Have nothing to do with the [evil] things that people do, things that belong to the darkness. Instead, bring them out to the light... [For] when all things are brought out into the light, then their true nature is clearly revealed...

-Ephesians 5:11-13

Category Archives: Federal Reserve

Who gave Powell the Power to Manipulate Markets?

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Friday, November 30, 2018: 

With just two words – “just below” – Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave Wall Street what it was hoping to hear on Wednesday: a step back from his “we’re a long way from neutral” comments in early October. Wall Street finished the day higher by more than two percent. Here’s what Powell said that triggered the relief rally:

Interest rates are still low by historical standards, and they remain just below [emphasis added] the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy – that is, neither speeding up nor slowing down growth.

That’s a very long way from his previous comments that took 2,500 points off the Dow in the weeks following their issuance.

Nearly all the conversation was about Powell’s words, which were, according to Robert Pavlik, chief investment officer at SlateStone Wealth, “exactly what the market was expecting to hear. Obviously it has to do with the market reaction to his previous comments. He had to walk [them] back.”

There was much discussion over just what he meant by “neutral.” Two weeks ago, Charles Evans, the president of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank who also sits on the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee, didn’t know what “neutral” meant:

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Two Words From the Fed, and Wall Street Jumps More Than Two Percent

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, November 29, 2018: 

While Fed Chair Jerome Powell was addressing the Economic Club of New York on Wednesday, the stock market was open, and it was listening. What it was listening for exceeded its expectations and stocks jumped in the final hours of trading by more than two percent, its biggest one-day gain since the end of March.

What was “the street” listening for?

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U.S. Government Ran $100 Billion Deficit in October

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, November 15, 2018: 

The U.S. Treasury’s monthly statement of income and expenditures should have been a cause for celebration: Total receipts of $253 billion (a quarter of a trillion dollars) in October were 7.6 percent ahead of last October’s receipts. This is the expected result of lowering tax rates and removing onerous regulations so that the economy could breathe again.

But the celebration never happened.

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Fed to Blame for Stock Market Selloff?

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, October 25, 2018: 

Wednesday’s selloff on Wall Street took away all the gains stocks had made since the first of the year, turning the major stock averages — the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 Index, and the Nasdaq Composite — negative for the year.

Stock watchers blamed everyone and everything except the real culprit for the selloff: trade “disputes,” China’s intransigence, the murder in Saudi Arabia, the rise in oil and gas prices, the “migrant caravan” headed for the southern border, the rash of fake bomb attacks, fill in the blank.

Those watchers came closer to placing the blame more accurately, however, when

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U.S. Fiscal Outlook “Not Good,” Says Goldman Sachs’ Chief Economist

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Tuesday, May 22, 2018: 

In his newsletter to Goldman Sachs’ clients published on Monday, Jan Hatzius, the investment banking firm’s chief economist, wrote, “An expanding deficit and debt level is likely to put upward pressure on interest rates. While we do not believe that the U.S. faces a risk to its ability to borrow or to repay, the rising debt level could nevertheless have [serious] consequences.”

Borrowing from the Congressional Budget Office’s analysis following the passage of the tax reform act, the two-year budget deal in February, and the massive “omnibus” spending bill in March, Hatzius projected that annual deficits will shortly exceed a trillion dollars a year, pushing the national debt close to $30 trillion in less than 10 years. He warned:

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Fed Sees Inflation Coming, Raises Rates to Head it Off

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, March 22, 2018: 

Following the unanimous and much-anticipated decision by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by another quarter of a percent on Wednesday, the new chairman, Jerome Powell, said, “The economic outlook has strengthened in recent months. Several factors are supporting this outlook: fiscal policy [i.e., Trump’s tax cuts to individuals and corporations] has become more stimulative, ongoing job gains are boosting incomes and confidence, foreign growth is on a firm trajectory, and overall financial conditions remain accommodative.”

This raises the question:

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Is the Federal Reserve Working Against Trump’s Reelection in 2020?

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Friday, March 23, 2018: 

English: Short-Run Phillips Curve before and a...

Short-Run Phillips Curve before and after Expansionary Policy

In politics, according to FDR, there are no coincidences. He famously said that “in politics if something happens you can be sure it was planned that way.” The announcement by Trump that he has filed for reelection in 2020 and the pronouncement by the Federal Reserve following it may just be one of those “planned” coincidences.

The pronouncement from Jerome Powell, the new head of the Fed, was, on the surface, comforting:

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Goldilocks Stock Market Making Forecasters Nervous

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, July 13, 2017:  

At the moment, Wall Street investors are enjoying a “Goldilocks” economy: not so hot that it pushes prices up and not so cold that it causes a recession. Translation: Unemployment is low, wages are rising, interest rates are still near record lows, the gross domestic product (GDP) continues to grow (although not as fast as President Trump would like), and inflation is under control.

It isn’t a perfect world, but to Wall Street investors it’s close.

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Trump Suggests National Debt “Deal,” Media Calls It “Fanciful” and “Dangerous”

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, May 9, 2016:  

A snippet from Donald Trump’s conversation with CNBC on Thursday raised the ire of numerous media commentators, who called Trump’s plan “unprecedented” (CNBC), “fanciful” and a “threat” (New York Times), and “tantamount to a debt default” (Yahoo Finance). Others called his remarks “reckless,” while Tony Fratto, a former Treasury official in the George W. Bush administration said, “This isn’t a serious idea — it’s an insane idea.”

What sparked the ire? The initial impetus was when Trump said, “[The U.S. Treasury is] paying a very low interest rate. What happens if that interest goes up two, three, four points? We don’t have a country. I mean, if you look at the numbers, they’re staggering.”

Indeed they are. The U.S. Debt Clock shows the national debt closing in on $20 trillion, while the economy is slumping along, with a GDP at just over $18 trillion. Put another way,

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Texas Contracts to Build Nation’s First State Gold Bullion Depository

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, May 5, 2016:  

The Texas Comptroller’s Office has begun to receive bids from private contractors interested in building the country’s first state gold storage facility, the Texas Bullion Depository (TBD). When Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed into law the bill providing for it last July, he said it was all about saving fees being paid to store the state’s gold in New York banks:

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Is the U.S. Heading Into Another Recession?

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, February 15, 2016:  

Buried in Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen’s comments to senators last Thursday were three revealing statements.

First: “There is always some chance of recession in any year. But the evidence [at the moment] suggests that expansions don’t die of old age.” Translation: Recessions result from inherent weaknesses in the system.

Second, she admitted that

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Congress Votes to Raid Fed’s Slush Fund to Pay for Highways

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, November 23, 2015:  

In its never-ending quest to spend money it doesn’t have, but not wanting to raise taxes, especially during the current election cycle, on Thursday, November 5 Congress passed a $325-billion, six-year transportation bill that is to be financed by selling off some of the country’s strategic petroleum reserves and raiding the Federal Reserve.

In its editorial complaint about the bill, the Washington Post said

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John B. Taylor: Perfect Example of Hubris-Lathered Economist Who Thinks He Can Steer the Economy

This was article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, September 16, 2015:  

John B. Taylor, economics professor at Stanford University (where he got his PhD), thinks the massive, highly complex U.S. economy, generating nearly $20 trillion of goods and services every year, can be fine-tuned with rules and policies. Further, if those rules can be implemented clearly, the economy will do even better. He thinks of the economy as one gigantic organism with a mind and purpose of its own. That’s why he likes Fed Chair Janet Yellen:

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The Ripple Effect of Rising Interest Rates

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, September 9, 2015:  

With financial talking heads now convinced that the Federal Reserve will finally increase interest rates as a result of the record-setting job openings report, few are asking about the “ripple effect” those increases might mean for individuals, for the auto and the housing industry, for companies and corporations, and, most importantly, for the debt-laden federal government.

If and when the fed announces upcoming interest-rate increases, in the short run, individuals might be tempted to accelerate their buying decision on cars and houses to take advantage of low rates before increases start flowing through to lenders in those sectors. In the longer run,

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Latest CBO Report shows Deficits Approaching $1 Trillion

This article first appeared at The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, February 4, 2015: 

English:

When the Congressional Budget Office issued its Budget and Economic Outlook 2015 to 2025 in January, few could be bothered to do a serious review of it as it seemed to contradict the present meme of the Goldilocks economy: job growth accelerating, interest rates low, consumer confidence improving, deficits shrinking, and so forth. Even those taking the time to look at it, scoffed at its conclusions. Said the CBO:

The federal budget deficit, which has fallen sharply during the past few years, is projected to hold steady relative to the size of the economy through 2018.

Beyond that point, however, the gap between spending and revenues is expected to grow, further increasing federal debt … which is already historically high.

The CBO explained why:

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Foreign Affairs: Give Away Free Money!

This article first appeared at the McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Friday, August 29, 2014:

Foreign Affairs

Foreign Affairs

What happens when a college professor meets up with a graduate student from Oxford University, intending to solve the world’s economic problems? What happens when they consider that the previous attempts to revive the economy have failed and their recommendation is to do more of the same?

The title of their resultant article in Foreign Affairs – the premier publication of the Council on Foreign Relations – explains it all:

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Article in CFR Magazine: Give Away Money to Stimulate Economy

This article first appeared at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, August 28, 2014:

 

Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) Bell 206 ...

Mark Blythe, a professor at Brown University, and Eric Lonergan, a hedge fund manager living in London, have conjured the ultimate solution to a stagnant economy: Central banks should give away free money.

These two authors of a lengthy and allegedly erudite article in the September/October 2014 issue of Foreign Affairs, published by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), appear to be living in an alternate universe, as their suggestion, if it were fully implemented, would push the world’s economy back to the Dark Ages.

The article, entitled “Print Less but Transfer More: Why Central Banks Should Give Money Directly to the People,” rests on the false assumption that

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Oklahoma is the next state to Affirm gold and silver as Legal Tender

1907 Double Eagle, Liberty Head, Obverse

1907 Double Eagle, Liberty Head, Obverse (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

On Wednesday, June 4, Oklahoma joined Utah, Texas and Louisiana in affirming that gold and silver coins are (as they always have been under the Constitution) legal tender in the payment of debts in the state. On the surface this seems almost silly: affirming a right that already exists in Article I, Section 10 of the U.S. Constitution. But it is much more than that.

 

Senate Bill 862 which Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin signed into law this week says:

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Fed Transcripts from 2008 Reveal Experts to be Clueless and Confused

English: President Barack Obama confers with F...

President Barack Obama confers with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke following their meeting at the White House. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Followers of the Fed have carefully analyzed the 1,865 pages of transcripts it released in February of its eight regularly scheduled meetings and six emergency meetings in 2008 and have concluded that these experts were clueless and unaware of the opening economic abyss yawning before them. Even the New York Times was forced to admit, following its review of the documents, that

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Treasury Refuses to Sell Its Gold Even in the Event of Default

It took more than six months for the Department of the Treasury to answer Utah Republican Senator Orrin Hatch’s questions about how the Treasury would respond to a government shutdown or the failure of the Congress to raise the debt limit. But its response is revealing:

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Many of the articles on Light from the Right first appeared on either The New American or the McAlvany Intelligence Advisor.
Copyright © 2018 Bob Adelmann