This article appeared online at on Monday, November 2, 2020: 

In a brief appearance on Hill.TV on Thursday, activist and filmmaker Michael Moore said, “Don't believe these polls.” He added, “The Trump voter is always being undercounted,” and explained why:

When [pollsters] actually call a real Trump voter [he] is very suspicious of the “Deep State” calling them and asking them who they are voting for.


It's all fake news to them … [so] it's not an accurate count.

The Biden advantage has to be cut in half, said Moore: “I think the safe thing to do … this is not scientific … whatever they're saying the Biden lead is, cut it in half.… Cut it in half and you're within the … margin of error. That's how desperately close this [race] is.”

Moore predicted a Trump victory in 2016 which “got me no free entrances to casinos, by the way … but I wake up every morning with the assumption that Trump believes he's going to win [in 2020], and that's good enough for me. If he thinks he's going to win, then I think he's going to win.”

Biden is making the same mistakes made back in 2016, said Moore:

Biden is pretty much doing what Hillary did. He's come to Michigan a couple of times … I've been putting out there on social media: Where's Joe Biden? Why isn't Biden coming to Michigan?… Trump [is] everywhere!

Back in August, Moore warned his 2.4 million Facebook followers that a Trump victory is all but certain:

Are you ready for a Trump victory? Are you mentally prepared to be outsmarted by Trump again? Do you find comfort in your certainty that there is no way Trump can win? Are you content with the trust you've placed in the DNC [Democratic National Committee] to pull this off?

Moore makes a good point. According to RealClearPolitics, the faux gap favoring Biden over Trump has shrunk again, to under seven points. In battleground states, Biden's faux advantage is now less than three points. Cut those in half, as Moore suggests, and the race is essentially even, with the momentum advantage favoring Trump.

Keith Koffler, a senior editor at the Washington Examiner, agrees with Moore. On Monday, he wrote, “The polls are almost certainly wrong again. The only question is by how much.”

He pointed to Trump's advantages that are driving the momentum shift to the incumbent:

The is turning around, playing to Trump's strength. The president has made significant outreach to minorities, and a relative handful of Black voters switching from Democrat to Republican could help him secure states like Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and North Carolina.


Not to mention that Trump — unlike Biden — is actually campaigning for the job.

There are other factors favoring a Trump victory:

  • The economy: The Commerce Department reported that in the third quarter the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of more than 30 percent;
  • The ground game: Up until very late in the game the Biden campaign eschewed canvassing neighborhoods in person, relying instead on massive social-media advertising;
  •  The industry: Biden stumbled terribly during the last debate when he admitted that he would eliminate the . Trump seized the moment, asking “Will you remember that, Texas? Will you remember that, Pennsylvania? Oklahoma? Ohio?”; and
  • Gains among minority voters: reliable polling shows Trump making significant inroads into historically Democratic Party voting blocs, including black and brown voters.

By all accounts, Michael Moore is likely to be proven correct once again, with Trump reelected to a second term on Tuesday.

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