A new New York Times/CBS News poll illustrates the mass exodus of support for President Obama and the Democrat-controlled Congress in favor of the Republicans. Jim Rutenberg writes that “critical parts of the coalition that delivered President Obama to the White House in 2008 and gave Democrats control of Congress in 2006 are switching their allegiance to the Republicans…[They] have wiped out the advantage held by Democrats in recent election cycles among women, Roman Catholics, less affluent Americans and independents.
That same poll, however, notes that general overall disapproval of Congress “remains near its highest level in the history of the Times/CBS poll [while] Mr. Obama’s approval rating…is 43 percent among registered voters, which is about where President Bill Clinton’s approval rating was in the 1994 midterm elections when Republicans swept control of the House and the Senate.”
Four years ago, [independents] voted heavily in favor of the Democrats and in the presidential election they helped elect Barack Obama. This is the third election in a row where they voted against the party in power. They are not happy. [Emphasis added.]
That poll indicates that Democrats have lost ground among all voters, especially among those most likely to vote tomorrow. Republicans hold a double-digit advantage over Democrats, 50 percent to 40 percent. Especially damaging to the Democrats, according to that poll, is the loss of support among voters under age 30, “very much unlike their high level of engagement in the 2008 presidential campaign.”
Of the 29 categories in the Pew poll, Democrats held the advantage in November 2006 in 18 of them. In the October 2010 poll, Republicans hold the advantage in 24 of them. Especially notable are the changes in the categories of “white women,” moving from a +4 advantage for Republicans in 2006 to +20 currently. Those surveyed with “some college” moved from a +2 Democrat advantage to a +18 for Republicans, while “white mainline Protestants” moved from even in 2006 to +26 for Republicans.
Rasmussen continues to show that 62 percent of voters think it would be better for the country if most congressional incumbents were defeated this year, and that three out of five surveyed “continue to feel that neither Republican nor Democratic political leaders have a good understanding of what is needed today.”
Jerome Corsi notes that “the tea-party movement is driving American politics right now…and [that] movement is fundamentally an anti-incumbent movement, not a swing to embrace the Republican Party…” Corsi continues:
The Democrats are poised to lose the most in this year’s mid-term election simply because they are the party in power. The Republicans will lose in the next election cycle, unless the Republican Party stops moving toward the political center.
The tea-party movement is not ready to accept Republicans if the Republican Party [proves to be] nothing more than “Democrat-lite.”
Erick Ericson of RedState.com iterated Corsi in his “Open letter to the Freshman Republican Victors.” He warned the newcomers to beware of new friends “that you never knew you had. Remember that most of them are not actually your friends.” Also:
[They] will begin whispering sweet nothings in your ear wooing you to vote for them and their rules for the House and Senate. Remember that these same men are the exact same people that the voters rejected in 2006 and again in 2008.
Remember that every poll showing a Republican landslide on Tuesday also shows that the public hates these men…
You got elected by being the Party of No. Don’t let the sweet nothings of the Beltway suddenly convince you otherwise…
Do not trust Mitch McConnell and Lame-R! Alexander and John Boehner and Eric Cantor and Kevin McCarty even though they did so much for you. Remember, as much as they did for you, you are more important to them than they are to you. But for you, they would still be in the minority!
If you fight them you will be rewarded. If you succumb, the tea party will come for you…
It is well to keep in mind tomorrow that Republicans didn’t win the 2010 mid-term election: the Democrats lost.