Have nothing to do with the [evil] things that people do, things that belong to the darkness. Instead, bring them out to the light... [For] when all things are brought out into the light, then their true nature is clearly revealed...

-Ephesians 5:11-13

Category Archives: Economics

National Debt Projected to Hit $41 Trillion by 2030

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, August 12, 2020: 

If the Manhattan Institute is correct, the national debt will reach $41 trillion no later than 2030, less than 10 years from now. Their calculations take into account the budget deficits baked into the numbers before the COVID crisis hit, the stimulus packages initiated since, the impact of an aging demographic on Social Security and Medicare, falling tax revenues due to a smaller economy, and rising interest rates.

Said the institute:

Over the full decade, the coronavirus recession is expected to add nearly $8 trillion to the national debt, pushing the debt held by the public to $41 trillion within a decade, or 128% of the economy….

 

This gives lawmakers six years or less to avert a potential debt crisis in which rising debt and interest costs would overwhelm Washington’s ability to tax and borrow.

Two key questions arise:

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ADP’s Disappointing July Jobs Report Offset by June’s Upward Revision

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, August 5, 2020:  

ADP’s National Employment Report was a massive miss. Most private economists were expecting job growth in July to approach two million, as the economy continues to recover from the COVID shutdown. Instead, ADP reported just 167,000 new jobs were created in July.

The miss, however, is likely to be offset when the Department of Labor reports on Friday, with expectations that it will show July job growth more in line with expectations of about two million.

ADP’s miss was also softened by its revision upward of June’s jobs numbers, from the 2.4 million new jobs it reported last month to 4.3 million as more accurate data became available.

Its miss is also counterbalanced by

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Republicans Registering Thousands More Voters Than Democrats in Battleground States

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, August 5, 2020: 

In a report released by the Trump Victory committee exclusively to Axios on Monday, Ronna McDaniel, the chair of the Republican National Committee (RNC) said, “As enthusiasm for President Trump continues to grow, so does the Republican Party. Over 100,000 new voters are ready to cast their ballot for four more years of President Trump’s ‘Promises Made, Promises Kept’ agenda, and elect Republicans up and down the ballot on November 3rd.”

Despite the COVID shutdown, the report showed that those newly registered voters are more than double the number at the same stage of the election cycle in 2016.

The Democratic advantage in Pennsylvania has been lessened by 133,000 voters since 2016, and 87,000 voters in Florida. The Democrat’s net advantage in North Carolina, Arizona, and Iowa has also shrunk significantly.

This is more evidence of the president’s accelerating momentum as Election Day draws closer. On Monday, for example, a survey taken by Rasmussen Reports show that the president has the approval of more than half of likely voters in November, way ahead of the 44-percent approval rate of then-President Obama at the same time during his first term, August 3, 2012.

More revealing from the Rasmussen survey is that Trump has the approval of 30 percent of likely Democrat voters, 49 percent of likely Independent voters, and perhaps most importantly, 48 percent of likely Black voters. Among other “non-white” likely voters, Trump’s approval rate is 63 percent.

While these numbers may not translate directly into votes in November, it is one more indicator of Trump’s momentum.

As The New American reported last Friday,

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New Jersey Gym Owners Defy Court Order, Break Open Doors Shuttered by State

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Sunday, August 2, 2020: 

Following their arrest and release last Monday, Ian Smith and Frank Trumbetti, the owners of Atilis Gym in Bellmawr, New Jersey, were scolded by a spokesman for New Jersey Attorney General Gurbir Grewal:

After Atilis refused to comply with multiple citations and Superior Court orders, including a contempt-of-court order issued [the previous] Friday, today [Monday] law enforcement entered the premises to ensure closure and to abate public health risks.

 

As the attorney general previously said, the state wishes it had not come to this, but the gym refused to comply even with a contempt order.

Smith told the Washington Examiner that he and Trumbetti have been singled out by the governor:

We’re being targeted. It’s very clear that he’s on a mission to destroy our business because we dared to defy him.

 

There are plenty of other businesses that are open and operating just like we are [who are] defying the shutdown. But Governor Murphy has a personal vendetta against us, and it couldn’t be more clear than it is today….

 

We’re the only business in the state to be punished in a way that we have, including locking our doors and changing our locks on us, arresting us and boarding up our doors. So it’s very clear that he is on a mission to get us.

This triggered a response from the governor, who Tweeted on Friday: “We are not past COVID 19. I am not announcing any specific action today [against the owners], but consider this as being put on-notice: we will not tolerate these devil-may-care, nonchalant attitudes any more.”

After kicking in the plywood sheets that the sheriff’s office had installed, Smith took to Instagram not only to publish a video of the event but to respond to Murphy’s tweet:

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Media Say Economy Plunged in Second Quarter, Fail to Tell Whole Story

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, July 30, 2020:

The mainstream media, continuing its ongoing war against the Trump administration, celebrated the latest report from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released on Thursday with headlines that shouted “titanic plunge,” “deepest recession in American history,” “tidal wave of damage,” “a collapse of breathtaking speed and severity,” “devastating,” and so forth.

The media seem to be taking their cue from the (allegedly fake) deleted Tweet from Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.): “It’s vital that Governors maintain restrictions on businesses until after the November Elections because economic recovery will help Trump be re-elected. A few business closures or job losses is a small price to pay for be free from his presidency #KeepUsClosed.”

In our effort to provide balance, The New American continues to report on an economy that is recovering more rapidly than many observers predicted.

First, the BEA report is an “advance” report. A second estimate, ”based on more complete data,” will be released by the BEA on August 27, a month from now.

That “advance” report from the BEA was better than forecasters had predicted. Economists polled by MarketWatch estimated that

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U.S. Exports Jump 14 Percent in June, Adding to GDP & Reflecting Economic Recovery

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, July 29, 2020: 

The U.S. Department of Commerce reported on Wednesday that exports of goods from the United States jumped from $90 billion in May to more than $102 billion in June, an eye-popping 14-percent gain. This had the effect of reducing the trade deficit by six percent and adding that amount to the country’s measure of economic output.

The rebound was led by an astonishing 144-percent surge in shipments abroad of both motor vehicles and motor parts. Other capital goods sent to foreign consumers soared 11 percent, while consumer goods exported increased by more than 12 percent.

And this report from the Commerce Department doesn’t include travel or tourism, which is likely to show similar gains when they are reported next week.

Two weeks ago, President Trump celebrated his administration’s success in reducing regulations much more than he had promised during his campaign, rolling back nearly eight regulations for every new regulation enacted. For the first time in years, instead of adding to the federal register (the Obama administration added more than 16,000 pages), his administration removed nearly 25,000 pages of regulations.

The New American recounted on July 17 how the economy has rebounded from the COVID-inspired shutdown, at least partially, due to the improved regulation environment:

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Biden’s Tax and Spending Plans Could Wreck the Economy

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, July 27, 2020: 

As Election Day —Tuesday, November 3 — draws closer, more attention is being paid to the Democrat Party’s presumptive presidential candidate Joe Biden and his plans to tax and spend the country into oblivion.

The Tax Foundation and the Tax Policy Center have analyzed the impact Biden’s plans would have on the economy, the deficits, the national debt, and the average taxpayer.

The Tax Foundation said that,

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Economy Rebounding; Stocks Setting Records

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, July 27, 2020: 

Bookings for durable goods orders — those designed to last at least three years — jumped another 7.3 percent in June, following May’s 15.1-percent surge. Economists were expecting a 6.9-percent increase.

Behind the jump were orders for motor vehicles and parts, which leapt 85.7 percent in June following May’s 28.8-percent gain.

The two-month rally suggested that

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Existing-home Sales Set Record in June, Reflecting Booming Housing Market

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, July 23, 2020:  

Existing-home sales rose nearly 21 percent in June, the largest gain since Realtors began keeping count in 1968. These make up almost 85 percent of all U.S. home sales.

This follows three months of declines, thanks to the COVID-inspired government-ordered shutdown of the economy. Existing home sales remain about 11 percent below pre-shutdown levels.

The rebound is likely to continue, according to Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR): “The sales recovery is strong, as buyers were eager to purchase homes and properties that they had been eyeing during the shutdown. This revitalization looks to be sustainable for many months ahead.”

The report from the NAR is only part of the rebound taking place in the housing market.

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Trump Touts Deregulation; Economy’s Rebound Shows it

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, July 17, 2020: 

Speaking on the South Lawn of the White House on Thursday afternoon, President Trump celebrated his administration’s success in rolling back regulations that were stifling the economy under the previous administration:

Before I came into office, American workers were smothered by a merciless avalanche of wasteful and expensive and intrusive federal regulations.

He has promised that, if elected, his administration would roll back two regulations for each new one proposed. But his administration has greatly exceeded that promise, he said, by rolling back nearly eight regulations for every new one enacted. Said the president: “What an incredible achievement!”

Sounding like a politician on stump the president ticked off a few of the regulations that his administration has either softened or removed altogether: the rollback of vehicle emissions standards which reduce the cost of a new car by an estimated $2,200; cutting the time for environmental assessments from four and a half years to just one year; and the deregulation of prescription drugs.

He also allowed incandescent lightbulbs to be sold again: “I brought them back. They have two nice qualities: they’re cheaper and they’re better. They look better. They make you look so much better. That’s important to all of us.”

Overall, said the president, his administration’s success in rolling back regulations is adding an estimated $3,100 a year to each household’s income. He added: “The previous administration added over 16,000 pages of heavy-handed regulations to the federal register. That’s why nothing got done. Under my administration we have removed nearly 25,000 pages of job-destroying regulations, more than any other president by far in the history of our country.”

That may explain why the economic bounce back from the COVID-inspired lockdown continues to exceed expectations and has put to rest any conversation about the shape of the recovery. It’s clearly a “V.” According to various sources:

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Homebuilders’ Housing Market Index Surge Shows Recovery More Than Just Homes

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, July 16, 2020: 

The astonishing rebound in the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) implies much more than just a rebound in residential housing. It also reflects a positive impact on the overall economy and likely the election as well.

In April the HMI stood at 30 (50 is neutral; below is contracting, above is expanding), the lowest level seen since June 2012, eight years ago. In May it jumped to 37, in June it hit 58, and in July it leapt another 14 points to 72. That’s the level it hit in March before the pandemic shutdown.

Simply put, that means that housing has come all the way back to where it was in March, just four months ago.

But it means much more than

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Energy Secretary Optimistic About Oil’s Future

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Sunday, July 12, 2020: 

Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette, speaking to energy executives in Houston on Friday, said the U.S. energy industry “will come back, and it will come back very, very strong.” He added: “Energy underpins everything we do in the U.S. economy. It’s one of the backbones of the strength of the economy and the nation itself.”

The question is: just how far will the industry come back?

Crude oil was trading above $63 a barrel in early January but by the end of April it hit $12 a barrel. On Friday WTI (West Texas Intermediate) closed just above $40.

So, oil traders are buying the bullish argument that

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Wholesale Prices Drop in June; Economists Confounded

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, July 10, 2020: 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on Friday that wholesale prices dropped by 0.2 percent in June. Economists were expecting an increase of 0.4 percent.

Confounding those economists further, wholesale prices have dropped by nearly one full percentage point over the last year. Common sense says that when the supply of money and currency increases, price increases are sure to follow.

And the money supply has certainly been increasing.

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Jobs Report Shows Nearly Five Million Jobs Added in June

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, July 2, 2020:

The U.S. economy, recovering from the government-mandated lockdowns to limit the spread of the COVID-19 virus, rebounded sharply in June, exceeding forecasters’ expectations and confirming yesterday’s report from ADP.

According to the Labor Department, the economy generated nearly five million jobs in June, as those mandates lifted and restaurants and bars reopened. The unemployment rate dropped to 11 percent, down two percent from May and nearly half what it was in April.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls increasing by three million jobs.

The government reported that

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Dow and Employment Jump in May and June, Confirming Economy’s Rebound

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, July 1, 2020: 

Wall Street celebrated its best quarter since 1987, with the Dow gaining 17 percent from April through June, the S&P 500 Index rising 20 percent and the small-cap NASDAQ leaping 30 percent.

The news came on top of the latest report from the country’s largest payroll processor ADP, which reported that private-sector employment increased by more than 2.3 million from May to June. This came on top of employment gains in April of three million.

Job gains were across the board, with a million new jobs being reported by small companies employing fewer than 50 people, more than 550,000 by midsized companies, and nearly 900,000 reported by companies with 500 or more employees.

The goods-producing sector gained 457,000 jobs, with most of them in construction and manufacturing, while the service-sector employment jumped by nearly two million. The bulk of those, as expected, were in the “leisure and hospitality” sector as restaurants opened and customers flocked to take advantage.

To top it off,

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Latest Poll Shows Trump Erasing Biden Advantage

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Tuesday, June 30, 2020:

When Optimus pollsters asked 1,000 likely voters last week whom they would vote for if the election were held that day, 44 percent said Biden while 40 percent said Trump.

Not only is this within the survey’s margin of error (MOE) of 4.5 percent, it all but erased Biden’s eight-point advantage from just two weeks earlier.

A shift has become perceptible over the last couple of weeks and was confirmed by CNBC’s All-America Survey taken June 19 through June 22.

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Surprises in Just-released WalletHub’s Best- and Worst-run Cities in America

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, June 29, 2020: 

The consumer financial website WalletHub released its “Best- & Worst-run Cities in America” on Monday, and there were a number of surprises.

No surprise was that the worst 10 included Chicago, Detroit, New York City, San Francisco, and, dead last, Washington, D.C.

The top 10 best were all relatively small towns,

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Chesapeake Energy Declares Bankruptcy; Should Emerge Leaner and Stronger

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, June 29, 2020: 

Chesapeake Energy Corporation, once the country’s second-largest natural-gas producer, declared bankruptcy on Sunday in Houston. Most on Wall Street weren’t surprised, as the company had warned repeatedly that it likely wouldn’t survive in its present form thanks to excessive debt and the COVID-19 lockdowns.

Wall Street used words such as “succumbs” and “failures” and the like to describe the company’s descent into bankruptcy.

The New American has chronicled the company’s history of enormous success — in 2011 Forbes named the company’s co-founder Aubrey McClendon to its “20-20 Club,” which is comprised of CEOs who had delivered to investors returns in excess of 20 percent a year for 20 years — as well as McClendon’s enormous tolerance for risk as he was building the company.

When McClendon died in a car crash in 2018, Doug Lawler took over as chief executive. Lawler faced an enormous task: reduce the company’s towering debt while pivoting from production of natural gas to the much more lucrative business of producing crude oil.

He almost made it.

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Consumer Spending Rebounds a Record Eight Percent in May

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, June 26, 2020:

The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Friday that consumer spending jumped to a new record in May: 8.1 percent over April, more than double the all-time high ever recorded since the bureau started keeping track of such things in 1959.

Consumers, locked away owing to government mandates in response to the COVID virus, headed for auto showrooms and big box stores to celebrate their new freedom in May.

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Many Signals Showing Strong U.S. Economic Rebound

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, June 22, 2020:  

No matter where one looks, the U.S. economy is not only on the mend, it is rebounding sharply, giving increasing support to a V-shaped recovery from the COVID-inspired government economic shutdown.

Retail sales jumped in May by nearly 18 percent from April’s stomach-turning drop of 16 percent. Apple Maps is showing that travelers are doing more driving, while restaurant bookings have jumped. Hotels are beginning to fill again, and passenger air travel is steadily increasing.

A particularly bright spot is the housing industry. Mortgage applications for single-family homes are now up 21 percent compared to last year at this time, increasing to the highest level seen in over 11 years. As Joel Kan, a forecaster at the Mortgage Bankers Association, exuded,

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Many of the articles on Light from the Right first appeared on either The New American or the McAlvany Intelligence Advisor.
Copyright © 2020 Bob Adelmann