Heading into July, the race was a tie, with the Gallup Poll showing each candidate at 46 percent in its head-to-head daily surveys. But something happened this week that appears to have changed the political equation.
I’ve been waiting for this to happen. The momentum shift is not only perceptible but becoming obvious. Back in June I reported on a Las Vegas oddsmaker with a remarkable record of calling presidential elections who picked Romney in a romp.
Lambro sees what I see:
Perhaps it was Romney’s choice of veteran Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, chairman of the powerful House Budget Committee. Or more evidence of the Obama economy’s persistent weakness and soaring gasoline prices. Or the tough TV ads Romney has begun running, after months of being punched around by an avalanche of negative ads in battleground states.
Lambro then lists the various indicators:
- Gallup shows Obama’s approval numbers tanking
- The same poll shows his disapproval numbers climbing
- Creating jobs: 37 percent approval, 58 percent disapproval
- The economy: 36 percent approval, 60 percent disapproval
- Federal budget deficits: 30 percent approval, 64 percent disapproval
So bad are these numbers that Gallup said: “Obama’s ratings on the economy are significantly worse than all three prior successful presidential incumbents at this same point in their first term.”
Many years ago I learned that the more heavily a bad product or service is advertised, the faster it’s taken off the market. That’s what appears to be happening here:
Increasingly, as his disapproval numbers get worse, the Obama campaign has been making things up that aren’t true. A sense of desperation and hysteria is creeping into their bipolar rhetoric, with Vice President Biden warning voters…that Mitt Romney will “put y’all back in chains.”
Historically, Gallup says, presidents who won a second term had near-50 percent job approval ratings. But with Obama’s stuck in the mid-to-low 40s, it looks like the end is near.