This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, September 26, 2018:
In its latest poll, Gallup said:
Forty-five percent of Americans now have a favorable view of the Republican Party, anine-point gain [emphasis added] from last September’s 36%. It is the party’s most positive image since it registered 47% in January 2011….
The overall increase in the favorable image of the Republican Party is the result of a jump in positive views of Republicans, including independents who lean toward the party. The percentage of Republicans and leaners with favorable views of their party grew from 67% last September to 85% now.
Among men, Democrats “have completely lost their advantage,” wrote Breitbart. “A year ago, 40 percent of men viewed the Democrats favorably, while just 37 percent viewed the GOP favorably. Now Republicans are in favor with 50 percent of men [while] favorability toward Democrats climbed [just] one point … giving the Republicans a 9 point advantage.”
Among women, gains were also impressive. A year ago, just 35 percent of American women favored Republicans, but Gallup reported that 40 percent of them now view the party favorably. At the same time, Democrat favorability among women dropped by one point.
Across all income levels, Republicans are enjoying significant gains in favorability as well. Among those earning less than $30,000 a year, Republican Party favorability jumped six percent; among those earning between $30,000 and $75,000 a year, it jumped an eye-popping 13 percent; while among those making $75,000 a year or more Republican favorability rose four percent.
A lot of this could be expected. Despite Democrat demagoguery and relentless determination to oppose anything Trump wants, Congress passed Trump’s tax reform act. The results are showing up everywhere. But this is just the lead triumph. According to the PromisesKept.com website, there are so many other Trump accomplishments that they were forced to gather them into separate topics: economy and jobs; immigration; foreign policy; national security and defense; deregulation; land and agriculture; law and justice; energy and the environment; government accountability; health care; infrastructure and technology; social programs; education; and support for veterans. At a recent speech, Trump himself threatened to read them off to his audience, showing them four pages of single-spaced items his administration had already accomplished. (He didn’t.)
The cumulative effect is being felt in nearly every part of the country, and, as Gallup reports, credit is increasingly being given to the Republicans, while support for the Democrats who have steadfastly resisted nearly every one of Trump’s agenda items has flattened and in some demographics actually declined.
A key question is: just how much of this is likely to show up in November? Just because Americans are viewing the Republican Party more favorably than at any time in the last seven years doesn’t automatically translate into victory at the polls.
But it might. Said Gallup:
For the Republican Party, less than two months away from an election that could see them lose control of both the House and the Senate, gains in public favorability are a welcome sign. The party has been wallowing in favorable ratings below 40% for most of the last five years after rarely sinking that low in the previous two decades.
No matter how much or how little party favorability affects elections, the fact that Republicans are more likely to view their party favorably than a year ago can be considered a positive indicator for the party, particularly if a more positive image boosts Republican turnout.
RealClearPolitics.com aggregates polls on races in both the Senate and the House. At present, RCP shows Republican Senators firmly in control of 47 seats while the Democrats will likely hold 44, with nine seats up for grabs.
Generic House polls show a Democrat advantage that has been declining from double digits ever since the first of the year. At this writing, the average of the last five most recent polls (taken from September 9 through September 19) shows the Democrat advantage down to 6 points.
What’s remarkable is that this time period – 10 days through last Wednesday – was headlined by increasing evidence of the Deep State’s determination to emasculate the Trump administration, including its last-minute late hit on his nominee for the Supreme Court, Brett Kavanaugh.
So, what if the Kavanaugh nomination goes south? Would that translate into Republican voters becoming so disgusted that they stay away from the polls? Or would they be so angry at the obscene charade that they would come out in droves?
In six weeks those questions will be answered.
PromisesKept.com: Making America Great Again: President Donald J. Trump’s Accomplishments
RealClearPolitics.com: Battle for the Senate 2018
RealClearPolitics.com: 2018 Generic Congressional Vote