Have nothing to do with the [evil] things that people do, things that belong to the darkness. Instead, bring them out to the light... [For] when all things are brought out into the light, then their true nature is clearly revealed...

-Ephesians 5:11-13

Tag Archives: Polls

Three Election Models Pick Trump to Win on Tuesday

English: Donald Trump at a press conference an...

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, November 7, 2016:  

Poll-watching junkies are having a field day. There is one poll or another publishing its results on an almost hourly basis. As this is being written on noon Sunday, for instance, Investors Business Daily (IBD), which touts its survey as “the most accurate poll in recent presidential elections,” has Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton by one point. The USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times’ “Daybreak” poll shows Trump ahead of Clinton by five points.

Nate Silver, in his FiveThirtyEight 2016 Election Forecast, has Clinton’s chance of winning at 64.7 percent versus Trump’s 35.3 percent. Silver predicts Clinton will win 48.4 percent of the popular vote (versus Trump’s 45.5 percent, which will give her 291 Electoral College votes to Trump’s 246.

In its running summary of other polls, Real Clear Politics shows Clinton up by 1.8 percent over Trump in the popular vote, while in the Electoral College it’s Clinton with 216 and Trump with 164, leaving 158 votes as “toss ups.”

There are at least two other prognosticators who don’t rely on polls at all, and they are predicting Trump will win on Tuesday. The first was explained by Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge back in January when he said that the stock market would predict November’s winner:

This relationship occurs because the stock market reflects the economic outlook in the weeks leading up to the election. A rising stock market indicates an improving economy, which means rising confidence and increases the chances of the incumbent party’s re-election.

 

Therefore, your time might be better spent from August through October watching the stock market rather than the debates if you want to know who will be President for the next four years.

Right on cue the stock market has declined nine days in a row (through last Friday), the first time that has happened since 1980. But more importantly is how it has behaved since Monday, August 1. The S&P 500 Index has declined by 4.5 percent which, according to Durden, translates into an 86 percent chance of Trump’s winning on Tuesday.

And then there’s the professor from Stony Brook University, Helmut Norpoth, and his “Primary Model”. Writes Norpoth on his website:

Winning early primaries is a major key for electoral victory in November. Trump won the Republican primaries in both New Hampshire and South Carolina, while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders split the Democratic primaries in those states….

 

For the record the Primary Model … has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in all five presidential elections since it was introduced in 1996….

 

For elections from 1912 to 2012 the Primary Model [has retroactively picked] the winner … every time except in 1960.

 

Accordingly, Norpoth gives Trump an 87 percent chance of winning Tuesday’s election.

There’s also his “pendulum” model:

What favors the GOP in 2016 as well … is the cycle of presidential elections. After two terms of Democrat Barack Obama in the White House the electoral pendulum is poised to swing to the GOP this year….

 

Donald Trump is predicted to defeat Hillary Clinton by 52.5 percent to 47.5 percent.

In the “for what it’s worth” category, as this is being written, futures for Monday’s open are also turning negative. If the market closes down again on Monday, the 10th day in a row, it will only add validity to both Durden’s and Norpoth’s prediction: Trump will win on Tuesday.

Also, Professor Norpoth has such confidence in his models that he is using his own money to bet on Trump to win.

The S&P 500 is Picking Trump to Win

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, November 7, 2016:

Back in January, Tyler Durden (a pseudonym), writing at ZeroHedge, said one would be far better off watching the markets than the debates if one wanted to know who the next president would be:

This relationship occurs because the stock market reflects the economic outlook in the weeks leading up to the election. A rising stock market indicates an improving economy, which means rising confidence and increases the chances of the incumbent party’s re-election.

 

Therefore, your time might be better spent from August through October watching the stock market rather than the debates if you want to know who will be President for the next four years.

Right on cue, the stock market has declined nine days in a row (through last Friday), the first time that has happened since 1980. But more importantly

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Americans Love Their Guns: All 660 Million of Them

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Friday, October 28, 2016:  

English: A Luger P08 pistol with long barrel a...

A Luger P08 pistol with long barrel and snail magazine. Taken at the National Firearms Museum.

“If you repeat a lie often enough, it becomes the truth” is attributed to Joseph Goebbels. Whether the mainstream media intends it or not, it certainly has an estimate of how many guns are owned by Americans:

Time magazine:  270 to 310 million,

National Public Radio: More than 300 million,

Washington Post:  357 million,

New York Times: 280 to 320 million, and so on.

This so annoyed the blogger at WeaponsMan, a former Special Forces soldier, that he invested hours in his search for the truth. He found it by

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Permitless Carry Passes in Missouri; Gun Sales Soar Nationwide

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, October 5, 2016:

Holster

Three weeks ago Missouri became the fourth state this year to allow “permitless” concealed carry of firearms by its citizens, its legislators voting to override Democrat Governor Jay Nixon’s veto of the bill. Missouri joins West Virginia, Mississippi, and Idaho in allowing its citizens this year to enjoy rights enshrined in the Second Amendment to the Constitution, bringing the total of such states to 12.

As Tim Schmidt, president of the U.S. Concealed Carry Association — which provides training and liability insurance coverage for its members — put it:

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Trump’s New Advisor Conway to Wage “War of Attrition” on Clinton

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, August 22, 2016:  

Hired in July to augment Donald Trump’s campaign staff and then promoted to be his campaign manager six weeks later, Kellyanne Conway (pictured) has announced, “We’re in a war of attrition” in the campaign against Hillary Clinton.

A war of attrition is won when the enemy has sustained such continuous and devastating losses that he (or she) leaves the field of contest. And that’s why, says Conway, “The content-free campaign is over. We are going to force the conversation to issues, because the issues favor Donald Trump.”

Conway may just have what it will take to win that war.

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Trump Turbocharges His Campaign, Adding Powerhouse Advisors

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, August 17, 2016:  

On Tuesday evening Donald Trump announced the addition of Stephen Bannon to his campaign and the promotion of Kellyanne Conway (above)to a position on his staff, explaining, “I want to win. That’s why I’m bringing on fantastic people who know how to win and love to win.”

Later he told the Associated Press,

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Election Pollsters Have One More Thing to Worry About: New Gun Owners

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, August 10, 2016: 

English: A sign in rural United States adverti...

The difference between pollsters like Rasmussen and prognosticators like Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight is like the difference between lightning and a lightning bug. Polling is tricky enough. Prognosticating is a whole other matter.

Rasmussen (and its peers) must develop the questions, determine whom to ask, decide when to call (weekdays, weekends, dinner time, etc.), and then confirm that they’re talking to the right person. They have to take into account that sometimes people will give wrong answers, or hide behind their answers because they have opinions that aren’t mainstream. Once the poll is taken, they must determine just how variable – how reliable – the results really are. That explains part of the plus or minus calculation included in them.

Silver (and his peers) build models based on past experience. It’s vastly more complicated

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Venezuela’s President Deliberately Stalling Recall Referendum

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, July 28, 2016: 

Português: Brasília - O chanceler da Venezuela...

Nicolas Maduro

If Venezuela’s Marxist dictator, President Nicolas Maduro, can remain in power until January 10, 2017, then he will remain the country’s leader for the foreseeable future. Even if elections are then held and oust the president, Maduro will be replaced by his hand-picked second-in-command and continue the socialist “revolution” that is turning Venezuela back into a banana republic.

That’s why he is doing everything he can to stall a recall referendum that would lead to his recall before then. Accordingly he is

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United States No Longer First in Global Competitiveness

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, June 1, 2016:  

English: Cropped version of Thomas Jefferson, ...

Thomas Jefferson

According to a study just released by the International Institute for Management Development (IIMD), the “U.S. economy is no longer the most competitive and pro-business in the world.” It has held the top spot for the last three years but has, thanks to increasing government regulation and taxation, slipped to third place. Said Arturo Bris, IIMD’s director, “The U.S. still boasts the best economic performance in the world, but there are many other factors that we take into account when assessing competitiveness. The common pattern among all of the countries in the top 20 is their focus on business-friendly regulation, physical and intangible infrastructure and inclusive institutions.”

Based on its analysis of more than 300 criteria, the United States no longer excels based on

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Trump Lines up Financial Backers, Gains NRA’s Endorsement

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, May 23, 2016:  

In a brazen but brilliant marketing move, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump made public his list of potential Supreme Court nominees, which were analyzed and pronounced “acceptable” by many of those not yet in Trump’s corner. He managed to secure the blessings — including financial —of several wealthy supporters. He spent time calling on Republican Party insiders, including House Speaker Paul Ryan, in his attempts to enlist their support for his campaign. And then, to cap off the week, he secured the endorsement of the National Rifle Association (NRA) at its annual convention even before he had said a single word.

In preaching to the choir at the NRA’s convention Friday evening, he took the opportunity to make clear — if clarity was necessary for that partisan audience — how much of a threat he thinks Hillary Clinton would be to gun ownership and the Second Amendment:

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Trump’s Momentum Continues to Build While Hillary Struggles with Bernie

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, May 23, 2016:

English: This photo depicts Donald Trump's sta...

This photo depicts Donald Trump’s star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame.

Donald Trump had, simply put, an amazing week. With two billionaires already endorsing him (T. Boone Pickens and Sheldon Adelson), he added several more, including one with enormous credibility in Republican circles. To top it off he was endorsed by the NRA at its annual convention Friday night even before he got to the podium.

Hillary Clinton, on the other hand,

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Hillary Loses West Virginia to Sanders, Ties With Trump in Key States

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, May 11, 2016:  

Hillary Clinton’s loss to Bernie Sanders in West Virginia’s primary on Tuesday did little to change her trajectory toward her party’s nomination in July in Philadelphia, but the fact she is still having to expend resources and energy in a battle she should have won long ago is taking its toll.

Exit polls following the primary illustrate the point:

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Trump: I’m Now Running Against “Crooked Hillary”

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, April 27, 2016:  

As a basketball player plants his pivot foot to the floor, allowing him to move away from danger and toward opportunity, Donald Trump has pivoted his campaign away from further dialogue with and attacks on Ted Cruz and John Kasich and toward his increasingly obvious opponent in the general election, Hillary Clinton.

Some are calling it a master stroke, basing his pivot on the assumption that

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Trump Takes New York, Closer to Shutting the Door on Cruz

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, April 20, 2016: 

speaking at CPAC in Washington D.C. on Februar...

As expected, both leading candidates in the Republican and Democratic primaries in New York on Tuesday extended their leads over their rivals. Hillary Clinton took 135 delegates to Sanders’ 104, all but cementing into place her nomination at the Democrat convention in July. Donald Trump extended his lead over his nearest rival, Ted Cruz, by running the board, taking 89 delegates to none for Cruz.

What was unexpected was the

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Opposition Gearing Up to Colo. Single-payer Healthcare Proposal

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, April 15, 2016: 

Mark Twain is alleged to have said that “a lie can travel halfway around the world before truth can get its boots on.” In Colorado Initiative 20 is already on the ballot in November and opposition to it is just getting its boots on.

If passed, it would be the 69th amendment to Colorado’s state constitution and would collect all the state’s healthcare programs — Medicaid, children’s healthcare, and all the other state and federal healthcare programs — under one roof. It would replace ObamaCare with what supporters are calling ColoradoCare. And it would double the state’s budget in its first year.

The language of the ballot initiative question may be enough to kill it:

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Sanders and Cruz Win Wisconsin, Extending Their Campaigns

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, April 6, 2016;  

Bernie Sanders (I-VT)

On the Democratic side, Senator Bernie Sanders took 47 of Wisconsin’s delegates on Tuesday, leaving front-runner Hillary Clinton with 36. This keeps Clinton in the lead with 1,748 delegates to Sander’s 1,058. Despite Sanders’ repeated insistence that many of the 469 “superdelegates” in Clinton’s column should come over to his side, precious few have so far, leaving him with just 31. Two thousand three hundred eighty-two delegates are needed to win on the first ballot in July. With Clinton ahead of Sanders in polls in the delegate-rich states of New York (247), Pennsylvania (189), and California (475), it’s all but over but the throwing of confetti and releasing of the balloons for Hillary in Philadelphia.

On the Republican side,

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Trump, Clinton Extend Leads; Cruz Takes Utah; Kasich Hopes to Be Spoiler

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, March 23, 2016: 

Tuesday’s primaries and caucuses extended Donald Trump’s lead over Ted Cruz for the GOP nomination, leaving John Kasich far behind. Hillary Clinton rolled over Bernie Sanders despite his taking the Utah and Idaho caucuses.

Capturing 58 delegates to Cruz’s 40 puts Trump ever closer to securing the nomination for president by the Republican Party, providing one considers only the math. Trump’s 739 delegates already in hand, along with another 323 he is expected to obtain from New York (estimated 80), Pennsylvania (estimated 71), and California (estimated 172) would put him at 1,062, 175 delegates short of the 1,237 needed to win on the first ballot in Cleveland in July.

To secure a win, Trump needs only to secure

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Trump Close Enough to Win GOP Nomination?

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, March 10, 2016:

Donald Trump & Melania enter the Oscar De LA R...

Donald Trump & Melania enter the Oscar De LA Renta Fashion Show, New York

Less than a week before March 15, the date when GOP primaries will be held in five states, an analysis by the Washington Times puts Donald Trump within shouting distance of the GOP nomination for president at its national convention in Cleveland in July.

By next Tuesday evening 367 delegates from those states will have been awarded to their winners, with Donald Trump projected to take most of them, as four states are “winner-take-all” states,

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Tuesday Will Seal the Deal for Trump

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Friday, March 11, 2016:  

Next Tuesday, 367 delegates are up for grabs. According to the brightest people in the room, The Donald is likely to take most, if not all, of them. On top of his present 458, that would bring him to over 800. All he needs is 1,237 to win on the first ballot. This would leave his closest challenger, Ted Cruz, in the dust, with perhaps 500 by the time the champagne is gone Tuesday night. And there are still 1,000 more delegates to be awarded.

Professional prognosticators and statistical wonks have been working overtime and Trump keeps coming out on top. Reuters picked Trump to win

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How Hillary Plans to Defeat Donald, and Vice Versa

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, March 2, 2016:  

Polls taken before and during Super Tuesday show Hillary Clinton maintaining a slight edge over front-running Republican Donald Trump among likely voters in November, but well within the margin of error. Real Clear Politics gives Clinton a “spread” of between 3 and 8 points, down considerably from when Trump first announced his candidacy last summer. Rasmussen Reports shows a slightly wider gap, 41 percent for Clinton versus 36 percent for Trump, but warns that one in every four voters quizzed on Monday and Tuesday still hadn’t made up their minds.

For Ed Rollins, Ronald Reagan’s campaign manager during his reelection efforts in 1984, it’s over: Trump will take the GOP nomination:

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Many of the articles on Light from the Right first appeared on either The New American or the McAlvany Intelligence Advisor.