This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, April 8, 2019:
Teenagers with excessive testosterone were reported playing a game of chicken in Connecticut. Instead of facing off against each other with daddy’s Caddy, they were lying down in roadways at night or darting into oncoming traffic, daring drivers to hit them. From the news report:
Imagine you’re driving through the center of town, late at night, when you spot someone lying in the middle of the road … forcing you to slam on your brakes.
That terrifying thought is now a scary reality for people who live in East Hampton who claim young teens have been darting in front of cars and terrorizing drivers.
It’s not only teens playing this game many call “chicken,” but people who live in East Hampton said the teens are jumping in front of cars, darting through traffic and terrorizing drivers as they pass through the center of town.
When countries play chicken, the risks become exponentially higher. Last Friday the Trump administration raised the ante in its game of chicken with Venezuela’s dictator, Nicolas Maduro. The game now involves Cuba and, by extension, Russia.
During his speech to Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy in Houston, Vice President Mike Pence announced additional sanctions against the rogue Maduro regime running Venezuela:
The United States will continue to exert all diplomatic and economic pressure to bring about a peaceful transition to democracy [in Venezuela]….
[Pence upped the ante by declaring that] the time has come to liberate Venezuela from Cuba.
Immediately following his speech, the U.S. Treasury Department levied sanctions on 34 oil tankers owned or operated by PdVSA, Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, along with sanctions on two international shipping companies involved in shipping oil from Venezuela to Cuba. Said Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin: “Treasury is taking action against vessels and entities transporting oil [which are] providing a lifeline to keep the illegitimate Maduro regime afloat. Cuba continues to profit from, and prop up, the illegitimate Maduro regime through oil-for-repression schemes as they attempt to keep Maduro in power … Cuba has been an underlying force fueling Venezuela’s descent into crisis.”
Up until Friday, U.S. sanctions on Maduro and members of his Marxist regime have had little impact on weakening it. Despite international pressure from more than 50 countries supporting Maduro’s opponent, interim president Juan Guaido, Maduro has seen precious little loss of favor among his top military officials. With that pipeline providing Cuba with between 20,000 and 50,000 barrels per day of Venezuela heavy crude oil, Cuba has in turn been able to keep Maduro afloat with revenues (along with “advisory” services) of between $1 million and $2.5 million every day. If that pipeline is severed, it is hoped, according to an unnamed Treasury Department official, that Cuba and Russia will be forced to “recalibrate” their relationship with Maduro. “[The new sanctions] make [doing business with Cuba and Venezuela] even more radioactive,” the official said.
In simple terms, the increased sanctions will raise the cost to Cuba of sustaining Maduro – and the cost to Russia of sustaining Cuba – to the point where they both decide to cut their losses and cut Maduro loose. That’s the game those teenagers were playing in Connecticut: raise the risk and see if the oncoming car swerves away at the last minute.
If they don’t, said the unnamed US official, there would be additional sanctions coming from the U.S. in coming weeks, adding ominously that a military effort to remove the dictator continues to be “a very serious option.”
This is called “the double dog dare” (see Sources below).
The unholy alliance between Russia and Cuba dates back to the days of the Soviet Union. Russia presently has an embassy in Havana and a consulate-general in Santiago de Cuba. In turn, Cuba has an embassy in Moscow and a consulate in St. Petersburg.
When Putin ascended to power in Russia, he travelled to Cuba to meet with and cement his relationship with Cuban dictator Fidel Castro. In 2008, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev visited Cuba to ink a deal that allowed Russian oil companies to drill for oil offshore of the island while permitting Russian mining companies to mine nickel deposits there. In July 2014, Putin visited Cuba, following which he announced his decision to erase 90 percent of the island’s $35 billion debt to Moscow in exchange for permission to expand offshore drilling for oil by Russian companies.
Today there are an estimated 15,000 Cuban military, intelligence, and surveillance officials in Venezuela who are involved in training the colectivos (armed motorcycle gangs) tasked with quashing any latent resistance to the Maduro regime in the lower-class barrios through terrorism, torture, and the “disappearing” of members of that resistance.
Will the new sanctions succeed in raising the cost of sustaining Maduro by both Russia and Cuba to the point where they give it up and work instead to come to terms with Maduro’s replacement, Juan Guaido? Or will they harden further Maduro’s intransigence and Cuba’s and Russia’s determination to keep him power?
In other words will the diplomats in striped trousers double-daring each other end the game before it gets even more dangerous? Or will they continue to play chicken?
Wall Street Journal: U.S. Places Sanctions on Vessel, Companies for Delivering Venezuelan Oil to Cuba
New York Post: Mike Pence toughens posture toward Venezuela, Cuba backers