Have nothing to do with the [evil] things that people do, things that belong to the darkness. Instead, bring them out to the light... [For] when all things are brought out into the light, then their true nature is clearly revealed...

-Ephesians 5:11-13

Category Archives: Health

Polls Show Business, Consumer Sentiment Suffering Under Coronavirus Shutdown

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Tuesday, April 7, 2020: 

Polls taken by the Conference Board, the University of Michigan, the New York Federal Reserve, and the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) are consistent: Consumer and business sentiment is taking a dreadful hit thanks to the “social distancing” and “sheltering at home” protocols put in place last month to fight the virus.

With 250 million Americans affected, or about 75 percent of the country’s population, the results, although widely anticipated, were worse than expected.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported on Monday that

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What Will the Economic Recovery Look Like?

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Tuesday, April 7, 2020: 

Regarding the economic recovery from the COVID-19 lockdown, there are hundreds of opinions, but only three scenarios. The recovery from the coronavirus shutdown will either look like a “V”, a “U,” or a “swoosh.”

Janet Yellen, the former Federal Reserve chair, said “I think a ‘V’ is possible, but I’m worried that the outcome will be worse.… It really depends on just how much damage [was] done during the time the economy [was] shut down.” Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, thinks that “once the infection rate has fallen by enough, we can ease off the most economically onerous measures, allowing GDP to slowly recover.”

That would be a “U”-shaped recovery, says Joachim Fels, global economic advisor at PIMCO, the global investment management firm that had $2 trillion under management before the stock market crashed: “Unlike previous recessions … the trigger of the present crisis is an exogenous shock. We are seeing the first-ever recession by government decree — a necessary, temporal, partial shutdown of the economy aimed at preventing an even larger humanitarian crisis.”

A “V”-shaped recovery would be like a coiled spring that has been pushed down and down and down until it finally springs back with great gusto. As Jeff Cox wrote at CNBC, “When the growth engine is turned back on, the U.S. [economy] will be turbo-charged and ready to roar.”

On the other hand,

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Flawed Coronavirus Models Overestimated Deaths, Need for Hospital beds

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, April 6, 2020: 

On March 31, the White House’s coronavirus task force gave its “best case” scenario: between 100,000 and 200,000 Americans would die from the virus, with the daily number peaking over the next two weeks. One of the lead members of that task force, Dr. Anthony Fauci, called the numbers “sobering”: “As sobering a number as [100,000] deaths is, we should be prepared for it. Is it going to be that much? I hope not.”

Based on models he had seen, Professor Bill Hanage at Harvard’s T.H. Dhan School of Public Health told reporters that those numbers “certainly seem to be within the reasonable framework. I would not be particularly surprised by them. I wouldn’t be surprised if they were higher. I wouldn’t be actually surprised if they were lower.”

But then he added this caveat: “One of the things that’s difficult for those of us who’ve been involved in modeling is communicating the amounts of uncertainty that we have.”

Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the task force, were relying on these models forecasting the spread of the virus, including particularly one prepared by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). It was released the day before Fauci’s announcement, and concluded that the spread of the virus was likely going to overwhelm the country’s healthcare system, particularly the need for hospital beds:

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Holy Week or Pearl Harbor Week?

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, April 6, 2020: 

The timing could not be more propitious. Bookended by Palm Sunday yesterday and Easter Sunday next Sunday, believers are celebrating the “death of death” with the resurrection of their Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ.

The Surgeon General of the United States, on the other hand, is calling the week ahead our “Pearl Harbor” week, or our “9/11” week, in remembrance of the surprise attacks on our country by its enemies.

He expects that the coming peak in coronavirus deaths, expected either this week or next, to be “the hardest and the saddest week of most Americans’ lives.” He told Fox News on Sunday:

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Ipsos, Harris Polls Report Virus Shutdown Is Closing Small Businesses Permanently

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Sunday, April 5, 2020:  

Polls conducted among small business owners the third week of March by Ipsos and Harris are showing the damage already being done to small businesses by the coronavirus shutdown.

Ipsos’ poll of 500 small business owners and operators with 19 or fewer employees (most of them running business with zero to four employees) between March 25 and March 28 — conducted via email since many business owners weren’t answering their phones — showed that a quarter of them have already shut down temporarily while another quarter are expected to close by the middle of April.

Worse, four out of ten owners think they have less than six months until the shutdown forces them to close their businesses permanently.

Those still open are adjusting the best they can: shortening their business hours; laying off their employees or reducing their employees’ salaries, and foregoing taking a paycheck themselves from their business during the shutdown.

The numbers from the Harris poll — 300 business owners were polled on March 23 and March 24 — confirmed Ipsos’ results:

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In States With no Stay-at-home Orders, Citizens Staying Safe

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, April 3, 2020: 

There are currently 38 states operating under “stay-at-home” rules, “shelter-in-place” orders, or full “lockdown” mandates that forbid citizens from leaving their homes without explicit permission from authorities. Of the remaining 12, seven — Wyoming, Utah, Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Alabama and South Carolina — have at least one city or municipality under one of these restrictions. That leaves five — Iowa, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, and Arkansas — that don’t have any such statewide mandates.

USA Today technology writer Marco della Cava was tasked to learn how those five “free” states are managing without coronavirus mandates. He asked, “So, what’s life like.… Are some Americans [in those states] still chatting at the local barbershop, meeting for post-work happy hours and gathering for backyard barbecues?”

He answered: “Not so much. The reality is a complicated and even conflicted mix of respect for a deadly pathogen, concern over its economic implications, and a desire to maintain a sense of American independence in the face of collective tragedy.”

Responses reflected a general sense of personal responsibility that represents those states’ cultures. For instance, Brian Joens, owner of Joensy’s Restaurant in Iowa City, Iowa, said he is doing the best he can under the circumstances:

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Biden Challenges Trump to a Debate, Again

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, April 2, 2020:

Once again, the likely Democrat candidate for president, former Vice President Joe Biden, is challenging the president to a debate. During an interview with radio host Enrique Santos on Wednesday, Biden said he is “ready to debate President Trump on Zoom or Skype, any time he wants.”

The last time Biden challenged the president to a debate he claimed he would “beat him like a drum.” Unfortunately for Biden, that was back in February — ages ago in political terms. Following his Super Tuesday win, while being interviewed by Brian Williams, Biden challenged the president:

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Trump Administration Adds Gun Makers and Retailers to List of “Essential” Businesses

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Tuesday, March 31, 2020: 

Given the opportunity presenting itself in the form of the coronavirus shutdown, many anti-gun states shut down gun stores and manufacturers as being “non-essential.” On Saturday, the Trump administration revised its own list of “essential” businesses deemed important to the safety and security of the Republic and the list now includes gun stores and gun manufacturers.

The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) is the agency responsible for executing directives by the Department of Homeland Security. In its revised memo, released on Saturday, it said that CISA “has developed … an ‘Essential Critical Infrastructure Workforce’ advisory list. This list is intended to help State, local, tribal and territorial officials as they work to protect their communities.”

Under the “Law Enforcement, Public Safety, and Other First Responders” section is now included

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Rhode Island Forces Any Out-of-state Visitors to Quarantine Themselves

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, March 30, 2020: 

Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo replaced her edict demanding that New Yorkers coming to her state to escape the virus pandemic quarantine themselves for 14 days or else face fines and imprisonment and replaced it with one that includes anyone from out of state. She defended her initial edict by stating, “The reason is because more than half of the cases of coronavirus in America are in New York.… I know it’s unusual. I know it’s extreme, and I know some people disagree with it. [But] if you want to seek refuge in Rhode Island, you must be quarantined.”

The governor isn’t quite right about the numbers, but her threat is real. According to Worldometers, as this is being written on Monday morning, there are 142,793 known cases of the virus in the United States, with 59,648 (41 percent) of them in New York State. There are 294 known cases of the virus in Rhode Island, which have resulted in three deaths so far.

The governor is determined to keep her state’s numbers as low as possible, no matter what it takes. She has ordered the state police to set up checkpoints on I-95 and other main highways leading into her state from the west where drivers from out of state are being directed to checkpoints. If they ignore the signs, they will be pulled over. They will be quizzed about their plans, forced to give their personal contact information, and given a copy of the governor’s edict. It includes the penalties for noncompliance with the state’s quarantine: a $500 fine and possible jail time for up to 90 days.

National Guardsmen were also posted at train stations and bus depots to seek out and warn incoming New Yorkers seeking refuge in the state.

Even more egregious is her ordering National Guardsmen to start knocking on doors,

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The Media Soils Itself Over Its Coverage of Trump’s Handling of the Coronavirus

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, March 30, 2020: 

When members of the public were given the opportunity to express their disgust over the media’s coverage of the president’s handling of the COVID-19 crisis, they took it. Gallup reported their results: of the nine leaders and institutions involved in the virus’s mitigation efforts, eight of them were scored positively. In ninth place, the only institution rated negatively, was the mainstream media.

The survey started polling on March 13, the day President Trump declared a national emergency over the virus, and ran it through Sunday, March 22. U.S. hospitals got the highest approval rating, at 88 percent. The president received a 60 percent approval rating while the news media scored just 44 percent.

This was roughly in line with polling results from ABC News and CBS News (at 53 percent approval of the president’s handling of the crisis) and Monmouth University’s (at 50 percent). Monmouth’s poll tagged the media as well, reporting that its survey revealed 43 percent of those polled said the media was doing a poor job of reporting on the crisis.

It must have taken the skin off CNN‘s Grace Sparks and Jennifer Agiesta to have to report that its “Poll of polls” – an aggregate of the last five polls on the president’s overall job performance – indicated that “President Donald Trump’s approval now averages higher than his approval rating has been at any point in CNN‘s polling during his presidency.” And the public’s approval rating of how the president has handled the crisis jumped 11 percentage points in just the last three weeks, from 41 percent earlier this month to 52 percent, according to the two CNN journalists.

The polling reflects the viewership of his daily press conferences. According to Nielsen Ratings, 12.2 million people watched the president’s briefing on Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC last Monday, “up there with Monday Night Football” exuded Liberty Nation‘s James Fite. And that doesn’t count those watching on CBSNBC, or online streaming sites.

This is causing considerable angst among members of the mainstream media who were hoping that the coronavirus would at long last bring down the Trump presidency. With his increasing approval numbers, the media is now urging that those press conferences be tape-delayed and not covered live so that they can line up their responses in advance.

Their excuse? Trump lies, exaggerates, misleads, and deliberately misinforms the public during those pressers. Tweeted Margaret Sullivan, Washington Post‘s media columnist: “The media must stop live-broadcasting Trump’s dangerous, destructive coronavirus briefings…. He’s just using them as a substitute for his rallies. Put him on tape-delay so journalists [like me] can counter his rush of misinformation.” Rachel Maddow of MSNBC echoed Sullivan: “If it were up to me, I would stop putting those briefings on live TV. Not out of spite but because it’s misinformation.” Then she snipped: “If the president does end up saying anything true, you can run it as tape.”

Those watching Trump’s press conferences know that they are professional and informative, with experts like Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Deborah Birx, the president’s response coordinator for the Coronavirus Task Force, bringing relevant, vital, and timely advice and commentary on the virus, its trajectories, and mitigation efforts being done across the country.

Not only are those watching hungry for information, they are also approving of the president’s leadership style under pressure. As his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump (wife of Trump’s son Eric), expressed it: “Unprecedented times call for a strong leader. My father-in-law, President Trump, is showing what leadership looks like in time of crisis.”

The media, on the other hand, have so soiled their reputation over their coverage that they are coming in last in the public’s view.

—————————

Sources:

GallupCoronavirus Response: Hospitals Rated Best, News Media Worst

LibertyNation.comTrump’s Approval Soars As Media Seeks Blackout

Fox NewsLara Trump: Trump’s handling of coronavirus crisis shows America what real leadership looks like

DailyWire.comGallup Finds Biggest Loser In COVID-19 Response Is The Media

TownHall.comYes, Of Course the Networks Should Keep Airing the White House’s Daily Coronavirus Briefings

CNNCNN Poll of Polls: Trump’s approval up amid coronavirus concerns

Newser.comTrump Has a First in Poll

Fox News60 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of coronavirus: Gallup poll

Western JournalLiberal Media Wants To Pull Trump Briefings from Air After Bashing Him for Not Holding Them

Background on Anthony Fauci

Background on Deborah Birx

Background on Lara Trump

Background on Margaret Sullivan

Trump: Ending Shutdown on Easter Sunday To Be a “Beautiful Thing”; Pushback Immediate

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, March 25, 2020: 

In an interview with Bill Hemmer of Fox News on Tuesday, President Trump said that he would love to announce the end of the shutdown in time for Easter Sunday: “I would love to aim it right at Easter Sunday so we’re open for church services on Easter Sunday.… That would be a beautiful thing.… You’ll have packed churches all over the country. I think that this will be a beautiful time.”

Ignoring the obvious parallel between Easter Sunday — for Christians it is the “Resurrection Day” of Jesus Christ — and the resurrection of the moribund U.S. economy, the pushback was immediate from both the Left and the Right.

Representative Liz Cheney (R–Wyo.) said,

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Morgan Stanley’s Good News Exceeds Its Bad News About the Coronavirus

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, March 25, 2020: 

Analysts at Morgan Stanley predicted on Monday that the U.S. economy will shrink at a record-breaking pace of 30 percent (annualized) during the second quarter, and that the unemployment rate would surge to nearly 13 percent, up from the mid-three percent range.

This exceeds the pessimistic forecast from analysts at Goldman Sachs, who predicted a 24 percent decline in GDP in the second quarter.

The good news from MS assumes that

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Trump Wants to Reopen the Economy. Will the States Follow?

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Tuesday, March 24, 2020:

The president’s insistence that “we cannot let the cure be worse than the problem” and that “we have to open our country” has turned the conversation to the possibility that that reopening could begin in weeks, not months: “I’m not looking at months, I can tell you right now” he said on Monday.

He added, “Our country wasn’t built to be shut down. America will again, and soon, be open for business. Very soon. A lot sooner than three or four months … a lot sooner.”

He then suggested that the remedies implemented to contain the coronavirus might have been excessive: “We have a very active flu season, more active than most. It’s looking like it’s heading to 50,000 or more deaths. That’s a lot. And you look at automobile accidents, which are far greater than any numbers we’re talking about [from the coronavirus]. That doesn’t mean we’re going to tell everybody: no more driving of cars. So we have to do things to get our country open.”

The economic cost, estimated by Goldman Sachs last Friday at a 24-percent decline in the nation’s economic output in the second quarter, has been dwarfed by that from the banking firm Morgan Stanley. On Monday the international banking and investment firm expects the economy to shrink by an annualized rate of 30 percent in the second quarter and the unemployment rate to jump to nearly 13 percent.

The keys to keeping the patient alive are timeliness, sufficiency of the external financial support being offered by Washington, and the cooperation of the states.

As The New American suggested on Monday, the economy is like a patient on life support: small businesses that make up more than half of it can only survive without oxygen (cash flow generated by customers) for a very short period of time. For a human it’s four to six minutes without oxygen before he expires. For a small business it’s more like a month or perhaps two before becoming insolvent.

The sufficiency of the financial support being offered, already in place and being debated in the Senate at the moment, is estimated to top six trillion dollars. Not having travelled down this road before, it’s pure speculation about whether that’s enough to keep the patient alive until the customers return.

If Morgan Stanley is right — that the coronavirus outbreak peaks in late April — “a sharp rebound would begin in the June-August quarter, leading to solid growth in 2021.”

What would that rebound look like? And what would be the long-term effects of the coronavirus scare?

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Some Good News About Coronavirus

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, March 20, 2020: 

A study done by five researchers from Harvard and three from the University of Hong Kong that was published by Nature Research on Thursday concluded that the risk of dying from the COVID-19/coronavirus was about 60-percent lower than previously reported. They wrote, “The probability of dying from the infection, after developing symptoms … was 0.5% … for those [aged 15 to 64] and 2.7 percent for those [over 64].” The study was based on the best available information from the city of Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak.

This is far lower than that estimated by the World Health Organization (WHO) earlier this month, at 3.4 percent.

And even those lower numbers might still be too high,

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Will April Showers Bring May Flowers, and an End to the Coronavirus?

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, March 18, 2020: 

Following a telephone conversation with China’s President Xi Jinping on February 7, Donald Trump tweeted: “He feels they are doing very well, even building hospitals in a matter of only days. Nothing is easy, but he will be successful, especially as the weather starts to warm & the virus hopefully becomes weaker, and then gone.”

Evidence is mounting that President Trump is right, that with warmer temps and higher humidity, the COVID 19/coronavirus will fade into an historical footnote.

Trump was likely referring indirectly to a study published by S&P Global Ratings just three days earlier, which posited both a “worst-case” and a “best-case” scenario for the virus. In the worst case, the spread of the virus is expected to stop in late May. In its best case, the ratings agency expected the outbreak to end in March.

The agency also expected various governments — federal, state, and local — to intervene massively, offering subsidies and tax cuts to cushion the impact of those mandates on economic activity along with strictures on personal freedoms.

Analysts at Jeffries Group, a financial and investment advisory service, published an encouraging graph based on their study of the impact of weather on other coronavirus cases in both temperate (i.e., middle latitudes) and tropical and subtropical climates. They stated that the result — that other coronaviruses thrive in temperate zones but die in warmer climates — “is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and [the] rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19” virus.

Even skeptics such as Marc Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology at Harvard, admitted that “we may expect modest declines in the contagiousness of the [virus] in warmer, wetter weather.” And those declines may be hastened by “intense public health interventions … [such as] isolating cases, quarantining their contacts, [and recommending or mandating] a measure of “social distancing.”

Wrote Lipsitch:

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Coronavirus Is Far Less Virulent Than the Flu, Say Experts

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, March 18, 2020. 

Please note the disclaimer from the editor.  

[Ed. Note: Opinions vary regarding the coronavirus and its inherent danger. What’s clear is that the REACTION is extremely dangerous – perhaps necessarily so, but dangerous nevertheless. It is in the process of destroying most of the First and Second Worlds’ GDPs; threatening income for individuals, families, businesses, organizations, and governments; and cutting supply lines for basics the world depends on for sustenance. However many may die from the disease, many others are likely to die from the severe social and economic disruptions caused by trying to combat it.]

Suspicion that the panic over the spread of the COVID 19/coronavirus is media-generated grows by the day. Most obvious is the comparison of its death rate compared to the common flu.

Joe Hoft, founder of The Gateway Pundit, crunched the numbers from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and the Worldometer Coronavirus website, and found that the popular media has greatly exaggerated the fatality rates of the virus when compared to the seasonal flu numbers from 2019-2020. The death rate of the coronavirus is “much less deadly than [that of] the common flu from the 2019-2020 season,” wrote Hoft.

The seasonal flu that year infected 222,000 Americans and 22,000 of them died, a death rate of 10 percent. Using data presently available, 94 American citizens have died from the coronavirus out of 5,243 total cases reported so far, a death rate of less than two percent.

Worldwide there are 189,572 reported cases of the coronavirus, of whom 7,513 have died – a death rate of under four percent. “In summary,” wrote Hoft, “the coronavirus is not as deadly as is being portrayed in the lying liberal media. In fact, it is not as deadly as the flu.”

Hoft’s numbers and conclusions were confirmed by Heather Mac Donald, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. Writing in the literary journal The New Criterion, Mac Donald did the math as well, calculating that the present number of deaths of Americans compared to the nation’s population reveals a death rate of .000029 percent. She noted that the “fear of the disease and not the disease itself” is the real concern:

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COVID 19: Is the Response Proportional to the Virus?

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Tuesday, March 17, 2020: 

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) has confirmed 4,226 U.S. coronavirus cases as of March 17, with 75 CDC-confirmed deaths. The Worldometer coronavirus page puts the number of U.S. cases at 5,703, with 97 deaths (this includes non-CDC reporting done by states), and Johns Hopkins reports 5,218 cases and 92 deaths. So far, this puts the U.S. death rate for COVID-19 at around 1.7-1.8 percent.

How does this compare with the seasonal “flu” in the United States?

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Many of the articles on Light from the Right first appeared on either The New American or the McAlvany Intelligence Advisor.
Copyright © 2020 Bob Adelmann