Category Archives: Foreign Policy

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, September 16, 2019: 

New admissions from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday reveal continuing and accelerating weakness in the world’s second-largest economy. Heading into trade talks scheduled for October, such weakness further erodes the bargaining power of China’s communist negotiators in dealing with President Trump’s top people.

The report from the Chinese government’s economic mouthpiece was startlingly candid: The nation’s industrial production hit its lowest level in 17 and a half years, while retail sales, auto sales, and investment measures worsened as well. Industrial exports declined by 4.3 percent last month compared to a year ago. Factory output shrank for the fourth straight month.

China’s economy could be facing a “vicious cycle” of decline, said Li Wei, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank. He warned that

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Friday, June 14, 2019: 

Stephen Walt, a professor of international relations at Harvard, not only thinks he know how wars start, he thinks Trump is well on the way to starting one with Iran. Writing for the establishment Foreign Policy magazine, Walt says that “leaders bent on war must convince the public that … war is necessary and wise. Congress abdicated its constitutional role to declare war a long time ago, which gives presidents a pretty free hand.”

First, says Walt, the president must persuade the public that the danger confronting the republic is both “grave and growing.” Second,

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, June 3, 2019:

Just before Juan Guaido, Nicolas Maduro’s opposition in Venezuela, called for his people to gather in front of Maduro’s presidential palace – “the largest march in the history of Venezuela” – this writer reminded readers that a similar gathering abruptly ended another dictatorship in Romania in 1989. This writer then suggested that perhaps lightning might strike twice, ending Maduro’s oppressive regime in a similar manner.

Sad to say, it didn’t happen. In some quarters it was suggested that Guaido’s failure strengthened Maduro’s dictatorship simply by surviving the threat.

Behind-the-scenes talks between Maduro’s people and Guaido’s in Norway failed to come to any sort of agreement as well, further confirming that Maduro was likely to remain in place for the foreseeable future.

Suddenly one of Russia’s military suppliers to Venezuela decided to pull out, giving the Maduro regime a body blow from which it may not recover. According to the Wall Street Journal,

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, March 25, 2019: 

Just days after Russia/U.S. talks taking place in Rome collapsed on Wednesday, Russia clarified exactly where it stands in Venezuela by sending a Russian troop commander and 100 troops to Caracas.

U.S. Special Envoy to Venezuela Elliott Abrams said the talks ended on a positive note: “We did not come to a meeting of the minds, but the talks were positive in the sense that I think both sides emerged with a better understanding of the other’s views,” he stated.

On the other hand, Abrams’ Russian counterpart, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, ended the meeting with a warning: “We assume that Washington treats our priorities seriously, our approach and warnings.”

It didn’t help any that Venezuela’s interim president, Juan Guaido, who has been recognized by the United States, told Reuters on Friday that Maduro’s regime was failing: “They are isolated, alone, they are falling apart day by day. The citizens do not like them, they reject them, they hate them.” After listing the new sanctions the United States has placed on Maduro’s lifeline — sanctions against foreign banks supporting Maduro and against his gold mining company and its president — Guaido added: “What’s missing? That the leadership, the high command of the armed forces, [must] take the side of the constitution.”

Russia has substantial political and economic investments in Venezuela specifically and in South America in general that it is unwilling to give up without a fight. Some consider the arrival of fresh troops a provocation, while others consider it a bargaining chip for the next round of talks. It’s also a follow-on to the joint military exercises with Russian and Maduro’s military that took place in Venezuela in December.

The Russian troop commander, Chief of Staff of Russia’s Ground Forces Vasily Tonkoshkurov, arrived on Sunday with 100 Russian soldiers and 35 tons of military equipment. They were there, said the Associated Press, to “discuss strategy, equipment maintenance and training,” without further details.

It is one of many potential flashpoints that could ignite the conflict