This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, September 9, 2019:
Investors betting real money on the outcome of the presidential election in 2020 are picking Trump to obliterate whomever the Democrats nominate. It isn’t even close. One of those sites, Smarkets, reports that investors are currently putting Trump’s chances of winning next November at 44 percent compared to Elizabeth Warren at 16 percent and Joe Biden at 13.5 percent.
The other betting sites being tracked by RealClearPolitics (RCP) are unanimous: it will be Warren and not Biden who will be annihilated come next November.
This contrasts sharply with RCP’s polls at the national and state levels showing Biden with a strong, often double-digit, lead over Warren. Since June, only one national poll showed Warren so much as tying Biden. In every other poll, Biden has led Warren, sometimes by as much as 18 percentage points.
On the state level, RCP shows Biden leading Warren across the board. In Iowa, Biden leads Warren by more than ten points; in Bernie Sanders’ home state of New Hampshire, Sanders squeaks out a small advantage against Biden and Warren, but on a head-to-head basis Biden leads Warren by four points; in Nevada, Biden leads Warren by more than six points; in South Carolina, Biden’s lead over Warren is nearly 25 points; in California, Biden leads Kamala Harris (California is her home state) by two points, leaving Warren a distant third; in Texas, Biden leads Warren by more than eight points; and in Massachusetts, Biden is beating Warren by more than five points.
In addition to Smarkets, the other sites being tracked by RCP include 32Red, BetVictor, Bovada, Unibet, Ladbrokes, Betfair, and 888 Sports.
Biden isn’t helping his cause any, either. Biden’s age, his policies, his back-pedaling and shape-shifting, along with his lies and a failing memory are providing more than just material for late-night talk show hosts. Mouthpieces for the left, including the New York Times and the Washington Post, have given front-page space to concerns that Biden may not be the man for the job after all. David Axelrod, the campaign advisor to Barack Obama in 2008, has lit up his Twitter account: “It’s one thing to have a well-earned rep for goofy, harmless gags. It’s another if you serially distort your own record.”
Elizabeth Warren’s well-funded campaign, on the other hand, boasts an army of volunteers willing to burn shoe leather going door-to-door in the states she needs to win if she is to have any chance of beating Donald Trump next November. She is also starting to cut back-room deals with top Democrats, including Hillary Clinton. As NBC News noted, that conversation is “fraught” with danger, especially since Warren, in Hillary’s fading shadow, seeks to be the second woman to win the Democrat Party’s nomination and the first woman to be elected president:
Warren has made little effort to publicly highlight ties to Clinton, who is perceived by many on the left as too centrist and who was defeated in an election Clinton and her allies believe was heavily colored by President Donald Trump waging a misogynistic campaign. To the extent that Democratic primary voters fear a repeat scenario in 2020 – and to the extent that she’s competing with Sanders for the votes of progressives – there may be good reason for Warren to keep her distance from Clinton publicly.
Warren has already started conversations with the other Democrat candidates to gain their support, and their voters, in the event she is the chosen one to face Trump.
An unofficial poll taken by Politico in New Hampshire over the weekend revealed that grassroots support for Warren is growing under Sanders’ very nose. It reported that of the 100 delegates attending the Democrat Party’s annual convention who were polled, half have already decided whom they will support, a third of them naming Elizabeth Warren.
Unless Joe Biden is able to right his ship, Warren is likely to be the party’s nominee, say the odds makers. They are reporting that bettors are putting real money behind their bets, not just offering opinions about which candidate they think they might vote for 14 months from now.
But, according to the odds makers, while most are focused on the polls, investors with real money at risk are betting on Trump to ravage and destroy whomever the Democrats nominate.
RealClearPolitics: Betting Odds – Democratic Presidential Nomination
RealClearPolitics: 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination
The New York Post: Elizabeth Warren smartly sneaking up on weak, bloodshot Biden from the left