Have nothing to do with the [evil] things that people do, things that belong to the darkness. Instead, bring them out to the light... [For] when all things are brought out into the light, then their true nature is clearly revealed...

-Ephesians 5:11-13

Tag Archives: Great Recession

More Proof: Raising the Minimum Wage Increases Unemployment

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, August 4, 2016: 

If more proof were needed that raising the minimum wage would increase unemployment among lesser-skilled workers, the Heritage Foundation’s latest study provides it.

For one thing, the push for a national minimum wage of $15 an hour would actually cost employers $18.61 an hour, thanks to payroll taxes, unemployment insurance and ObamaCare taxes. The proposed increase, if passed into law, would, according to Heritage, impact one-third of all American workers, and hurt the most those working in lower-cost states.

The math is simple, and deadly.

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United States No Longer First in Global Competitiveness

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, June 1, 2016:  

English: Cropped version of Thomas Jefferson, ...

Thomas Jefferson

According to a study just released by the International Institute for Management Development (IIMD), the “U.S. economy is no longer the most competitive and pro-business in the world.” It has held the top spot for the last three years but has, thanks to increasing government regulation and taxation, slipped to third place. Said Arturo Bris, IIMD’s director, “The U.S. still boasts the best economic performance in the world, but there are many other factors that we take into account when assessing competitiveness. The common pattern among all of the countries in the top 20 is their focus on business-friendly regulation, physical and intangible infrastructure and inclusive institutions.”

Based on its analysis of more than 300 criteria, the United States no longer excels based on

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Edict From Venezuela’s President Maduro: Grow Your Own Food

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, May 27, 2016:  

                            No Hay Comida is translated: There is no food

Word got out that there would be chicken for sale at the Central Madeirense supermarket in Guarenas, Venezuela, on Friday, so Kattya Alonzo got there at 4 a.m. The line of others already snaked around the block, waiting for the delivery trucks to arrive.

But when the trucks arrived at 6:30, the national guardsmen monitoring the crowd sensed the possibility of a riot and ordered the trucks to move on. The people waiting in line turned ugly and

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Brazil in Turmoil: President’s Impeachment Vote Imminent

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Tuesday, May 10, 2016:  

Português do Brasil: O presidente Lula partici...

Partners in crime

In a sudden unexpected move, early Tuesday morning Waldir Maranhão, the interim speaker of Brazil’s lower house (the Chamber of Deputies) reversed his previous decision from Monday to annul a Chamber of Deputies April vote that allowed impeachment proceedings to move forward. The upper house — the Federal Senate — was already moving toward a vote to impeach Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff when word came that the Chamber was going to have another vote on the matter.

With Brazilian politicians doing everything they can to stay out of jail, they are working hard to keep the public’s attention focused on Rousseff’s problems and away from their own. In March, Mihir Kapadia, the head of Sun Global Investments, a London investment firm that specializes in emerging-market opportunities, certainly sees one in Brazil:

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Nothing is Likely to Change in Brazil

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, April 20, 2016: 

One of Warren Buffett’s favorite expressions is “when the tide goes out, everyone will see who’s been swimming naked.”  In Brazil the tide went out at the start of the Great Recession and now the whole world can see who was swimming naked.

When President Lula was elected in 2002 the commodity boom was underway, and Brazil was enjoying the ride. Its major exports are soybeans, sugar, and iron ore, and under Lula Brazil’s GDP was running 10 percent a year. Lula implemented major expansions of the welfare state, including putting in place such generous pension plans that state workers could retire at age 54 for men and at age 52 for women at 90 percent of their final pay. The average Brazilian’s household income rose, and statists worldwide pointed to Brazil’s success story, naming it as one of the BRIC countries that would soon overtake the developed nations of the world, and doing it while expanding government spending.

But when Dilma Rousseff took over in 2011 the Great Recession was revealing the true nature of spending far beyond the ability of the economy to sustain it. In 2014 the government’s finances were in such dreadful shape that

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A Closer look at the Jobs Report

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, April 1, 2016:  

From a distance the jobs report issued on Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) looked pretty good: 215,000 new jobs were created by the economy in March while earnings, year-over-year, increased by 2.3 percent. The average hours worked remained stable, and the labor force participation rate rose off its recent record lows.

The numbers came from two sources: payroll numbers provided by businesses directly to the Labor Department, and household numbers provided by phone-call surveys.

In looking at the numbers, Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies LLC, a massive global investment firm headquartered in New York City, said that “we continue to generate a lot of jobs” without asking what kind. A closer look reveals

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Credit Rating Agencies Finally Reacting to China’s Economic Implosion

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Friday, April 12, 2016:  

English: World countries by Standard & Poor's ...

English: World countries by Standard & Poor’s Foreign Rating. Legend: Green – AAA Turquoise – AA Lighter blue – A Darker blue – BBB Purple – BB Red – B : Grey – not rated, (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

First it was Fitch. Late last year it downgraded China’s sovereign debt by two notches, from AAA to A, which, according to its own definition, signals debt that is “more vulnerable to adverse business or economic conditions than is the case for [the two] higher ratings.”

In early March, Moody’s Investors Service got on board, knocking China’s debt rating down by one notch, followed by Standard and Poor’s on Thursday, which kept China’s rating at AA but with a negative outlook.

Translation: something’s coming.

Said S&P:

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Standard & Poor’s Downgrades Chinese Sovereign Debt

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, March 31, 2016: 

Cover of "Coming Collapse of China"

The last of the three credit rating agencies to recognize China’s ongoing economic implosion, Standard & Poor’s, downgraded its rating on Chinese debt modestly on Thursday. The agency maintained its AA rating (one notch below its highest) but changed its outlook to “negative,” meaning another downgrade is possible within the next 12 months. It said:

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The Fed Joins Other Voices Predicting a U.S. Recession

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on March 22, 2016:  

Harry Dent, the author of The Great Crash Ahead, says that the current rebound in stocks is a head-fake of the first order, that the end of the seven-year bull market in stocks occurred last May. He said just look at a three-year chart of the SPX (Standard and Poor’s 500 Index) and see the rounded top formation.

Instead, talking heads all across the media are calling the recent rise following the precipitous decline that began the first day of trading of 2016 just a speed bump, a hiccup as the seven-year-long bull market in stocks is getting its second wind.

Markit Ltd., the monster financial services and advisory company located in London, issued its first warning in late February with its flash that its services purchasing managers’ index

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Markit Ltd. Says U.S. Economy Is Faltering

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Tuesday, March 22, 2016:  

Markit Ltd., the London-based global financial information behemoth, issued an early warning about signs of the coming recession in late February when it published its services purchasing managers’ index. It went negative for the first time in more than two years. At the time, Chris Williamson, Markit’s chief economist, said:

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The Best Evidence Yet of a US Recession This Year

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, March 14, 2016:  

The best evidence comes from the US Treasury with its daily report of tax receipts from wages and salaries. It’s pure, it’s timely, and it’s free of massaging and/or manipulation. And it’s ugly.

John Williams, the skilled and capable economic statistician whom the establishment economists love to hate, author of ShadowStats.com, has built a graph (see source below) showing

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Puerto Rico Defaults Today on Part of $1B Debt Payment

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, January 4, 2015:  

Both the Puerto Rican flag and the United Stat...

Both the Puerto Rican flag and the United States flag fly over Puerto Rico

Last June Puerto Rico’s Governor, Garcia Padilla, said his government was out of money and would have to default on some of the bonds issued by various government agencies. It owed some $54 million to the Public Finance Corporation and another $140 million to the government’s Development Bank. By moving some funds around on the government’s balance sheet, Padilla was able to make most of those payments.

Since then Padilla’s financial woes have snowballed.

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Congress Votes to Raid Fed’s Slush Fund to Pay for Highways

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, November 23, 2015:  

In its never-ending quest to spend money it doesn’t have, but not wanting to raise taxes, especially during the current election cycle, on Thursday, November 5 Congress passed a $325-billion, six-year transportation bill that is to be financed by selling off some of the country’s strategic petroleum reserves and raiding the Federal Reserve.

In its editorial complaint about the bill, the Washington Post said

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Recession Indicators: Pick one

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, November 18, 2015:

As a general rule a recession is two quarters of negative growth (aka decline) in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). GDP, in simplest terms, is a measure of industrial production, employment, real (inflation-adjusted) income, and wholesale and retail trade.

The trick is knowing when a recession is coming. Even trickier is knowing what to do about it beforehand.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said GDP

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More Signs the Economy Is Slowing

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Tuesday, November 17, 2015:  

The latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey issued by the New York Federal Reserve Bank on Monday confirms an increasingly ominous economic trend: The fourth consecutive monthly decline in its index is the longest since early 2009.

Its authors didn’t even try to sugarcoat it:

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John B. Taylor: Perfect Example of Hubris-Lathered Economist Who Thinks He Can Steer the Economy

This was article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, September 16, 2015:  

John B. Taylor, economics professor at Stanford University (where he got his PhD), thinks the massive, highly complex U.S. economy, generating nearly $20 trillion of goods and services every year, can be fine-tuned with rules and policies. Further, if those rules can be implemented clearly, the economy will do even better. He thinks of the economy as one gigantic organism with a mind and purpose of its own. That’s why he likes Fed Chair Janet Yellen:

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Interest-rate Increase Could Trigger Global Recession

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Tuesday, September 15, 2015:  

Series 1934 $5,000 Federal Reserve Note, Obverse

Series 1934 $5,000 Federal Reserve Note, Obverse

With every eye focused on the Board of Governors’ meeting of the Federal Reserve System on Thursday, expecting the earth-shaking announcement that it will, or won’t, raise interest rates for the first time since January of 2008, few are considering the global implications if it does.

Expectations in the very short run are modest. The debate centers on whether rates should be increased by a tenth of a percent, or a quarter of a percent. In the real world it isn’t likely to matter: New car loans will be adjusted upward by a couple of dollars a month and new home loans will increase by perhaps as much as $50 a month, probably less. This is likely to galvanize some fence-sitters into action, drawing future purchases into the present.

The real impact in the long run, however, is several-fold:

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Public Pension Plans Cut Rate of Return Targets; Still Not Enough

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, September 7, 2015:  

Twenty million pension plan beneficiaries have just been warned: You won’t be getting what you have been promised when you retire. Part of the reason is that pension managers have been far too optimistic in estimating what they are able to earn on your money. And part of the reason is that they continue to remain so.

In its analysis of 126 public pension plans, the National Association of State Retirement Administrators (NASRA) noted that more than two-thirds of them have reduced their estimates, however slightly, since 2008, while 39 of them are still stuck

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Social Security Disability: Reaching the End of the road?

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Friday, July 24, 2015:  

Social Security Poster: old man

Buried in the annual exclamations of urgency by the trustees of the Social Security system issued on Wednesday was this warning: action by Congress will “give the public adequate time to prepare.” In the short run, some 11 million on Social Security Disability will learn that their benefit checks will drop by $200 a month starting next fall, so they need to get used to that. In the long run everyone receiving anything from the celebrated Ponzi scheme will see their checks go to zero:

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“The most Bullish thing the Stock Market can do is go up.”

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, June 10, 2015: 

Charles Dow -an American journalist who co-fou...

Charles Dow -an American journalist who co-founded Dow Jones & Company with Edward Jones and Charles Bergstresser.

 

Right up until early April, that is. The Value Line Geometric Index, the unweighted index of approximately 1,700 stocks that fund manager Dana Lyons likes to watch, topped out at 522 and has declined by almost 10 percent since then.

By Monday, June 8 the Dow’s decline had wiped out all of its gains and is now flat for the year. The Dow Transportation Index fell 2 percent that day, its worst day since January 6, wiping out its 11 percent year-to-date gain. The Dow Utilities Index has suffered an even greater decline, erasing all of its 16 percent gain.

The Dow is one of the primary leading indicators used by financial advisors like Bruce Bittles, the chief investment strategist at RW Baird. Bittles manages $100 billion of other peoples’ money, and he’d better be right. Now, he’s getting nervous:

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Many of the articles on Light from the Right first appeared on either The New American or the McAlvany Intelligence Advisor.