2020:
Polling firm USC Dornsife’s Daybreak Poll added two new questions to its survey: What percentage of your social contacts do you expect to vote for each of the presidential candidates? and, Whom do you think will win the election in your state?
Without those two questions, their poll shows Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 11 points. With them, the gap is much closer. And when it comes to the Electoral College, Trump beats Biden.
Dornsife’s pollsters tested those questions in five elections — the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the 2018 U.S. midterms, the 2017 French presidential election, the 2017 Dutch Parliamentary election, and the 2018 Swedish Parliamentary election. In all five, “The social circle question predicted election outcomes better than traditional questions about voters’ own intentions,” according to the pollsters.
And responses to the state-winner question confirmed the results.
Jim Key, director of marketing and media relations for USC Dornsife, said