Have nothing to do with the [evil] things that people do, things that belong to the darkness. Instead, bring them out to the light... [For] when all things are brought out into the light, then their true nature is clearly revealed...

-Ephesians 5:11-13

Tag Archives: Polls

Alabama Judge Roy Moore IS a Radical

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, September 13, 2017:

In his attack on former Alabama Judge Roy Moore (shown below), Matthew Sheffield, writing in the left-liberal Salon magazine, actually got it right: former Alabama Judge Roy Moore is a radical. Wrote Sheffield:

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Why Can’t ObamaCare be Repealed?

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, July 31, 2017:

For more than six years Republicans have promised that, given the chance, they would repeal the odious, expensive, and unconstitutional healthcare takeover called ObamaCare. Seven times they have voted to repeal it, knowing that then-President Obama, its primary promulgator and author, would veto it.

But voters believed them and when Trump beat Democrat Hillary Clinton in November, it was going to be a shoo-in: full and total repeal at the top of the list. At least that’s what Rep. Mo Brooks, a Republican from Alabama, thought. So he prepared a bill: simple, straightforward, two sentences long:

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Puerto Rico’s Governor Seeks an American Taxpayer Bailout

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, June 12, 2017:

Ever since he announced his campaign for governor of Puerto Rico, Ricardo Rossello, who was installed as the island’s new governor in January, has been pushing for statehood. Offloading his country’s financial problems onto American taxpayers is the American way. By gaining statehood, Puerto Rico would be poorer than Mississippi, the poorest of the American states, and therefore would be the likely recipient of federal largesse by the truckload. As Rossello said so clearly,

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Americans, Europeans Agree: Trump Is Right on Immigration

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, February 13, 2017:

English: Nigel Farage at Lord's cricket ground...

Nigel Farage

A poll by the Royal Institute of International Affairs (RIIA, also known as Chatham House), the British sister organization to our Council of Foreign Relations (CFR), taken a month before President Donald Trump issued his temporary suspension on refugees, showed widespread and increasing support among Europeans for his actions. Across all 10 of the European countries polled, 55 percent of those polled agreed that all further immigration from “mainly Muslim” countries should be stopped while only 20 percent disagreed. In no country did those disagreeing exceed 32 percent.

The results were “striking and sobering,”

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Can the American Dream be Revived?

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, January 9, 2017:

English: Statue of Liberty Gaeilge: Dealbh na ...

The term American Dream was coined by James Trustow Adams in 1931, just as the economy was entering the worst of the Great Depression. In The Epic of America, Adams wrote:

[It is] that dream of a land in which life should be better and richer and fuller for everyone, with opportunity for each according to ability or achievement….

 

It is not a dream of motor cars and high wages merely, but a dream of a social order in which each man and each woman shall be able to attain to the fullest stature of which they are innately capable, and be recognized by others for what they are, regardless of the fortuitous circumstances of birth or position.

In 2012, American cultural historian Lawrence Samuel, author of The American Dream: A Cultural History, echoed Adams:

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Three Election Models Pick Trump to Win on Tuesday

English: Donald Trump at a press conference an...

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, November 7, 2016:  

Poll-watching junkies are having a field day. There is one poll or another publishing its results on an almost hourly basis. As this is being written on noon Sunday, for instance, Investors Business Daily (IBD), which touts its survey as “the most accurate poll in recent presidential elections,” has Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton by one point. The USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times’ “Daybreak” poll shows Trump ahead of Clinton by five points.

Nate Silver, in his FiveThirtyEight 2016 Election Forecast, has Clinton’s chance of winning at 64.7 percent versus Trump’s 35.3 percent. Silver predicts Clinton will win 48.4 percent of the popular vote (versus Trump’s 45.5 percent, which will give her 291 Electoral College votes to Trump’s 246.

In its running summary of other polls, Real Clear Politics shows Clinton up by 1.8 percent over Trump in the popular vote, while in the Electoral College it’s Clinton with 216 and Trump with 164, leaving 158 votes as “toss ups.”

There are at least two other prognosticators who don’t rely on polls at all, and they are predicting Trump will win on Tuesday. The first was explained by Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge back in January when he said that the stock market would predict November’s winner:

This relationship occurs because the stock market reflects the economic outlook in the weeks leading up to the election. A rising stock market indicates an improving economy, which means rising confidence and increases the chances of the incumbent party’s re-election.

 

Therefore, your time might be better spent from August through October watching the stock market rather than the debates if you want to know who will be President for the next four years.

Right on cue the stock market has declined nine days in a row (through last Friday), the first time that has happened since 1980. But more importantly is how it has behaved since Monday, August 1. The S&P 500 Index has declined by 4.5 percent which, according to Durden, translates into an 86 percent chance of Trump’s winning on Tuesday.

And then there’s the professor from Stony Brook University, Helmut Norpoth, and his “Primary Model”. Writes Norpoth on his website:

Winning early primaries is a major key for electoral victory in November. Trump won the Republican primaries in both New Hampshire and South Carolina, while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders split the Democratic primaries in those states….

 

For the record the Primary Model … has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in all five presidential elections since it was introduced in 1996….

 

For elections from 1912 to 2012 the Primary Model [has retroactively picked] the winner … every time except in 1960.

 

Accordingly, Norpoth gives Trump an 87 percent chance of winning Tuesday’s election.

There’s also his “pendulum” model:

What favors the GOP in 2016 as well … is the cycle of presidential elections. After two terms of Democrat Barack Obama in the White House the electoral pendulum is poised to swing to the GOP this year….

 

Donald Trump is predicted to defeat Hillary Clinton by 52.5 percent to 47.5 percent.

In the “for what it’s worth” category, as this is being written, futures for Monday’s open are also turning negative. If the market closes down again on Monday, the 10th day in a row, it will only add validity to both Durden’s and Norpoth’s prediction: Trump will win on Tuesday.

Also, Professor Norpoth has such confidence in his models that he is using his own money to bet on Trump to win.

The S&P 500 is Picking Trump to Win

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, November 7, 2016:

Back in January, Tyler Durden (a pseudonym), writing at ZeroHedge, said one would be far better off watching the markets than the debates if one wanted to know who the next president would be:

This relationship occurs because the stock market reflects the economic outlook in the weeks leading up to the election. A rising stock market indicates an improving economy, which means rising confidence and increases the chances of the incumbent party’s re-election.

 

Therefore, your time might be better spent from August through October watching the stock market rather than the debates if you want to know who will be President for the next four years.

Right on cue, the stock market has declined nine days in a row (through last Friday), the first time that has happened since 1980. But more importantly

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Americans Love Their Guns: All 660 Million of Them

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Friday, October 28, 2016:  

English: A Luger P08 pistol with long barrel a...

A Luger P08 pistol with long barrel and snail magazine. Taken at the National Firearms Museum.

“If you repeat a lie often enough, it becomes the truth” is attributed to Joseph Goebbels. Whether the mainstream media intends it or not, it certainly has an estimate of how many guns are owned by Americans:

Time magazine:  270 to 310 million,

National Public Radio: More than 300 million,

Washington Post:  357 million,

New York Times: 280 to 320 million, and so on.

This so annoyed the blogger at WeaponsMan, a former Special Forces soldier, that he invested hours in his search for the truth. He found it by

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Permitless Carry Passes in Missouri; Gun Sales Soar Nationwide

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, October 5, 2016:

Holster

Three weeks ago Missouri became the fourth state this year to allow “permitless” concealed carry of firearms by its citizens, its legislators voting to override Democrat Governor Jay Nixon’s veto of the bill. Missouri joins West Virginia, Mississippi, and Idaho in allowing its citizens this year to enjoy rights enshrined in the Second Amendment to the Constitution, bringing the total of such states to 12.

As Tim Schmidt, president of the U.S. Concealed Carry Association — which provides training and liability insurance coverage for its members — put it:

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Trump’s New Advisor Conway to Wage “War of Attrition” on Clinton

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, August 22, 2016:  

Hired in July to augment Donald Trump’s campaign staff and then promoted to be his campaign manager six weeks later, Kellyanne Conway (pictured) has announced, “We’re in a war of attrition” in the campaign against Hillary Clinton.

A war of attrition is won when the enemy has sustained such continuous and devastating losses that he (or she) leaves the field of contest. And that’s why, says Conway, “The content-free campaign is over. We are going to force the conversation to issues, because the issues favor Donald Trump.”

Conway may just have what it will take to win that war.

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Trump Turbocharges His Campaign, Adding Powerhouse Advisors

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, August 17, 2016:  

On Tuesday evening Donald Trump announced the addition of Stephen Bannon to his campaign and the promotion of Kellyanne Conway (above)to a position on his staff, explaining, “I want to win. That’s why I’m bringing on fantastic people who know how to win and love to win.”

Later he told the Associated Press,

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Election Pollsters Have One More Thing to Worry About: New Gun Owners

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, August 10, 2016: 

English: A sign in rural United States adverti...

The difference between pollsters like Rasmussen and prognosticators like Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight is like the difference between lightning and a lightning bug. Polling is tricky enough. Prognosticating is a whole other matter.

Rasmussen (and its peers) must develop the questions, determine whom to ask, decide when to call (weekdays, weekends, dinner time, etc.), and then confirm that they’re talking to the right person. They have to take into account that sometimes people will give wrong answers, or hide behind their answers because they have opinions that aren’t mainstream. Once the poll is taken, they must determine just how variable – how reliable – the results really are. That explains part of the plus or minus calculation included in them.

Silver (and his peers) build models based on past experience. It’s vastly more complicated

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Venezuela’s President Deliberately Stalling Recall Referendum

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, July 28, 2016: 

Português: Brasília - O chanceler da Venezuela...

Nicolas Maduro

If Venezuela’s Marxist dictator, President Nicolas Maduro, can remain in power until January 10, 2017, then he will remain the country’s leader for the foreseeable future. Even if elections are then held and oust the president, Maduro will be replaced by his hand-picked second-in-command and continue the socialist “revolution” that is turning Venezuela back into a banana republic.

That’s why he is doing everything he can to stall a recall referendum that would lead to his recall before then. Accordingly he is

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United States No Longer First in Global Competitiveness

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, June 1, 2016:  

English: Cropped version of Thomas Jefferson, ...

Thomas Jefferson

According to a study just released by the International Institute for Management Development (IIMD), the “U.S. economy is no longer the most competitive and pro-business in the world.” It has held the top spot for the last three years but has, thanks to increasing government regulation and taxation, slipped to third place. Said Arturo Bris, IIMD’s director, “The U.S. still boasts the best economic performance in the world, but there are many other factors that we take into account when assessing competitiveness. The common pattern among all of the countries in the top 20 is their focus on business-friendly regulation, physical and intangible infrastructure and inclusive institutions.”

Based on its analysis of more than 300 criteria, the United States no longer excels based on

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Trump Lines up Financial Backers, Gains NRA’s Endorsement

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, May 23, 2016:  

In a brazen but brilliant marketing move, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump made public his list of potential Supreme Court nominees, which were analyzed and pronounced “acceptable” by many of those not yet in Trump’s corner. He managed to secure the blessings — including financial —of several wealthy supporters. He spent time calling on Republican Party insiders, including House Speaker Paul Ryan, in his attempts to enlist their support for his campaign. And then, to cap off the week, he secured the endorsement of the National Rifle Association (NRA) at its annual convention even before he had said a single word.

In preaching to the choir at the NRA’s convention Friday evening, he took the opportunity to make clear — if clarity was necessary for that partisan audience — how much of a threat he thinks Hillary Clinton would be to gun ownership and the Second Amendment:

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Trump’s Momentum Continues to Build While Hillary Struggles with Bernie

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, May 23, 2016:

English: This photo depicts Donald Trump's sta...

This photo depicts Donald Trump’s star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame.

Donald Trump had, simply put, an amazing week. With two billionaires already endorsing him (T. Boone Pickens and Sheldon Adelson), he added several more, including one with enormous credibility in Republican circles. To top it off he was endorsed by the NRA at its annual convention Friday night even before he got to the podium.

Hillary Clinton, on the other hand,

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Hillary Loses West Virginia to Sanders, Ties With Trump in Key States

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, May 11, 2016:  

Hillary Clinton’s loss to Bernie Sanders in West Virginia’s primary on Tuesday did little to change her trajectory toward her party’s nomination in July in Philadelphia, but the fact she is still having to expend resources and energy in a battle she should have won long ago is taking its toll.

Exit polls following the primary illustrate the point:

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Trump: I’m Now Running Against “Crooked Hillary”

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, April 27, 2016:  

As a basketball player plants his pivot foot to the floor, allowing him to move away from danger and toward opportunity, Donald Trump has pivoted his campaign away from further dialogue with and attacks on Ted Cruz and John Kasich and toward his increasingly obvious opponent in the general election, Hillary Clinton.

Some are calling it a master stroke, basing his pivot on the assumption that

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Trump Takes New York, Closer to Shutting the Door on Cruz

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, April 20, 2016: 

speaking at CPAC in Washington D.C. on Februar...

As expected, both leading candidates in the Republican and Democratic primaries in New York on Tuesday extended their leads over their rivals. Hillary Clinton took 135 delegates to Sanders’ 104, all but cementing into place her nomination at the Democrat convention in July. Donald Trump extended his lead over his nearest rival, Ted Cruz, by running the board, taking 89 delegates to none for Cruz.

What was unexpected was the

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Opposition Gearing Up to Colo. Single-payer Healthcare Proposal

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, April 15, 2016: 

Mark Twain is alleged to have said that “a lie can travel halfway around the world before truth can get its boots on.” In Colorado Initiative 20 is already on the ballot in November and opposition to it is just getting its boots on.

If passed, it would be the 69th amendment to Colorado’s state constitution and would collect all the state’s healthcare programs — Medicaid, children’s healthcare, and all the other state and federal healthcare programs — under one roof. It would replace ObamaCare with what supporters are calling ColoradoCare. And it would double the state’s budget in its first year.

The language of the ballot initiative question may be enough to kill it:

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Many of the articles on Light from the Right first appeared on either The New American or the McAlvany Intelligence Advisor.