This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Sunday, October 4, 2020:
The monthly Democracy Institute’s Sunday Express (United Kingdom) poll, which was released on Sunday, showed that President Trump continues to lead his Democratic Party opponent, Joe Biden, 46-45 in the race for the White House. It also reported that Trump’s lead over Biden in six key “swing” or “battleground” states — Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — remains four percent, 47-43.
This gives Trump, according to the Institute, a projected Electoral College win over Biden, 320-218.
It shows Trump winning crucial demographic blocs as well, with 18 percent of black voters supporting the president, and 40 percent of Hispanic voters giving Trump the nod.
Democracy Institute director Patrick Basham said:
Trump and Biden’s respective standings on this specific issue epitomize Biden’s overarching Achilles’ heel in this election: comparatively low support and enthusiasm for his candidacy among Black voters. To beat Trump, Biden needs nine in 10 Black votes, and lots of Black voters to cast ballots.
Currently, he’s positioned to win only eight in ten, with two out of ten Black voters ready to support Trump, and overall Black turnout looking to be flat, at best.
Sunday’s results confirm, surprisingly, the results of an election poll conducted by CAPS/Harris for Harvard University that were released on Wednesday. The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll is a monthly poll released by Harvard’s Center for American Political Studies and Harris Insights and Analytics.
It is now forthright about how it selects its polling target:
Results were weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, income, employment, education, political party, and political ideology where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.
In the past it didn’t use “political party and political ideology” as part of its selection process, and its latest results show it: Trump 45, Biden 47, within the poll’s margin of error.
This is a three-point improvement for Trump from last month’s polling and a two-point decline for Biden.
Further, when that target was asked, “Whom do you think your neighbors are mostly voting for?” 43 percent said Donald Trump while 36 percent said Joe Biden.
But what about the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll results that were also released on Sunday, showing Biden with a 14-point advantage over the president? Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies caught the reason immediately: “Democrats hold a 9-point advantage in party identification in this poll.” Raheem Kassam, a former editor-in-chief of Breitbart News’ London office, explained:
The poll sampled 35% Dem, 27% Rep, 38% Ind, [giving a] Dem +8 [advantage] vs. Rep.
Their last poll sampled Dem +3. So they changed the weighting by 5 points and now report “OMG! Biden is up another six points from the last poll!”
It’s a fraudulent industry.
That being the case, observers are advised to take the national media’s polling results with a large grain of salt. As The New American has repeatedly pointed out, the national media’s credibility for its failure to report the news fairly is at an all-time low. Accordingly, so should be the results from the polling it sponsors.
Trump supporters should take great comfort in the current, more accurate polling showing him tied with or leading his Democratic Party opponent as Election Day draws ever closer.