The ACP jobs report for November showed 118,000 new jobs were created in the private sector last month. This is hardly good news for the economy but better than I, or Wells Fargo, anticipated. The manufacturing sector is declining, confirming (as I noted yesterday) the recession call by ECRI last year. Wells Fargo thought we might see 80,000.
ACP isn’t the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) which is the big mack-daddy of employment tracking. They use a different methodology than does ACP and sometimes there is a divergence. But over time both outfits’ numbers are very close.
To parse the details:
118,000 new jobs in November, down from 158,000 in October.
19,000 new jobs were created by small businesses in November, down from 50,000 in October.
And, as expected, the manufacturing sector lost 16,000 jobs.
In December a year ago people were excited to see nearly 300,000 jobs created in the private sector. Later it turned out that a lot of them were temp jobs for the holidays. Job creation never touched 300,000 since, muddling around at about 100,000 ever since. This isn’t enough to restore the economy to good health. Or, put another way, there isn’t enough entrepreneurial activity to justify hiring at a level sufficient to absorb new entrants.
And that’s the key understanding from today’s ADP numbers: regulations, uncertainty about the fiscal cliff, the awareness that Obama has little interest in reviving the economy because of his totalitarian ideology and commitment to reducing the US to just another weak socialist state are all combining to keep entrepreneurs – the real job creators – from taking a risk on the future.
I frankly don’t see much to change these numbers from ADP or the BLS going forward. ECRI’s recession call appears accurate: they think it started last July. Nothing here from ADP changes that outlook for the near future.