Tag Archives: reality

Gunmakers’ Stock Prices Continue to Rise Following Las Vegas Massacre

Wednesday, 04 October 2017 06:07

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Tuesday, October 3, 2017:

Dianne Feinstein, member of the United States ...

Dianne Feinstein

After the Las Vegas massacre on Sunday night, the stock prices of gunmakers rose two to three percent on Monday. Following the noisy threats of more gun controls by anti-gun politicians, those stocks have continued to rise on Tuesday. Since the close of business last Friday, for example, the stock price of Sturm Ruger & Co. has jumped by 6.3 percent, while American Outdoor Brands Corp. (which owns Smith & Wesson) is trading seven-percent higher. The stock price of Vista Outdoor Inc., the conglomerate with ownership of ammunition makers American Eagle, Blazer, and Federal Premium, as well as gunmakers Savage Arms and Stevens Arms, is trading 3.5 percent ahead of Friday’s closing price.

The simple explanation for this was expressed by Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics:

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Justice Department Closes File on Officers Charged in Freddie Gray Case

Thursday, 14 September 2017 05:31

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, September 13, 2017:

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In a press release issued late Tuesday the Justice Department announced its decision not to prosecute six officers involved in the death of Freddie Gray in 2015:

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Hurricanes Hammer OPEC as Well

Tuesday, 12 September 2017 05:54

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, September 11, 2017:

Estimates are that Hurricane Irma knocked out the power to nearly six million Floridians’ homes and businesses, while both Harvey and Irma have either destroyed or heavily damaged 300,000 homes in Texas and hundreds of thousands more in Florida. Further estimates are that these two massive storms have reduced demand for oil by nearly a million barrels a day.

This is being reflected in the price of NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) crude oil dropping to $47 a barrel early Monday. Last Wednesday crude was selling at more than $49.

Part of the problem facing OPEC and its grand plan to cut production to raise oil prices was its assumption that

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Shiller’s CAPE, Harvey, Irma, and now Jose: How Much More is Needed for a Stock Selloff?

Saturday, 09 September 2017 06:08

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Friday, September 8, 2017:

English: (left) and meeting shortly after the ...

Republicans Smoot and Hawley

Wall Street prognosticators have watched Robert Shiller’s CAPE – “cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings” ratio – for years for signs that stocks are becoming overvalued. It’s now at a nosebleed level reached just before the October 1929 crash. The good news is that CAPE has been at that level ever since Shiller said that stocks were overvalued earlier this year. It is not a market timing tool, but more of an early warning indicator.

Short sellers have gotten smashed as the stock market continues to defy gravity. Bets against the SPDR S&P 500 exchange-traded fund, the largest ETF tracking that index, fell to lows in July not seen since May 2013.

But Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and now possibly Jose may finally bring things back to earth. The jump in unemployment claims for the week ending September 2, caused by Harvey and reported by the Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday, not surprisingly exceeded economists’ consensus. The increase of 62,000 for the week to

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Texas Instructor Protests Campus Carry by Wearing Helmet and Body Armor to Class

Tuesday, 15 August 2017 05:32

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, August 14, 2017:

Rather than resigning or noisily transferring to another, more “enlightened” school, or filing a frivolous lawsuit, geography instructor Charles K. Smith protested Texas’ new campus carry freedom by showing up on the first day of class wearing — ready? — a helmet and a bullet-resistant vest! Smith teaches at San Antonio College.

His foolishness made the papers, and he took full advantage of the publicity, claiming the new law somehow puts him at risk:

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OPEC Members Continue Non-compliance

Saturday, 12 August 2017 05:34

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, August 11, 2017:

The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) noted in its latest report released on Friday that non-compliance among OPEC’s members, and those non-members who also agreed to cut oil production, increased again in July. Non-compliance is the death knell for any cartel, and OPEC is no exception.

Specifically, non-compliance among the cartel’s members rose to 25 percent in July, the highest since the agreement was inked in January. Among non-OPEC members who signed on to that agreement, non-compliance was at 33 percent in July.

Put another way,

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Let Time and Not Sanctions Remove Venezuela’s Marxist Dictator

Saturday, 12 August 2017 05:27

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Friday, August 11, 2017:

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The Free Dictionary’s attempt to define the idiom “patience is a virtue” almost perfectly fits the personality style of America’s president:

Fred: The doctor has kept us waiting for half an hour! If he doesn’t call us into his office pretty soon, I may do something violent!

Ellen: Calm down, dear. Patience is a virtue.

One is tempted to change Fred’s name to Donald!

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Maduro’s Revolution Is Eating Its Own

Tuesday, 08 August 2017 05:43

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, August 7, 2017:

Português: Brasília - Entrevista do presidente...

Nicolas Maduro, the communist thug who now rules Venezuela

Following the typical historical pattern of socialist takeovers, the Venezuelan National Constituent Assembly (NCA) replaced the duly elected National Assembly on Friday, opening the ceremony with a speech from a Cuban communist guerrilla, followed by a speech reflecting a total disconnect from reality, and ending with giving the boot to a former Chavista who has in recent months become an embarrassment.

Reiterating the theme that the United States, and especially President Donald Trump, is responsible for Venezuela’s troubles, Fernando Soto Rojas, a Cuban-trained guerilla, opened the meeting of the NCA, shouting, “Yankee imperialism has not been able to stop the march of the people!”

The NCA then appointed Maduro’s foreign minister Delcy Rodriguez as head of the new body. Her total disconnect from reality was exposed by her claim that

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Maduro’s Socialist Revolution in Venezuela is Now Complete

Tuesday, 08 August 2017 05:26

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, August 7, 2017:

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Now that protesters have left the scene and Maduro has removed the primary thorn in his side, the socialist revolution begun by Marxist Hugo Chavez two decades ago now appears to be complete.

Before the new illegally elected National Constituent Assembly (NCA) took over on Friday, Maduro’s Prosecutor General, Luisa Ortega Diaz (shown), had become a thorn in his side. A hard-core Chavista, Diaz was appointed in 2007 and helped Hugo Chavez cement his position in place as Venezuela’s Marxist dictator. When her term ran out in 2014 she was appointed for another six-year term.

Things went sideways earlier this year when Maduro declared that

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Democrats and Fiscal Reality Present Roadblocks for Trump’s Budget

Wednesday, 02 August 2017 05:27

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Tuesday, August 1, 2017:

Deciding to move on following the failure of the Senate to pass the “skinny” ObamaCare repeal bill, the Trump administration announced on Monday its accelerated plans for passing its budget bill. According to Marc Short, President Trump’s director of legislative affairs, background work on the budget will take place in August in preparation for committee action in the House in September. Assuming little resistance there, Short hopes for a floor vote in October, a Senate vote in November, and the president’s signature on it immediately thereafter.

It’s good to dream big.

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Food Stamp Dependency Dropping

Tuesday, 25 July 2017 05:23

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, July 24, 2017:

In its report released last week the USDA reported that SNAP – the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, the old food stamp program – is shrinking, a little. In 2016, 44 million Americans and immigrants (legal and illegal) took advantage of taxpayers’ largess, costing them $71 billion. In 2010, there were 47 million receiving SNAP benefits costing taxpayers closer to $80 billion.

The program, which began in 1969, has virtually exploded, from just 2.9 million beneficiaries that year (costing taxpayers a paltry $250 million) to a peak of 47.6 million in 2013, which cost taxpayers $79.9 billion.

Part of the shrinkage is due to

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Trump’s Growth Target Reduced to 3 Percent

Tuesday, 18 July 2017 06:09

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, July 17, 2017:

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For Mick Mulvaney, President Donald Trump’s director of his Office of Management and Budget (OMB), reality is setting in. On the campaign trail Trump repeatedly promised four percent growth in the GDP (gross domestic product): “We’re bringing it from 1 percent up to 4 percent. And I actually think we can go higher than 4 percent. I think you can go to 5 percent or 6 percent.” (October, 2016). Later that month he doubled down during a speech to an audience in North Carolina: “I’m going to get us to 4 percent growth and create 25 million jobs over a 10-year period.”

Mulvaney’s editorial in the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday was unapologetic: “We are promoting MAGAnomics — and that means sustained 3 percent growth.” This new tag, which incorporates the acronym for “Make America Great Again,” is a play on “Reaganomics” from the 1980s:

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OPEC Continues its Descent into History as an Unlamented Footnote

Monday, 03 July 2017 09:51

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This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, July 3, 2017:

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Two weeks ago, the world price of crude oil officially entered a bear market, down more than 21 percent from its high early in the year. OPEC’s plan appeared to be on track, taking enough production off the market to drive the price to $60 a barrel. That decline has enormous implications for the cartel’s members, as nearly all of them need the revenues to keep their welfare and warfare states fully funded. The decline must be especially painful for Saudi Arabia, the leader of the pack, which announced plans last year to sell part (estimated to be between five and ten percent) of its precious Saudi Aramco oil company. The company, thanks to deliberately opaque disclosures, was estimated to be worth, depending on the price of oil, between $2 trillion and $10 trillion.

That’s the operative word: “depending.” OPEC had big plans for the funds it hoped to raise, encapsulated as its “Vision 2030.” As Mohammad bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, the nation’s Chairman of the Council of Economic and Development Affairs, wrote:

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Illinois Countdown to Junk Status Continues

Friday, 30 June 2017 05:15

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, June 29, 2017:

English: IL State Rep. Susana Mendoza 2011 Pho...

Susana Mendoza

Despite the clock’s ticking on the downgrade of Illinois’ $25 billion of indebtedness to junk status on midnight Friday, investors remain complacent. True, some mutual funds have offloaded $2 billion of Illinois debt in the last few months, but the Wall Street Journal provided salve to investors’ concerns that those remaining invested will be badly hurt. Unnamed analysts, wrote the Journal, “predict prices would drop only a few cents in the event of a junk downgrade.” They noted that Vanguard Group has $1.2 billion of Illinois bonds spread across seven of its bond mutual funds, with a company spokesman saying that it is “comfortable with the risk/reward” of investing in the state’s bonds.

Besides,

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Starving Venezuelans Risk 60 Miles of Open Ocean to Barter for Food

Monday, 26 June 2017 15:51

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, June 26, 2o17:

A stylized representation of a red flag, usefu...

The red flag of socialism is red for a very good reason.

The end stages of socialism in Venezuela are forcing citizens to do anything they can to obtain food for themselves and their families, including risking their lives. Mariana Revilla, a medical doctor reduced to making midnight excursions over 60 miles of open ocean to feed her family, was making her fifth trip to Trinidad when her boat capsized, costing her her life and the lives of two others assisting her.

Her boat contained seven tons of flour, sugar, and cooking oil that she had obtained through barter at one of the west coast towns of Trinidad, exchanging them for the tons of fresh shrimp she had brought with her. Others making the midnight trips would take with them anything of value to exchange for food and basic necessities, making the boats look like a floating garage sale: plastic chairs, house doors, ceramic cooking pots, and even exotic animals such as iguanas and macaws to trade for food.

Socialists promise that such things could never happen in the “paradise” they are determined to build. Americans for Prosperity (AFP) compared the promises to the reality which Venezuelans are now facing daily:

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Pew Research: Americans Getting More Comfortable With Firearm Ownership

Saturday, 24 June 2017 05:34

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, June 23, 2017:

Pew Research Center’s latest in-depth report on what it calls “America’s Complex Relationship with Guns” is revelatory. According to the report, released on Thursday, Americans are becoming more and more comfortable with guns and gun ownership, and less and less enchanted with more gun laws to fight perceived gun violence.

When 3,390 U.S adults were polled in March and April, they were asked whether it was more important to protect gun rights or to control gun ownership. In the year 2000, two-thirds of those polled then favored more gun control. Today, that has dropped to less than half,

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Illinois Sends “Dear Contractor” Letters Ordering Them to Stop All Road Construction

Friday, 16 June 2017 05:34

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, June 15, 2017:

English: A photograph of the Springfield Capit...

A photograph of the Springfield Capitol Building

Illinois contractors working on the state’s roads just received a “Dear Contractor” letter from the state ordering them to halt work because the state is out of money to pay them:

At this time appropriate funding is not available after June 30, 2017. Thus, work shall cease effective June 30, 2017.

Please bring all projects to a condition that will provide a clear and safely traveled way….

On July 1, 2017, all work shall cease except for maintenance.… The department will notify you when work may resume.

Right now the state has $14.5 billion in unpaid bills, an increase of nearly $4 billion just since the end of December, with no end in sight. When Republican Governor Bruce Rauner took office in January 2015, he promised he would bring order out of chaos by

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Will Rogers, Meet Andrew McCabe

Monday, 29 May 2017 16:56

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, May 29, 2017:

Will Rogers is credited for noting that “Good judgment comes from experience, and a lot of that comes from bad judgment.” Andrew McCabe is about to suffer the consequences of not following Will’s wisdom.

When Joe Lieberman withdrew his nomination for FBI Director last week, he claimed it was because of a potential conflict of interest in that he works for the same law firm as Trump’s lawyer who is defending the president against the faux Russia investigation. In reality,

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Moody’s Revelation: “Managed” Economies fail

Saturday, 27 May 2017 05:49

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Friday, May 26, 2017:

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Perhaps without knowing it, Moody’s downgrade of China one full notch on Wednesday exposed the fallacy of managed economies: that government bureaucrats with fancy degrees from the University of Chicago, Harvard, or Yale know what they’re doing. One of those fallacies that have been promoted for years came from Yale grad Arthur Laffer as far back as the Reagan administration. On the surface it sounds eminently logical: cut taxes and the economy will grow. The fallacy is knowing just how much to cut, whose to cut, when to cut, and how long to cut.

The Laffer Curve undergirds the whole idea of “supply side economics” –

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Moody’s Credit Downgrade of China First in Almost 30 Years

Friday, 26 May 2017 05:43

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, May 25, 2017:

China GDP

China GDP

Moody’s Investors Service, one of the big three credit-rating services in the country, downgraded China’s creditworthiness one full notch on Wednesday. It moved the world’s second-largest economy from Aa3 (“high quality [with] very low risk”) to A1 (Upper-medium grade [with] low credit risk”). It explained why:

The downgrade reflects Moody’s expectations that China’s financial strength will erode somewhat over the coming years, with economy-wide debt continuing to grow as potential growth slows.

That “potential growth” has been slowing since at least 2010. In that year Chinese government agencies reported growth in excess of 10 percent. By 2014, it had slowed to 7.3 percent, to 6.9 percent in 2015, and is now at a reported 6.7 percent.

Moody’s is late to the game.

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