This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Friday, October 12, 2018: 

The Democrats not only expect to take back control of the in the November midterm elections, they’re already planning what to do when they do: impeach the president, continue to investigate Kavanaugh, repeal Trump’s tax reforms, and raise taxes. They think they will turn between 30 and 50 seats from red to blue.

After all, they have history and The Cook Political Report on their side. History says that the party occupying the White House will lose seats in the midterms, especially if it’s the president’s first term, and especially if his approval rating is in the 40s or lower. According toCook, 38 Republican-held seats are rated as “toss-up” or worse, with another 27 seats in the “lean Republican” category, meaning Republicans have a tentative advantage but the races are competitive. According to Dan Balz, writing in the Washington Post, “The party that holds the White House almost always loses seats in midterm elections, especially during a president’s first term, and especially when a president’s rating is below 50 percent.”

Almost always.

The Democrats’ biggest enemy is themselves. First, their obscene performance during the Kavanaugh hearings has energized the sleeping Republicans who in several taken during and after the hearings have awakened from their slumber and have closed the gap in generic voting almost to zero. CNN’s poll released on Monday showed severe damage being inflicted on the most critical part of the electorate the Democrats need to capture in the upcoming midterm elections: Independent voters. When asked “Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in the U.S. handled Kavanaugh’s confirmation hearing?” 58 percent of independent voters disapproved compared to just 30 percent who approved – a jaw-dropping 28 percent margin.

An NPR/ NewsHour/Marist poll taken during the hearings showed any “wide Democratic enthusiasm advantage that has defined the 2018 campaign up to this point has disappeared.” In a previous poll in July, there was a 10-point gap between the number of Democrats and Republicans saying that the November midterm elections were “very important.” That gap is down to two points, a statistical tie, according to the poll. Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute which conducted the poll, said “The results of [the Kavanaugh] hearings, at least in the short run, is the Republican base was awakened.”

According to a poll taken by Quinnipiac University just before the hearings began, the Democrat advantage in a generic vote had been cut in half compared to a similar poll taken just two weeks earlier. The September 12 survey showed Democrats with a 52-38 percent lead over Republicans, a 14-point gap. Two weeks later, in the survey taken between September 27 and 30, that advantage had shrunk to seven points, 49-42.

In its weekly poll released on Wednesday, Rasmussen Reports found that the Democrat advantage over Republicans in a generic poll had vanished altogether: 45-45. The previous week Democrats held a 5-point lead over Republicans, 47-42.

Helping along is the disgusting performance of Democrats during the funeral service for Senator John McCain. The funeral service of McCain was, according to the liberal New Yorker magazine, “the biggest resistance meeting yet”:

’s name was never mentioned. It didn’t have to be. The funeral service for John Sidney McCain III, at the Washington National Cathedral, on this swampy Saturday morning, was all about a rebuke to the pointedly uninvited current President of the United States, which was exactly how McCain had planned it.

Turning a somber time of reflection and prayer into a political resistance meeting reminded Monica Showalter of The American Thinker of another time when a funeral was turned into a political rally, and it cost the Democrats in the midterms. Wrote Showalter:

[Paul] Wellstone was a well-liked Democratic senator from Minnesota who died in a plane crash in 2002. In the midst of public turmoil back in Washington, what with Bush Derangement Syndrome going full blast and midterms eleven days away, his funeral ended up amounting to a political rah-rah session, a “pep rally” and a “partisan foot-stomp” for the Democratic Party instead of a memorial to a man who was supposedly loved by Democrats.


What it showed was that midterms were more important to Democrats than honoring a man who had died.  For the rest of us, it was just disgusting.

Eleven days later, the Democrats, instead of gaining in Congress, lost two seats and eight House seats.

With all the momentum on the side of the Republicans (thanks to the Democrats’ outrageous and offensive behaviors), the supposed Blue Wave could turn into Alabama’s Crimson Tide. For the record, ESPN predicts that the Tide, having already won six games, has an 80 percent chance of winning each of the remaining ones on its schedule.

This forecaster thinks the Democrats will suffer a defeat worse than the one they brought on themselves in November 2002.


An Ivy League graduate and former investment advisor, Bob is a regular contributor to  magazine and blogs frequently at, primarily on economics and politics. He can be reached at


Rasmussen ReportsGeneric Congressional Ballot   Generic Congressional Ballot Is All Tied Up

Townhall.comBlue Wave or Red Tide?

The Washington Post8 questions for the midterm elections: A blue wave or not?

FoxNews.comSean Hannity: The left’s Kavanaugh tactics should disgust every American

AmericanThinker.comWill McCain’s funeral turn into another Wellstone funeral?

NewYorker.comJohn McCain’s Funeral Was the Biggest Resistance Meeting Yet

WashingtonExaminer.comIndependents disapprove of Democrats’ handling of the Brett Kavanaugh nomination by a 28-point margin

TheBlaze.comStunning new poll reveals drastic turn in midterm elections

Background on Brett Kavanaugh

NPR.orgPoll: Amid Kavanaugh Confirmation Battle, Democratic Enthusiasm Edge Evaporates

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Results October 2018

October 2, 2018 – GOP Cuts Into Dem Lead In House Races, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds


The study conducted for CNN via telephone by SSRS, an independent research company. Interviews were conducted from October 04, 2018 to October 07, 2018 among a sample of 1,009 respondents.

The results of the November 2002 midterm elections

ESPN.comNot all undefeated records are created equal

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