John Hawkins – The 12 Key Senate Races To Watch In 2012

This year, most people have been focused on the Romney vs. Obama race, but there is also a battle going on for control of the Senate.

The is currently comprised of 47 Republicans, 51 Democrats and 2 liberal independents. That means the GOP would need to capture 4 seats for a takeover. Although that may sound like a heavy lift, keep in mind that this year there are only 10 Republicans up for reelection while 23 Democrats/liberal independents have to defend their seats.

Male elephant in Etosha National Park, Namibia...

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Hawkins describes himself as a “professional blogger,” whatever that means. He also has some business interests. But his analysis here is worth considering. I’ve long felt that the races are much more important than the race for the White House.

Here are the highlights of some of the 12 races Hawkins considers important:

State: Massachusetts
Seat Currently Held By: Scott Brown (R)
Competitors: Scott Brown (R) vs. Elizabeth Warren (D)
Current Ranking: Toss-up (50% chance of hold)
Analysis: Normally, a popular incumbent like Scott Brown would have nothing to fear from a far left-wing socialist who advanced her career by pretending to be an Indian. Unfortunately, we’re talking about a state that sent degenerates like Ted Kennedy and back to Congress year after year. This is a tight, back-and-forth race that still might break either way.

State: Indiana
Seat Currently Held By:Richard Lugar (R)
Competitors:Richard Mourdock (R) vs. Joe Donnelly (D)
Current Ranking: Leans hold (75% chance of Republican hold)
Analysis: Most people seem to be assuming that Mourdock is going to coast to victory, but at the moment, both candidates seem to be knotted in the low forties. Mourdock SHOULD win this race, but if he stumbles down the stretch or Republicans get complacent about this seat while Democrats go after it hard, this could turn into the Democrats’ best chance to pick up a GOP seat they’re expected to lose.

State: Wisconsin
Seat Currently Held By:Herb Kohl (D)
Competitors:Tommy Thompson (R) vs. Tammy Baldwin (D)
Current Ranking: Toss-up (50% chance of Democrat hold)
Analysis: Tommy Thompson is a popular former governor who looked to have this race well in hand, but the numbers have started moving Baldwin’s way. Either candidate could still pull this out.

Hawkins thinks the races in Montana, and Nebraska will be enough to tip the to the Republicans.

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