Have nothing to do with the [evil] things that people do, things that belong to the darkness. Instead, bring them out to the light... [For] when all things are brought out into the light, then their true nature is clearly revealed...

-Ephesians 5:11-13

Tag Archives: Economy

Will Sunday’s Greek vote Signal the end of Monnet’s Dream?

This article was published at The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Friday, July 3, 2015:  

Greece’s Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said that Sunday’s vote is only about accepting or rejecting the troika’s terms to restart the flow of bailout funds that has been keeping the Greek economy from tanking. He said that a “no” vote “does not mean rupture with Europe but a return to Europe with values.”

Most assuredly Sunday’s vote is likely to, in hindsight, turn out to be much more than that. Historians might write that Sunday, July 5, 2015, ended Monnet’s dream.

Monnet was the architect, the primary driving force, behind the failing experiment in Europe called the European Union. He was head of the first genuine European executive body,

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OECD Issues Pessimistic Forecast for France

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, June 24, 2015: 

The OECD — the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development — put the best face possible on France’s declining economy in its just-released forecast. The report was full of optimism about the future but admitted that the present reality is discouraging. Note the use of words “projected” and “should” in its opening paragraph:

Economic growth is projected to gain momentum in 2015 and 2016. Lower energy prices, improving financial conditions, slowing fiscal consolidation, strengthening external demand and a pro-competitive reform agenda should underpin an increase in consumption and export volumes.

But the reality is far different, said the OECD: 

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CBO Issues Ambiguous Report on Impacts of Repealing ObamaCare

This article first appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, June 22, 2015: 

On Friday the Congressional Budget Office, the nonpartisan government agency that is tasked with predicting economic and budgetary impacts of various government programs, issued its analysis of what would happen if ObamaCare (the misnamed Affordable Care Act) were repealed. Its first questionable assumption was that it would be totally repealed effective January 1, 2016.

Its ambiguous, halting, and heavily discounted conclusions served as fodder for the statist media such as CNBC and NBC to warn of huge deficit increases if the socialized medical care program were repealed. NBC headlined a disaster ahead:

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“The most Bullish thing the Stock Market can do is go up.”

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, June 10, 2015: 

Charles Dow -an American journalist who co-fou...

Charles Dow -an American journalist who co-founded Dow Jones & Company with Edward Jones and Charles Bergstresser.

 

Right up until early April, that is. The Value Line Geometric Index, the unweighted index of approximately 1,700 stocks that fund manager Dana Lyons likes to watch, topped out at 522 and has declined by almost 10 percent since then.

By Monday, June 8 the Dow’s decline had wiped out all of its gains and is now flat for the year. The Dow Transportation Index fell 2 percent that day, its worst day since January 6, wiping out its 11 percent year-to-date gain. The Dow Utilities Index has suffered an even greater decline, erasing all of its 16 percent gain.

The Dow is one of the primary leading indicators used by financial advisors like Bruce Bittles, the chief investment strategist at RW Baird. Bittles manages $100 billion of other peoples’ money, and he’d better be right. Now, he’s getting nervous:

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Stock Market Wipes Out All Gains for the Year

This article first appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Tuesday, June 9, 2015:

On Monday, June 8, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) declined by enough to wipe out all gains investors thought they had made in stocks since January 1. It was confirmed by action in the Dow Jones Transportation Index (DJTA), which is even older than the Dow and reflects the price performance of the stocks of 20 transportation companies such as Avis, Delta Airlines, and FedEx. On Monday that index fell by two percent, its worst day since January 6, bringing that index to a loss of nearly 11 percent from its high earlier in the year.

The decline in the Dow was further confirmed by

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EPA: No “Widespread, Systemic” Fracking Impact on Drinking Water

This article first appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, June 5, 2015: 

Following the EPA’s release of the initial draft of its “Hydraulic Fracturing Drinking Water Assessment” on Thursday, expressions of joy exuded from fracking industry officials and pro-fracking politicians while anger erupted from environmentalists.

Responding to pressure from Congress to “study the relationship between hydraulic fracking and drinking water,” the EPA spent years and millions of taxpayer dollars to conclude, tentatively at least, that fracking doesn’t pollute or poison drinking water in areas close to fracking wells.

It was also tasked to uncover any “potential for hydraulic fracturing to change the quality or quantity of drinking water resources … [and to identify] factors affecting the frequency or severity of any potential changes.”

After exploring all possible mechanisms by which fracking might possibly negatively impact local drinking water supplies, the EPA reported:

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King v Burwell: Favorable Ruling May Help Economy, Hurt Democrats

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, June 1, 2015: 

If the Supreme Court rules in the case of King v. Burwell that words mean something, and that the words “exchanges established by the state” mean that only citizens in those states enjoy subsidies to help pay for their insurance under ObamaCare while those elsewhere do not, the impact of such a ruling would likely prove to be enormous.

The ruling due out shortly will either accept the concept that the words in the ObamaCare law mean what they say, or

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U.S. Economy Goes Negative in the First Quarter

This article first appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, May 29, 2015: 

The Commerce Department reported on Friday that the U.S. economy shrank at an annual rate of 0.7 percent, a sharp downward revision from its previous tepid estimate that it would grow by 0.2 percent.

It caught most mainstream economists off guard once again, with many predicting positive growth right up until Friday, and more remaining doggedly optimistic that growth will return. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal just 10 days ago were holding to a 3-percent growth rate in the economy for 2015, while analysts polled by the AP just prior to the release on Friday were still predicting growth of between 2 and 2.5 percent for the year.

Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, is waiting for evidence that growth will return in the second quarter:

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Mainstream Economists, the Herd Instinct, and GDP

This article first appeared at The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, May 20, 2015:

It’s no surprise, really. Most mainstream economists look at the world through Keynesian lenses, they attend the same conferences, read the same reports, are employed by companies in the same industry, hold degrees from the same universities, and are rewarded for having a view that doesn’t stray from the norm, even if that view is wrong. It’s a perfect reflection of the herd mentality: the impulse or tendency toward “clustering,” reflecting the need for conformity. It’s how economists make weathermen look good.

If their view turns out to be wrong, they adjust, slowly. If they are challenged or threatened,

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Atlanta Fed Drops GDP Growth Estimate to Under One Percent

This article first appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Tuesday, May 19, 2015: 

Whenever new data on the economy is reported, the Atlanta branch of the Federal Reserve System (the Atlanta “Fed”) releases its proprietary “nowcast” on how well the economy is doing. For some time now, that forecast has embarrassed mainstream economists who have subsequently been forced to drop their own forecasts as the economy continues to slow.

In February GDPNow projected that the U.S. economy would grow by 1.9 percent in 2015, far below the rosy estimates by mainstream economists. Two weeks ago GDPNow projected growth at 1.2 percent. On May 13, it dropped further,

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New York’s Fracking Ban Hurting Upstate New Yorkers

This article first appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, May 11, 2015: 

When New York Governor Andrew Cuomo was running for reelection in 2012 he said he was concerned about the poor economy hurting residents in upstate New York, particularly those living along the state’s southern border with Pennsylvania. Residents of Broome and Bradford counties in particular could peer across the border and see residents of Pennsylvania’s Susquehanna county living better, paying less in taxes, and enjoying the economic benefits of the fracking boom.

Cuomo briefly considered lifting the state’s de facto ban on fracking in those counties as a way to give their residents a chance to enjoy some of those benefits.

But only briefly.

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China Export Shipping Declines by Two-thirds

This article first appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, May 7, 2015: 

Two weeks ago the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), which tracks shipping rates from Shanghai to the world, fell off a cliff: down a breath-taking 67 percent from a year ago. Wolf Richter thought it was a statistical fluke.

It was no fluke. In the next two weeks the SCFI for Northern Europe fell another 14 percent, an all-time low. Wrote Richter: “Something big is going on in the China-Europe trade.”

The collapse is being echoed by other indexes reflecting the breathtaking decline in China’s exports. For example

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First-quarter GDP Report Is Awful

This article first appeared online at TheNewAmereican.com on Wednesday, April 29, 2015: 

Logo of the United States Bureau of Economic A...

The report released Wednesday morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) was stark: The economy stalled in the first quarter in every sector, with overall growth barely positive, and embarrassing once again economists who predicted substantially better results. According to the BEA the economy in the first quarter grew at an annual rate of just 0.2 percent, compared to estimates of between 1.0 and 2.0 percent by the “experts.”

Personal spending dropped by nearly two thirds from the fourth quarter of 2014; durable goods purchases fell by more than 80 percent; and non-durable goods purchases almost disappeared compared to the last quarter, falling by 0.3 percent compared to an increase of more than four percent. The service industry limped along at two-thirds of last quarter’s pace.

Investment in business capital equipment went negative, as did

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DOE Ignores Green Complaints, Issues LNG Export Permits

This article was first published at The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, April 29, 2015: 

Prior to last September there was only one port fitted out to export liquefied natural gas to customers abroad: the ConocoPhillips’ Kenai LNG Terminal near Anchorage, Alaska. But when environmentalists got word that Obama’s Department of Energy was about to issue permits allowing two more ports to be built on the Gulf Coast, they rolled out their big guns in protest. Said Kate DeAngelis, an anti-energy, anti-fracking, climate change activist and campaigner for Friends of the Earth:

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Energy Department Approves Six LNG Export Plants; More Coming

This article first appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Tuesday, April 28, 2015:

On April 14, the Department of Energy’s Federal Energy Regulatory Commission published a remarkable summary of its recent approvals for private energy companies to build LNG (liquid natural gas) export plants along the East and Gulf Coasts.

What’s remarkable is that for decades the DOE has bought the argument that exporting LNG to customers around the world might jeopardize its supply here in the United States. It also bought the argument that allowing private producers to ship their product overseas would only encourage more fracking here with its claimed attendant but unproven dangers to the environment.

That the DOE is giving approval to LNG export facilities is proof that reality has finally replaced ideology at the agency, at least for the moment. As expected,

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Hillary Tells the Truth

This article was first published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, April 22, 2015: 

On certain topics, Hillary Clinton has been forthright. She is a proud collectivist:

We must stop thinking of the individual and start thinking about what is best for society.

And this:

Many of you are well enough off that the tax cuts may have helped you.

We’re saying that for America to get back on track, we’re probably going to cut that short and not give it to you.

We’re going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good.

When it comes to the economy, however, Clinton has either joined the chorus of cheerleaders about its remarkable recovery, or has remained silent in the face of evidence that it hasn’t. On Monday, however,

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Hillary Finally Comes Clean: The Economy Is “Stalled”

This article first appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Tuesday, April 21, 2015:

During Hillary Clinton’s road trip to New Hampshire on Monday, something remarkable occurred: She told the truth about the economy, telling her supporters that the economy has “stalled out” and, adding, “It’s not enough to tread water.”

A month ago while she was busy not running for president, Clinton never uttered a word about the weakening economy, giving mute evidence that she was unwilling to risk telling the truth and offending both the president and her Democrat supporters. This despite evidence that Americans have put economic worries at or near the top of their concerns for months on end. This despite the fact that the nation’s GDP fell off a cliff in January and February. This despite the fact that job growth since the start of the Great Recession has been half what it was during the Reagan recovery in the 1980s. This despite evidence that new business startups have continued their decline since 2009, and evidence that business investment in new enterprises has dropped sharply at the same time.

But evidence just released has so overwhelmed the Democrat stance that everything is ducky that it apparently has forced Clinton to admit what is obvious to the voters whose support she is seeking:

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China’s Economic Bubble Ready to Burst?

This article first appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, March 13, 2015: 

 

The latest numbers out of China no longer mask its economic decline. Chinese industrial production “slowed at its sharpest rate in the first two months of the year since the global financial crisis” shouted the Financial Times on Wednesday.

Wang Tao, UBS’ chief economist on the Chinese economy, was dour: “Today’s disappointing data release highlights just how quickly domestic demand is deteriorating as the ongoing [real estate] downturn continues to spread its negative impact through the economy.”

In China that impact is huge,

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Latest Jobs Report Deceptive; Jobs Exported Overseas

This article first appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Saturday, March 7, 2015:

English: A North American Free Trade Agreement...

North American Free Trade Agreement logo

The employment report from the Labor Department on Friday was hailed as more evidence that the worst from the Great Recession is now in the rear view mirror, and receding. The unemployment rate in February dropped to 5.5 percent, lower than economists were predicting, while job growth added nearly 300,000 jobs, pushing the streak of gains of 200,000-plus new jobs per month out to a full year, the longest such streak since 1995.

The news caused stocks to lose more than one percent of their value, as Wall Street expected the robust numbers to hasten the day when the Fed would increase interest rates, potentially slowing the sluggish economy even further. Investors needn’t worry: Friday’s report was a head-fake.

If the recovery were real,

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Internet Freedom to Disappear on Thursday

This article first appeared at The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Thursday, February 26, 2015:

Ronald Reagan wearing cowboy hat at Rancho del...

Ronald Reagan was right:

Government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: if it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.

Tom Wheeler, the current FCC Chairman, doesn’t think that’s funny. He thinks they are his marching orders. Encouraged by his boss, Wheeler is reaching for the biggest hammer in his toolbox to bludgeon the internet into submission and turn it into a utility. On Thursday Wheeler will

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Many of the articles on Light from the Right first appeared on either The New American or the McAlvany Intelligence Advisor.