This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Friday, July 6, 2018: 

Just two weeks ago in this space, the question was asked, “Will Americans Vote Their Pocketbooks this November.” The article reflected on the high level of satisfaction voters were enjoying according to Gallup, the highest percentage recorded since September 2005. It also noted that the president was enjoying “his highest approval rating since shortly before he took office” according to Gallup, which was confirmed by a similar poll by Rasmussen.

So the folks are happy, content, and satisfied. But are they employed? Gallup provided that answer as well, noting on Thursday that “Americans continue to recognize a robust U.S. job market, with 65% [of those polled from June 1 through June 13] saying that it is a good time to find a ‘quality job,’ similar to May. These are the highest readings in Gallup’s 17-year history of tracking this measure of Americans’ view of the employment situation.”

In addition, according to Gallup, a majority of Americans say the economy is getting even better, “as high as that measure has been since 2004.”

Along comes ADP, the national payroll company, which reported on Thursday that the U.S. economy added another 177,000 in June, while revising May’s numbers up by 11,000 to 189,000.

More than 60 percent of the job growth is happening in small- and medium-size companies, and the growth is taking place in every sector of the economy. The only exception is Information Technology (IT), which shrank by a nearly imperceptible 2,000 in June. Small and medium-size companies added more than 100,000 jobs, while the goods-producing sector (natural resources, mining, construction, and manufacturing) added 29,000 jobs in June. In the service sector, every category except IT (trade, financial, business services, education, service, and leisure and hospitality) showed job gains for the month.

Is a happy and employed electorate going to mess with the formula in November? As noted here,

Pocketbook issues certainly influenced the presidential election, especially among young voters between 18 and 26. According to a Bank of America poll taken just before that election, two out of three of them intended to “vote with their pocketbooks in this upcoming president election,” according to its survey.

Americans are both happy and employed. Many are likely to be happy to be employed. And if history holds, they will be happy to vote for the party in power come November.

Sources: Will Americans vote Their Pocketbooks this November? ADP numbers for June Private payrolls miss expectations as companies can’t find enough people to hire ADP reports 177K jobs added in June, ahead of Labor Dept. figures

ADP National Employment Report  June 2018

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 177,000 Jobs in June Gallup: Most Americans upbeat about job market Snapshot: Americans’ Views of Job Market Remain Upbeat

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