As soon as Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) announced that hiring slowed in April compared to March, with 199,000 new jobs being the lowest since last September, the experts began scratching their heads. Joel Parkken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisors which produces the monthly reports for ADP said that “this deceleration seems consistent with other incoming data” and that it also means that Friday’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will show that the unemployment rate will stay at 8.2 percent, the same as last month.
ADP also revised downward last month’s jobs numbers from 209,000 to 201,000, and indicated that 123,000 service jobs were added in April while manufacturing lost 4,000 jobs. Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics who estimated that job growth would be 175,000 for the month, is now backtracking:
Obviously, the weak ADP reading means that there are now clear downside risks to our estimate…Indeed, it is possible we could see a repeat of March, when payrolls [reported by the BLS] increased by only 120,000.
Looking back over the last five months of ADP data, however, gives a better picture of the economy and jobs. Since November total payrolls have increased by 1 million, or about 200,000 jobs per month. Two-thirds of those jobs were created in the service industry while one-third was in the goods producing sector, with only about 15,000 jobs being created in the heavy manufacturing sector every month.
But this report from the payroll giant, which tracks job growth closely, differs from the survey of