This article appeared online at on Wednesday, November 29, 2017: 

Poll results released on Monday and Tuesday show that Roy Moore has regained the lead over Doug Jones in the battle for the Alabama seat left vacant by Jeff Sessions. Emerson Polling reported that Moore now leads Jones 53-47 while JMC Analytics showed that Moore has recovered from being four points down against Jones earlier in the month to five points ahead as of Monday. That’s a massive nine-point swing in favor of Moore, according to JMC.

Change Research showed a similarly impressive rebound for Moore: Two weeks ago, Jones led Moore by three points but now lags Moore 49-44, a swing of eight points.

What’s behind the startling reversal? It has nothing to do with money. According to ad-tracking company Advertising Analytics, Moore is being outspent by Jones 10 to one. So far, Doug Jones’ campaign has spent $5.6 million in television and radio ads compared to just $600,000 by the Moore campaign. As a result, Jones has aired more than 10,000 spots on broadcast television in Alabama since the primaries while Moore has run just over 1,000.

It could be “campaign fatigue.” Voters are increasingly tired of all the advertising and, to preserve their sanity, have made their decision for whom they will vote on December 12 and are impervious to further promotions from either camp. According to Change Research, many Republicans who didn’t intend to vote at all are coming out in favor of Moore as a result of them disbelieving the charges of sexual misconduct being levied against him. Change Research reported that, according to its surveys, those who doubt the veracity of the charges against Moore are vocal about those doubts, with “97 percent say[ing] the accusations are garbage, and nothing could make them believe they are true.”

There are other factors at play as well. Undecideds are becoming “decideds” and, according to Spencer Kimball, a pollster for Emerson, 57 percent of them are now leaning toward Moore. Pro-life groups and evangelicals remain steadfast in their support for Moore over Jones, according to Kimball.

The steady drumbeat of real sexual predations by well-known national mainstream and Democratic Party leaders is also taking its toll on Jones. While Moore has steadfastly denied allegations of sexual misconduct from 40 years ago, major Democrats and members of the are being called out for their provable and undeniable predations. These include, but are not limited to, Harvey Weinstein, Bill Clinton, Anthony Weiner, Ben Affleck, John Conyers, Glenn Thrush, Charlie Rose, Al Franken, and now Matt Lauer, who was fired by NBC for “inappropriate sexual behavior in the workplace.”

As a result, questionable charges levied against Moore are increasingly being dismissed out of hand by Alabama voters thanks to their replacement by the steady cacophony of disclosures of real sexual impropriety by people related to or associated with Moore’s opponent.

As The New noted last week, “In the irony of ironies, the establishment Republicans and corrupt Democrats who want so desperately to keep Moore out of the are in building the case, and the momentum, for Moore to outlast Jones in the December 12 contest and take Jeff Sessions’ place as junior senator from Alabama.”

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