This article appeared online at on Tuesday, June 30, 2020:

When Optimus pollsters asked 1,000 likely voters last week whom they would vote for if the election were held that day, 44 percent said Biden while 40 percent said Trump.

Not only is this within the survey’s margin of error (MOE) of 4.5 percent, it all but erased Biden’s eight-point advantage from just two weeks earlier.

A shift has become perceptible over the last couple of weeks and was confirmed by CNBC’s All-America Survey taken June 19 through June 22. It also polled 800 likely voters, who were asked a slightly different question: Who has the best policies for the economy? Forty-four percent said Trump did versus 38 percent who said Biden did.

Even more revealing, the All-America Survey revealed that among independents, Trump has a 42-percent to 26-percent advantage over Biden on best policies for the economy.

The results from Gallup, released on Monday, were even more helpful. Its survey of members of the general population, done from May 28 through June 5, showed that their perception of Trump’s handling of the economy, although briefly damaged by the virus-instigated shutdown, was “still on a par with the October ratings earned by Obama (45% in 2012) and George W. Bush (46% in 2004) before each won reelection.”

Gallup’s poll also revealed that the is now voters’ top concern going into the election. And that perception is key to Trump’s reelection, according to Jay Campbell, who served as the Democratic pollster for CNBC’s All-America Survey: “The may be what President Trump’s saving grace is going forward.”

Of course there are other factors at play, and the four months before the election in November is, in politics, a lifetime. But presumptive presidential candidate has serious problems: his increasingly obvious dementia and his extraordinary lack of enthusiasm among his supporters are just two among many.

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