This article appeared at on Tuesday, October 27, 2020:  

Matthew Tyrmand called Trump's victory in . He predicted he would get 311 Electoral College votes to beat . He won 306.

Now Tyrmand, a numbers guy who worked on Wall Street for years as a hedge fund portfolio manager and is a Claremont Institute Lincoln Fellow, predicts that Trump will win again. But with a larger margin, capturing between 342 and 386 Electoral College votes.

In a long Facebook post, he explained why and how:

All the conventional swing states (NH PA MI WI NV AZ) will go red.


Some of the states purported to be swing states are not even in play this cycle in my view as they are so firmly in the “stop burning down the cities” camp (FL OH GA NC) that they will be defended easily.


States that should not have been in play as they have been consistently Dem the last 30-40 years are slam dunk GOP red now (MN NM) and because of how coercive and disgusting the political/academic/ left has behaved even some states no one is talking about are in play (VA OR CT NJ).

Tyrmand makes the prediction despite real threats by the Left to steal the election:

The attempted steal via mass Covid-induced ballot distribution (mass unsolicited ballots distributed by mail in multiple states including NV NJ with lots of dead voters getting to cast a vote this cycle — think Joe Kennedy Chicago style) in Dem states (governor, state supreme court, sec'y of state that validates the vote and voter rolls) will create some chaos (states such as PA MI MN WI NV NM CO OR VA NJ CT)….


But the margins should be so healthy in many of them (especially rust belt PA MI WI) that the math won't work for the magnitude of attempted steal to be effective.

Without such attempts at , the election, says Tyrmand, could equal the 1984 Reagan landslide over Mondale — 525-13 in the Electoral College; 59-41 percent in the popular vote:

Ultimately, as it always does, it will come down to turnout. And as such, given the enthusiasm gap, it will be a landslide of almost Reagan '84 proportions.


Especially if it was tabulated unmolested by leftist Dem chicanery, but even with such bad behavior, we the people (those folks who actually believe in America and don't want to burn it to the ground) will be just fine and a second term this way comes, with an overwhelmingly expanded mandate.


Leftist (truly deplorable human beings) heads will explode and that will make 2020 a great year despite what they (the dastardly left) have attempted to do to our republic this year.

Trump's coattails will be broad enough to take back the House and expand the Republican advantage in the Senate:

And we will get back the House easily (almost every seat held by a blue wave 2018 freshman Dem that voted for impeachment) and expand in the Senate by a couple of seats — picking up MI AL definitively and possibly MN while defending IA NC AZ ME easily and only likely failing to defend in CO.

If all of this sounds familiar, it should. The New  has been tracking outlier pollsters calling for a Trump victory, including the Democracy Institute and Trafalgar. The difference is that Tyrmand called it right in 2016 and has had four years to refine his polling models.

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