This article was first published at The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, April 15, 2015:
Canary jokes are back in fashion. Where does a 500-pound canary sit? Anywhere he wants. What does a 500-pound canary say? Here, Kitty, Kitty!
Nate Silver is a 500-pound canary. When he speaks, everyone listens. With pundits, prognosticators, and odds makers coming out of the woodwork to predict the outcome of the 2016 presidential election, Silver is calmly putting down their efforts, examining their claims and finding them wanting, and instead calling the election a 50/50 proposition.
Of course Hillary will win the Democrat Party’s nomination. There’s nobody else even close. But the election is another matter entirely, says Silver. He