NBC’s Chuck Todd: There is suddenly an improvement in how people feel the direction of the country is going. Some Democrats have been telling me, that’s the Clinton bump, referring to Bill Clinton’s speech, Brian.
Brian Williams: And Chuck, it goes without saying, these are must-wins and some of these numbers are ahead of the wildest dreams of the Democratic campaigners.
Polls are like wind socks: they tell which way the wind is blowing and how strongly. The only problem with wind socks, and polls, is that winds can change.
Let’s see: in Ohio, poll numbers for the president hit 50 percent, for the very first time. Not bad for a sitting president, to hit 50 percent! In Virginia he couldn’t even do that: just 49 percent. Ditto for Florida: 49 percent. And each of these against a “me-too” candidate who can’t even throw a shadow!
I call part of this the “rally ‘round the flag” effect: with the country under attack around the world, partly (mostly?) due to the president’s weakness and willingness to kowtow to mini-tyrants, many of whom our government is supporting, people’s gut reaction is to support the president, regardless.
I’ve written elsewhere about the two college professors who are predicting a Romney win based on state-by-state analyses of unemployment numbers, as well as the Las Vegas odds maker who is also predicting a Romney win.
Intrade, as of this morning, is showing Obama with an apparently insurmountable lead of 67.8 to 33.8 for Romney. But the most highly accurate pollster, Rasmussen (according to Intrade) shows Romney ahead of Obama, 47-46, a statistical dead-heat.
There is a lot of wind coming from both camps, and the election isn’t until November.