Have nothing to do with the [evil] things that people do, things that belong to the darkness. Instead, bring them out to the light... [For] when all things are brought out into the light, then their true nature is clearly revealed...

-Ephesians 5:11-13

Tag Archives: confidence

Stock Market’s Complacency Index Highest in 24 Years

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, May 8, 2017:  

Wall Street’s “complacency index” — a measure of confidence that stock prices will continue to rise — hit the highest level since 1993 on Monday. Alternatively called the VIX (for volatility index), it is often referred to as Wall Street’s “investor fear gauge.”

Translation: Investors presently appear to have no fear. The index compares investors betting, through their purchases of options, that the market will go up, to those betting to the contrary. When investor fear is high, the VIX will move above 30 or even higher. When fear declines, the VIX trades below 20. During the day on Monday the VIX touched 9.72, a level not seen in 24 years.

So complacent have investors become that the VIX has dropped by 45 percent just since April 13. By comparison,

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Growing Pension Crisis Looms Over Wall Street

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, March 27, 2017:

Logo of the United States Pension Benefit Guar...

Logo of the United States Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation

The looming state and municipal pension plan crisis, estimated by Moody’s at $1.75 trillion just a few months ago, has now been adjusted upward to  $1.9 trillion. But that number, according to Bloomberg’s Danielle DiMartino Booth, greatly underestimates the level of underfunding. It’s more like $6 trillion “if the prevailing yields on Treasuries were used.”

Instead, most state and local pension plans use a much higher, more generous, and more deceptive assumed rate of return of between six and seven percent, with some still clinging to a “castles in the sky” eight percent. Those assumptions greatly reduce the pressure on plan sponsors to make proper contributions to fund those plans.

And, according to the investment firm GMO (Grantham, Mayo & van Otterloo),

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February Jobs Numbers Explode, Blowing Past Economists’ Expectations

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, March 8, 2017: 

.jobs -- Cut To The Chase

The ADP/Moody’s jobs report released on Wednesday showed job growth 50-percent ahead of Wall Street’s expectations: 298,000 jobs were created in February versus expectations of less than 200,000 by economists polled by the Wall Street Journal. The job growth was all across the spectrum, with construction and manufacturing sectors adding 106,000 new jobs.

The report, sponsored by ADP, a human resources management company with more than 400,000 business clients, and aided by Moody’s Analytics, was based on performance reported during the month to both entities. Mark Zandi, Moody’s chief economist, commented on the remarkable February numbers:

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Here’s What Those 500 Evangelical Pastors Actually Said

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, February 15, 2017:

The full-page ad that appeared last Wednesday in the Washington Post was paid for by World Relief, the humanitarian arm of the National Association of Evangelicals, and offered prayers and support by some 500 Christian leaders for President Donald Trump and Vice-President Mike Pence as they worked to craft an immigration policy:

We live in a dangerous world and affirm the crucial role of government in protecting us from harm and in setting the terms on refugee admissions….

 

As Christians, we are committed to praying for our elected officials. Our prayer is that God would grant [you and the Vice President] and all our leaders divine wisdom as they direct the course of our nation.

This is what Carol Kuruvilla, the Huffington Post’s Associate Religion Editor, thought it said:

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LOL Illinois: Corporate Group Works to Keep State From Becoming a Laughingstock

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, December 28, 2016:  

English: 1987 Illinois license plate

The name of the group LOL Illinois can taken two ways: Land of Lincoln, or Laughing Out Loud. As Scott Santi, chairman of Illinois Tool Works, which employs 48,000 workers around the world, noted:

There’s a crisis of confidence in terms of a plan to address some pretty significant structural problems in the state. It’s challenging for Illinois to be competitive given the uncertainty around the fiscal crisis.

“Crisis of confidence”? “Challenging”? “Uncertainty”? Illinois was headed into oblivion until Bruce Rauner, the first Republican governor in 12 years, faced reality.

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EIA’s Energy Forecast for 2017 Laced With “Uncertainty”

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Wednesday, December 14, 2016:  

English: Logo of the U.S. Energy Information A...

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) was hesitant to forecast where oil and gasoline prices might be in 2017. It said in its Short Term Energy Outlook published last week: “The values of futures and options contracts indicate significant uncertainty in the price outlook.”

Indeed they do. With a 95-percent confidence level, the EIA says the price of oil next year could vary anywhere between

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Boomers Are Retiring, Draining Pension Plans

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, December 12, 2016:

Roosevelt Signs The : President Roosevelt sign...

President Roosevelt signs Social Security Act, at approximately 3:30 pm EST on 14 August 1935.

In a moment of surprising candor, Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former advisor to the Federal Reserve, said in a Real Vision TV interview on Saturday that “the Baby Boomers are no longer an actuarial theory. They’re a reality. The checks [from their retirement plans] are being written.”

For years commentators have repeatedly asserted that “when” the Baby Boomers (that generation born between 1946 and 1964) start to retire, they will start using up funds set aside in pension plans, putting those plans into crisis. According to Booth, that day has arrived.

She pointed to the crisis in Dallas that threatens to put the city into bankruptcy, and the report from Calpers (the California Public Employees Retirement System),

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Fewer Americans Trust Mainstream Media

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, December 2, 2016:  

English: The New York Times building in New Yo...

When Michael Goodwin, a 10-year veteran writer for the New York Times, saw the extent of the bias displayed by the Times in its coverage of the recent presidential election, and by the mainstream media in general, he called it “shameful”:

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Three Election Models Pick Trump to Win on Tuesday

English: Donald Trump at a press conference an...

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, November 7, 2016:  

Poll-watching junkies are having a field day. There is one poll or another publishing its results on an almost hourly basis. As this is being written on noon Sunday, for instance, Investors Business Daily (IBD), which touts its survey as “the most accurate poll in recent presidential elections,” has Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton by one point. The USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times’ “Daybreak” poll shows Trump ahead of Clinton by five points.

Nate Silver, in his FiveThirtyEight 2016 Election Forecast, has Clinton’s chance of winning at 64.7 percent versus Trump’s 35.3 percent. Silver predicts Clinton will win 48.4 percent of the popular vote (versus Trump’s 45.5 percent, which will give her 291 Electoral College votes to Trump’s 246.

In its running summary of other polls, Real Clear Politics shows Clinton up by 1.8 percent over Trump in the popular vote, while in the Electoral College it’s Clinton with 216 and Trump with 164, leaving 158 votes as “toss ups.”

There are at least two other prognosticators who don’t rely on polls at all, and they are predicting Trump will win on Tuesday. The first was explained by Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge back in January when he said that the stock market would predict November’s winner:

This relationship occurs because the stock market reflects the economic outlook in the weeks leading up to the election. A rising stock market indicates an improving economy, which means rising confidence and increases the chances of the incumbent party’s re-election.

 

Therefore, your time might be better spent from August through October watching the stock market rather than the debates if you want to know who will be President for the next four years.

Right on cue the stock market has declined nine days in a row (through last Friday), the first time that has happened since 1980. But more importantly is how it has behaved since Monday, August 1. The S&P 500 Index has declined by 4.5 percent which, according to Durden, translates into an 86 percent chance of Trump’s winning on Tuesday.

And then there’s the professor from Stony Brook University, Helmut Norpoth, and his “Primary Model”. Writes Norpoth on his website:

Winning early primaries is a major key for electoral victory in November. Trump won the Republican primaries in both New Hampshire and South Carolina, while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders split the Democratic primaries in those states….

 

For the record the Primary Model … has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in all five presidential elections since it was introduced in 1996….

 

For elections from 1912 to 2012 the Primary Model [has retroactively picked] the winner … every time except in 1960.

 

Accordingly, Norpoth gives Trump an 87 percent chance of winning Tuesday’s election.

There’s also his “pendulum” model:

What favors the GOP in 2016 as well … is the cycle of presidential elections. After two terms of Democrat Barack Obama in the White House the electoral pendulum is poised to swing to the GOP this year….

 

Donald Trump is predicted to defeat Hillary Clinton by 52.5 percent to 47.5 percent.

In the “for what it’s worth” category, as this is being written, futures for Monday’s open are also turning negative. If the market closes down again on Monday, the 10th day in a row, it will only add validity to both Durden’s and Norpoth’s prediction: Trump will win on Tuesday.

Also, Professor Norpoth has such confidence in his models that he is using his own money to bet on Trump to win.

The S&P 500 is Picking Trump to Win

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, November 7, 2016:

Back in January, Tyler Durden (a pseudonym), writing at ZeroHedge, said one would be far better off watching the markets than the debates if one wanted to know who the next president would be:

This relationship occurs because the stock market reflects the economic outlook in the weeks leading up to the election. A rising stock market indicates an improving economy, which means rising confidence and increases the chances of the incumbent party’s re-election.

 

Therefore, your time might be better spent from August through October watching the stock market rather than the debates if you want to know who will be President for the next four years.

Right on cue, the stock market has declined nine days in a row (through last Friday), the first time that has happened since 1980. But more importantly

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Mainstream Media’s Increasingly Blatant Liberal Bias May Backfire in Elections

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, September 19, 2016:  

FOX Business Network's Mix/Minus and IFB board

FOX Business Network’s Mix/Minus and IFB board

Just three days after Pew Research reported that nearly two-thirds of Americans think the news stories they read, hear, and watch are biased, along came Gallup with a similar conclusion.

Pew found that 63 percent of its respondents doubted the veracity and neutrality of the stories they get from the mainstream media, a full 10-percent decline just since 2007. Pew also reported that the mainstream media finds itself in increasing financial difficulty owing not only to increasing distrust by its readers but competition from Internet-based sources.

For instance, newspaper advertising dropped by

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The Mainstream Media Has Blown Its Cover

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, September 19, 2016:  

FOX Business Network's control room screen

FOX Business Network’s control room screen

In its rush (some say panic) to denigrate and neutralize Donald Trump’s appeal in the presidential race, the liberal mainstream media’s bias has become so blatant that it may actually be turning off those it is trying to influence.

On September 11, Pew Research reported that

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Have Oil Prices Hit Bottom?

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, April 21, 2016:  

The 40 percent increase in the price of crude oil just since the end of January prompts two questions: Have investors seen the bottom in oil prices, and have drivers seen the lows in gas prices?

Todd Garner, the managing partner at Protec Energy Partners hedge fund, thinks so:

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Have Oil Prices Hit Bottom?

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, April 21, 2016:

The 40 percent increase in the price of crude oil just since the end of January prompts two questions: Have investors seen the bottom in oil prices, and have drivers seen the lows in gas prices?

Todd Garner, the managing partner at Protec Energy Partners hedge fund, thinks so:

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The Fed Joins Other Voices Predicting a U.S. Recession

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on March 22, 2016:  

Harry Dent, the author of The Great Crash Ahead, says that the current rebound in stocks is a head-fake of the first order, that the end of the seven-year bull market in stocks occurred last May. He said just look at a three-year chart of the SPX (Standard and Poor’s 500 Index) and see the rounded top formation.

Instead, talking heads all across the media are calling the recent rise following the precipitous decline that began the first day of trading of 2016 just a speed bump, a hiccup as the seven-year-long bull market in stocks is getting its second wind.

Markit Ltd., the monster financial services and advisory company located in London, issued its first warning in late February with its flash that its services purchasing managers’ index

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Investigators Circling Brazil’s President; “Sudden” Regime Change Likely

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, March 7, 2016:  

On March 4, more than 200 police officers and 30 tax auditors raided the homes and offices of numerous Brazilian officials involved in the Petrobras money-laundering scandal in an investigation dubbed “Operation Car Wash.” The biggest fish caught in their net was none other than Brazil’s former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (shown above), known as “Lula.” If he is charged and convicted, it will represent a serious breach in the wall of innocence surrounding Brazil’s current President Dilma Rousseff, who has declared from the beginning that she knew nothing about the pay-to-play scheme.

Brian Winter, vice president of Americas Society/Council for the Americas, said this of Lula’s arrest:

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Is the U.S. Heading Into Another Recession?

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, February 15, 2016:  

Buried in Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen’s comments to senators last Thursday were three revealing statements.

First: “There is always some chance of recession in any year. But the evidence [at the moment] suggests that expansions don’t die of old age.” Translation: Recessions result from inherent weaknesses in the system.

Second, she admitted that

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Recession Indicators: Pick one

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, November 18, 2015:

As a general rule a recession is two quarters of negative growth (aka decline) in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). GDP, in simplest terms, is a measure of industrial production, employment, real (inflation-adjusted) income, and wholesale and retail trade.

The trick is knowing when a recession is coming. Even trickier is knowing what to do about it beforehand.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said GDP

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More Signs the Economy Is Slowing

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Tuesday, November 17, 2015:  

The latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey issued by the New York Federal Reserve Bank on Monday confirms an increasingly ominous economic trend: The fourth consecutive monthly decline in its index is the longest since early 2009.

Its authors didn’t even try to sugarcoat it:

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Shell Gets Final Approval to Drill in the Arctic Ocean

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Tuesday, August 18, 2015: 

Shell Oil Company

On Monday the U.S. Department of the Interior issued a final approval to allow Royal Dutch Shell to start drilling an exploratory oil well in the Chukchi Sea, northwest of Alaska. Though the Department of the Interior is headed up by Sally Jewell, who was handpicked by the Obama administration for her background not only as the former CEO of REI, a Seattle-based outdoor equipment retailer, but as a die-hard Democrat contributor, the announcement nevertheless enraged environmentalists who remember both the Valdez oil spill and the 2010 Deepwater Horizon blowout.

The last time Shell drilled in the Arctic Ocean was 1991, and environmentalists have been keeping the pressure on succeeding administrations to make it the only time. In 2008, however,

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Many of the articles on Light from the Right first appeared on either The New American or the McAlvany Intelligence Advisor.