I promise: this is the last time I’ll comment on the election. But Russ Robert’s analysis of what’s likely to happen on Tuesday is worth reviewing. He starts with a little necessary history and the purpose of polling:
Quick summary: dating back roughly to George Gallup’s introduction of modern political polling in the 1936 election, a pollster seeks to extrapolate the voting behavior of many millions of people (130 million people voted in the 2008 presidential election) from a poll of several hundred or a few thousand people.
But political polling is different:
Not all adults are registered voters, and not all registered voters show up to vote every time there’s an election.
And this is where “scientific” polling becomes a lot less