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Rasmussen just posted its latest poll based on a three-day rolling average. It shows Romney ahead of Obama by 2 percentage points:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49 percent of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47 percent. Two percent (2 percent) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2 percent) are undecided.
The results are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, Sunday’s update was the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after the first presidential debate last Wednesday night.
I have seen persuasive evidence that Rasmussen gets closer to the real world than any other pollster. But they issued a caveat:
The numbers reflect a modest debate bounce for Romney. As with all bounces, it remains to be seen whether it is a temporary blip or signals a lasting change in the race…
The polling firm noted that “incumbent presidents often struggle in the first debate and do better in the second…”
So the jury is still out. And a 2 percent difference is well within statistical noise.
But there’s another poll that Rasmussen publishes that also sheds a little light on the matter: the president’s job approval rating:
A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection, the polling firm noted in its daily report. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 50 percent of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president’s job performance. Forty-nine percent at least somewhat disapprove.
I don’t know if this is helpful to you. It confirms that the race is going to be close. But I watch Rasmussen and put more credence in their polls than any other:
During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52 percent to 46 percent margin. Obama won 53 percent to 46 percent.
In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point.
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