Have nothing to do with the [evil] things that people do, things that belong to the darkness. Instead, bring them out to the light... [For] when all things are brought out into the light, then their true nature is clearly revealed...

-Ephesians 5:11-13

Tag Archives: Wall Street

U.S. Economy Adds Another 204,000 Jobs in April

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, May 2, 2018: 

The booming U.S. economy added another 204,000 jobs in April, down slightly from the (revised) 228,000 jobs it created in March, but still more than forecasters predicted. Those forecasters have consistently underestimated the health of the economy and their record remains unbroken. Economists polled by Econoday expected 190,000 new jobs in April.

This is the sixth straight month of job growth over 200,000 which continues to confound observers. “The labor market continues to maintain a steady pace of strong job growth with little sign of a slowdown,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.

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Conference Board Predicts Robust Economy for Rest of Year

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, April 20, 2018:

The report from the independent Conference Board released on Thursday confirmed what most already know: The U.S. economy is on a tear, and there appears to be nothing on the horizon to slow it down, at least for the next six to nine months. Said its Director Ataman Ozyildirim:

The U.S. LEI [Leading Economic Index] increased in March, and while the monthly gain [was] slower than in previous months, its six-month growth rate increased further and points to solid growth in the U.S. economy for the rest of the year.

 

The strengths among the components of the leading index have been very [robust] over the last six months.

The LEI, which bottomed out during the Great Recession in the middle of 2009, has rocketed from 73 to

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Dow Theory Sell? Not yet.

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Tuesday, April 10, 2018:

Investors who religiously follow Wall Street’s oldest, most successful market-timing tool, the Dow Theory, likely liquidated some, most, or perhaps all of their investments on Tuesday. They are already also likely regretting the move.

Strictly speaking, as The New American has noted in a series of three articles dating back to March 23, the theory tracks two primary indicators: the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Index (DJT). Investors following Charles Dow’s thinking (he never used his own theory to trade stocks) went on yellow alert following the market sell-off that began in late January. The market rebounded but never hit new highs. That put in place the floor — called “support” — for those two indexes. The theory states that if a subsequent sell-off takes those two indexes below the previous lows, investors should sell and wait for a better opportunity to buy back into the market.

For the record, the Dow pierced the floor several times but the Transportation Index — the Transports — didn’t, although it came close. Although The New American is not a market-timing newsletter, the remarkable bull market since the election of President Donald Trump has simply demanded that TNA track and follow it from a historical perspective.

The floor “support” for the Transports — based on its bounce back in February — is 10,136. A sell signal was generated on Monday when that index closed below it, at 10,119.

Those who sold any part of their stock holdings on Tuesday missed the rally on Tuesday that took the Dow to 24,408, a gain of 428 points (1.6 percent).

Is this a head fake? Raymond James’ chief investment strategist, Jeffery Saut, thinks so. In a note to his clients Saut explained why:

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Is the Bull Market in Stocks Over?

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, March 28, 2018:

Followers of the Dow Theory are having their faith in Wall Street’s oldest and most accurate market-timing model tested. Last week’s selloff triggered one of the last two indicators necessary for its followers to declare that the nine-year old bull market has ended.

Charles Dow never used his theory to trade stocks, but his followers have, with great success. It has outperformed the traditional “buy and hold” strategy by an astonishing 4.4 percentage points annually. Mark Hulbert, who watches the market watchers and publishes his results in his Hulbert Financial Digest, wrote that the key support levels to watch are 23,860 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and 10,136 on the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT).

Near the close on Friday, the Dow broke through support, but

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Tariff Reality Ignites Stocks, Affirms Dow Theory Bull Market Signal

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Tuesday, March 27, 2018:

The rebound in stocks on Wall Street on Monday and early Tuesday that followed last week’s sell-off was triggered by the reality that Trump’s tough talk on tariffs was little more than an opening bid to get China’s attention. It did, as was noted by Trump’s Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin: “We’re having very productive conversations with them. I’m cautiously hopeful [that we can] reach an agreement.”

It helped that over the weekend investors began to understand that Trump’s threat, even if fully applied, would have very little impact on the overall economy. Part of the initial confusion was the media’s constant repetition that Trump intended “to impose at least $60 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports” as the Washington Post expressed it. Whether deliberate or not, the Washington Post should have said that Trump intended “to impose tariffs on at least $60 billion worth of imports, particularly imports of steel and aluminum.”

That’s a vastly different, more accurate and less concerning statement.

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Bull Market in Stocks Remains in Place: Dow Theory

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, March 23, 2018:

Thursday’s selloff on Wall Street pushed the S&P 500 Index (which tracks the price performance of the stocks of 500 of America’s largest companies) into negative territory. All four of the widely-watched indexes — the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), the S&P 500 Index (SPX), the Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP), and the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) — dropped the most on Thursday since February 8.

Dow Theory followers were more focused on the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT), as it came perilously close to triggering the last of three indicators needed to declare that the Bull Market in stocks is over.

Ironically, the Dow Theory, developed by Charles Dow, the founder and first editor of the Wall Street Journal and co-founder of Dow Jones and Company, was never used by him to trade stocks. But followers of his theory are legion, which could spell trouble

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Hey, Prince! How Does it Feel to Have the Crude Oil Shoe on the Other Foot?

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, March 21, 2018: 

English: Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is about to enjoy learning what the Old Testament teaches about the sins of his father:

The Lord is slow to anger and abounding in steadfast love, forgiving iniquity and transgression, but he will by no means clear the guilty, visiting the iniquity of the fathers on the children, to the third and the fourth generation.

In the 1970s, many of us still remember the pain and suffering that Saudi Arabia’s kings inflicted on the United States and its citizenry in retaliation for U.S. support of Israel: long lines at gas stations, alternate days to fill up, double nickel highway speeds, daylight “savings” time, and other punishments.

The prince, born in 1985, won’t remember those days, but his father, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, most certainly does. And during his two-week sales tour of the United States, the prince is going to learn about justice delayed. He now needs the help of the United States to keep his sand castle from falling into the sea or disappearing into the Arabian desert.

Specifically, the prince has a dream – Vision 2030 – but

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Globalist Trump Advisor Gone, Will Americanist Take His Place?

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, March 7, 2018: 

DAVOS/SWITZERLAND, 27JAN10 - Gary D. Cohn, Pre...

Gary D. Cohn, FORMER Trump advisor

Following the president’s decision to impose tariffs on aluminum and steel imports, Donald Trump’s chief economic advisor, Gary Cohn, announced his resignation on Tuesday. Cohn had led a team pushing Trump not to impose those tariffs, but lost out to another team pushing to keep America first.

Wall Street took the news poorly, thinking that those tariffs could lead to a trade war. But the Wall Street Journal intimated indirectly in its coverage that something much different, and vastly more important, is at stake.

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Economy’s Performance Continues to Beat Forecasts

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, March 2, 2018: 

Three more measures of how the U.S. economy is performing once again beat economists’ forecasts: consumer confidence, jobless claims, and manufacturing. Tuesday’s release by the University of Michigan of its monthly “Survey of Consumers” showed all three of its indexes notching highs not seen in years. Its Index of Consumer Sentiment (“How are you feeling about your finances today?”) hit 99.7 compared to January’s robust 96.3. That is the second-highest level since 2004, reflecting, according to the survey’s chief economist Richard Curtin, consumers’ “favorable assessments of jobs, wages, and higher after-tax pay … overall, the data signal an expected gain of 2.9% in real personal consumption expenditures during 2018.”

The forecasters in this instance nearly got it right. The consensus reported by the Wall Street Journal expected 99.5. But that’s about as close as any of them got.

The U of M’s Index of Current Economic Conditions (“How does the economy look to you from your personal perspective?”) also beat expectations,

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Inflation Concerns Unfounded, Wall Street Moves Higher

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, February 14, 2018:  

Money-supply

Money-supply (this is an old chart, but you get the idea)

Once Wall Street traders read beyond the headlines released early Wednesday morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), they reversed the early selloff and bid the market higher.

Those traders were on high alert following the January report that wages had jumped nearly three percent last year. This triggered concerns that inflation was imminent, and that the Fed would institute interest rate increases which would slow the economy.

The headline from the BLS seemed to confirm those concerns:

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Despite Stock Sell-off, Few See Recession

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, February 9, 2018: 

Barbara Friedberg must be feeling pretty good right about now. Last October she made “10 Bold Stock Market Predictions for 2018,” and already she is scoring five out of 10:

Value stocks will triumph;

Cash will be king;

Inflation will inch up;

Market volatility will return; and

Bonds will offer higher yields.

The jury is still out on her prediction that “the Bull Market [in stocks] will end in 2018.”

Friedberg is no lightweight. She is a former portfolio manager and has taught finance and investments at several universities. She authored a popular book in 2014, How to Get Rich Without Winning the Lottery.

Despite the mantra that stocks’ performance is often a harbinger for future economic performance, few at present agree with her about the bull market in stocks being over.

The sell-off (which appears to be continuing as this is being written) in stocks is impressive. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, or The Dow) has lost 3,227 points since its high on January 26, or 12 percent, while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has dropped by 290 points, or 10 percent, since then as well. This is into “correction” territory and should be drawing negative outlooks on the future of the U.S. economy from every quarter.

But they can’t be found. Aside from perma-bears Michael Snyder and David Stockman, few of the usual suspects can be found who agree with Friedberg. When the Wall Street Journal polled its economists, they remained adamant about the health of the economy: GDP will continue to grow and unemployment will continue to drop:

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Markets Move Higher Following Crash Instigated by Obscure Agency

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, February 7, 2018: 

English: Logo of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc....

With Wall Street regaining its footing following the decline that started last Thursday, commentators in the mainstream media are still searching for the decline’s cause. Initially they claimed that it was an unexpected surge in inflation evidenced by the rise in the yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury notes approaching three percent (in early September it was closer to two percent). This was followed by the jobs report that announced that wages increased 2.9 percent year-over-year, up from just over two percent previously.

Writers at the Wall Street Journal dug deeper: The selloff was caused by — ready? — “volatility sellers, risk-party funds and algorithmic trading.” They then went into mind-numbing detail about how these strategies work and how the crash cost people using in them in excess of $200 billion.

Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, told TheStreet.com that maybe it was the Federal Reserve’s unhappiness with The Donald:

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Sorry, Inflation Worries are Not Behind the Selloff in Stocks

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, February 7, 2018:  

All manner of explanations for the recent market selloff in stocks have come out of the woodwork: the market has gotten ahead of itself; it was due for a correction anyway; it’s been 400 days since a three percent correction; and so on. The least informed is that all of a sudden there is inflation! See? The yield on the 10-year Treasury is up 80 basis points since September! That must mean there’s inflation! Couple that with the “surge” in wages just reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (2.9 percent year-over-year compared to 2.2 percent reported previously) and – voila! – inflation is back. Time to take profits!

Most commentators didn’t bother to check with the Fed, specifically the Cleveland Fed and the St. Louis Fed, which report the real numbers on inflation and money supply. First:

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Treasury Advisory Committee Says U.S. Must Borrow Trillions, Sending Stocks Down

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, February 5, 2018:

When an obscure advisory committee announced last Wednesday that the U.S. Treasury would have to borrow billions to fund Trump’s tax reform program, the stock market pitched headlong into a selloff, dropping Thursday, Friday, and early into Monday. Before the selloff, the Dow was approaching 26,300, but by the close on Friday it had lost 760 points. The rout continued into Monday, with the Dow down more than 1,200 points from Wednesday’s high. [Note the rout continued into Tuesday but found some footing by the end of the day.]

Much handwringing by commentators blamed the selloff on various technical factors:

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What’s in the GOP Tax Bill?

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, November 6, 2017:

The red "GOP" logo used by the party...

The GOP tax reform bill presented last Thursday attempts to be “revenue neutral” within 10 years. By giving most of the cuts to corporate taxpayers, there’s precious little left for the middle class to enjoy. The problem is not only the mathematics — trying to match the “give” with the “take” — but the politics: Democrats will work to scuttle any attempt to relieve fiscal pressure on entrepreneurs (i.e., capitalists) who are largely carrying the burden of supporting the government. Absent any attempt to cut spending — the tax bill’s 429 pages offer little help with that — what’s left, as has been said, is simply moving the chairs around on the deck of the Titanic.

First,

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The U.S. Economy is Built on Papier-mâché and Politicians’ Promises

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, November 1, 2017:

What a perfect definition of the American economy! Papier-mâché is defined as a “composite material consisting of paper pieces of pulp, sometimes reinforced with textiles, bound with an adhesive such as glue, starch, or wallpaper paste.” Add in a dose of political promises that everyone knows cannot be kept – not even close – and we have the American economy.

From a distance it looks pretty good. More than pretty good: to the untrained eye the American economy is setting world records, to wit:

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U.S. Economy Powers Through Hurricanes, Beats Forecasts With Three-percent Growth in Third Quarter

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, October 27, 2017:  

Putting in its best six-month performance in three years, the U.S. economy barely skipped a beat in the third quarter, growing at a three-percent annual rate. That was just slightly behind the second quarter, which grew at 3.1 percent, but way ahead of economists who had forecast growth for the third quarter at just 2.5 percent.

The Commerce Department said

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Maduro Blocks Opposition, Is Kept in Power by Banks and Marxist Allies

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, October 20, 2017: 

English: Logo of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc....

Days after the fraudulent election of mayors in Venezuela, Marxist dictator Nicolás Maduro banned the five mayors from the opposition party from taking office. He replaced them with party hacks, all but ending any opposition to his increasingly repressive regime. The election, in which 17 of the 23 mayoral races went to Maduro supporters, was widely criticized for being manipulated in order to give the country’s dictator the win.

Evidence that the election was fraudulent provided by the opposition is being ignored, with the head of Maduro’s National Electoral Council, Tibisay Lucena, calling the elections

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This Thoroughbred is Just Beginning to Feel His Oats

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Friday, October 20, 2017:

English: Thoroughbred racing at Churchill Down...

Thoroughbred racing at Churchill Downs.

It’s tempting to push the analogy comparing the U.S. economy to a Thoroughbred horse too far. But it is tempting. The Thoroughbred breed began around the time of the Industrial Revolution, when an English mare was crossbred with an imported Oriental stallion with Arabian, Barb, and Turkoman breeding. All Thoroughbreds can trace their pedigrees to three stallions imported into England in the 17th century. They were exported to Australia, Europe, Japan, and South America during the 19th century, and today an estimated 100,000 Thoroughbred foals are registered worldwide every year.

A Thoroughbred is tall, slender, athletic, and built for competition, usually on racetracks. Among the most famous are Citation, Phar Lap, Old Rosebud, Whirlaway, Roamer, Seabiscuit, and Man o’ War.

And, of course, the United States economy.

Starting at around 1800, the U.S. economy grew at such a rate that

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Venezuela’s Maduro’s Election Victory Likely to be Short-lived

This article was published by the McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, October 18, 2017:

Venezuela’s Marxist dictator Nicolas Maduro celebrated the phony, fraudulent election on Sunday as if it were real and meant something:

We have won 75 percent of the country’s governorships … Chavismo [the socialist policies that have driven once-prosperous Venezuela into the ground] is alive [and] triumphant.

He rejoiced in the election’s supposed slap against foreign devils, including the United States: “This victory is a moral and political feat of the Venezuelan people who have learned to resist the onslaughts of the oligarchy’s war and who have said ‘no to sanctions,’ ‘no to interventionism.’’’

He didn’t tell his supporters that his victory is likely to be very short-lived.

That his election was clearly manipulated was spelled out by U.S. State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert:

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Many of the articles on Light from the Right first appeared on either The New American or the McAlvany Intelligence Advisor.