This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, November 22, 2019:
The underlying assumption in U.S. foreign policy seems to be that by applying pressure economically, China will be forced to agree to a trade deal. Richard Koo, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, Japan’s largest economic research firm, thinks that policy is working: “I suspect the increasingly pronounced slowdown in China’s economy, coupled with recent employment data pointing to continued strength in the US economy, are putting heavy pressure on China to settle sooner rather than later.”
Koo assumes that the numbers coming out of China are reflective of reality there. At six percent growth per year, China’s economy (using the mathematical Rule of 72) will double every 12 years. If the U.S. economy is growing at two percent annually, its economy will double every 36 years. Simple math dictates that at some reasonably short time in the future, China’s economy will equal that of the United States, with all manner of political ramifications following.
As Michael Pillsbury pointed out in his monumental Hundred-Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower, the communists running China expect their economy to be