This article appeared online at on Thursday, August 6, 2020: 

In its latest polling in four battleground states — Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania — Zogby confirmed on Wednesday what the Swing Voter Project suspected: Those who switched parties and voted for Donald Trump in are staying with him in 2020.

Rich Thau, head of the Swing Voter Project for the political consulting firm Engagious, said last week: “Our Swing Voter Project has uncovered that many of these people … prefer Trump over Biden. In fact, 22 of 33 respondents [in our focus groups in Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Michigan] feel this way.”

Zogby reported that in Florida, Trump is trouncing Biden among those swing-state voters by 68-23. In North Carolina, it’s 63-20. In Ohio it’s Trump 60, Biden 21; and in Pennsylvania, Trump runs away from Biden, 73-18.

Those swing voters are having an on the overall picture in those states. In its report on Wednesday, Zogby noted that Trump and Biden are in a virtual tie in three of them with a slight gap of four points in favor of Biden in North Carolina. But the poll’s margin of error is more than three points, so Biden’s lead in North Carolina is ephemeral at best.

Said Zogby: “What’s keeping things close is Trump’s domination of swing voters. A good portion of these voters live in large cities, are aged 30-49, and say their finances are better off than they were four years ago.”

In addition, says Thau:

  • They think a businessman is best suited to turn the country around;
  • They feel that COVID-19 was not Trump’s fault;
  • They equate the Black Lives Matter protestors with the rioters attacking federal buildings and retail businesses;
  • They don’t want historic monuments torn down;
  • They dismiss the idea of defunding the police as “ridiculous”;
  • They want America to be first;
  • They oppose immigration policies that grant benefits to foreigners at their expense; and
  • They like a leader who fights back instead of a politician who “folds in the face of special interests.”

What is also revealing in the Zogby poll is how poorly Biden is doing among those swing voters. In none of those battleground states does he poll better than 23 percent.

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