Have nothing to do with the [evil] things that people do, things that belong to the darkness. Instead, bring them out to the light... [For] when all things are brought out into the light, then their true nature is clearly revealed...

-Ephesians 5:11-13

Tag Archives: CBO

Federal Deficit at Eight-year Low; Don’t Celebrate Yet

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, October 16, 2015:  

On Thursday the Treasury Department announced that the federal deficit for the 2015 fiscal year, which ended September 30, fell to an eight-year low — $439 billion — thanks to tax revenues that grew at a rate faster than government spending. Revenues, according to the department, grew by eight percent over last year while government spending grew by five percent.

Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew celebrated:

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Pelosi Reacts to CBO Report Before Reading it

This article was published by the McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, June 22, 2015: 

Former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) was one of the first to react to the report just released by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Friday. She was so quick to comment that there was suspicion she had had no chance to read it. When the details behind the report came out, that suspicion was confirmed.

The House member most responsible for garnering the 219 votes needed in the House in March 2010 to pass ObamaCare – the Affordable Care Act, or ACA – is remembered for her comment made during a 20-minute speech just prior to passage:

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CBO Issues Ambiguous Report on Impacts of Repealing ObamaCare

This article first appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, June 22, 2015: 

On Friday the Congressional Budget Office, the nonpartisan government agency that is tasked with predicting economic and budgetary impacts of various government programs, issued its analysis of what would happen if ObamaCare (the misnamed Affordable Care Act) were repealed. Its first questionable assumption was that it would be totally repealed effective January 1, 2016.

Its ambiguous, halting, and heavily discounted conclusions served as fodder for the statist media such as CNBC and NBC to warn of huge deficit increases if the socialized medical care program were repealed. NBC headlined a disaster ahead:

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Latest CBO Report shows Deficits Approaching $1 Trillion

This article first appeared at The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, February 4, 2015: 


When the Congressional Budget Office issued its Budget and Economic Outlook 2015 to 2025 in January, few could be bothered to do a serious review of it as it seemed to contradict the present meme of the Goldilocks economy: job growth accelerating, interest rates low, consumer confidence improving, deficits shrinking, and so forth. Even those taking the time to look at it, scoffed at its conclusions. Said the CBO:

The federal budget deficit, which has fallen sharply during the past few years, is projected to hold steady relative to the size of the economy through 2018.

Beyond that point, however, the gap between spending and revenues is expected to grow, further increasing federal debt … which is already historically high.

The CBO explained why:

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CBO’s Funny Math

This article first appeared at The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, October 22, 2014:

National debt clock

National debt clock

The Congressional Budget Office’s August update to the federal budget and outlook for the next 10 years released last week was so filled with questionable assumptions as to make their conclusions completely unrealistic. As expected, the mainstream media focused only on the parts of the report that fed and supported their worldview. For instance, the CBO said that revenues were expected to increase by about 8% over last year to a world record $3 trillion, thanks to increases in individual income taxes, payroll taxes, and corporate income taxes.

This was understood by the White House and establishment economists to

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National Debt to be $27 Trillion in 10 Years, Says the CBO

This article was first published at TheNewAmerican.com on Thursday, October 16, 2014: 


There was something for everyone in the release last week by the Congressional Budget Office of its August update and outlook. The federal government’s revenues are expected to top $3 trillion this year for the first time in history, thanks to individual income taxes rising by six percent, payroll taxes by eight percent, and corporate income taxes by 15 percent. Those infatuated with big government are celebrating the event as a reflection of an improving economy resuscitated by government spending and stimulus programs. Small government advocates, on the other hand,

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Obama’s New Budget Raises Taxes and Increases the National Debt


(Photo credit: SS&SS)

This article first appeared at the McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, April 29, 2014:

The Congressional Budget Office, in introducing its latest analysis of President Obama’s proposed budget, could just as easily have quoted Robert Welch, the founder of the John Birch Society, who said back in 1974 that the future would bring:

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CBO report: the rich pay most of the taxes while the poor get checks

Jane Wells, a business news reporter for CNBC, after reviewing the latest report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on who pays income taxes in America, claimed that the rich pay them all. The CBO, wrote Wells, showed that the top 20 percent pay nearly 93 percent of all income taxes, while the top 40 percent

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Deficit down, national debt up, more taxes needed say two “nonpartisan” groups

Two government reports issued in the last few days show that despite higher tax revenues, thanks to the tax increases signed into law by the president earlier this year, deficits are still sky-high and the national debt continues its inexorable climb into the stratosphere.

Although the deficit for the first eleven months of the 2013 fiscal year was down slightly compared to last year at this time, real progress towards a balanced budget remains elusive. Through August the federal government spent

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Another Obamacare Delay Admitted by the White House

On Monday the New York Times quoted an unnamed White House official that another piece of the labyrinthine healthcare law is going to have to be delayed until 2015, which will wind up costing vast numbers of citizens with severe illnesses potentially thousands, perhaps even hundreds of thousands, of dollars. This flies in the face of the promise that President Obama made back in September 2009 that Obamacare

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CBO Cost Estimates on Senate Immigration Bill Celebrated, Challenged

When the Congressional Budget Office’s cost estimate of S. 744 – the Gang of Eight’s controversial immigration bill – was published on Tuesday, there was celebrating on both sides of the issue. Said Senator Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), one of that gang and the original sponsor of the bill:

Simply put, this report is a huge

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S&P Issues an Upgrade of US sovereign debt along with a warning

In the announcement by credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s on Monday that affirmed its AA+ rating of United States sovereign debt while revising upward its outlook from “negative” to “stable,” the agency explained that in the short run there has been some perceptible improvement in the country’s fiscal situation but in the long run

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Social Security to Run Out of Money Much Sooner Than Estimated

The latest report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) about the inevitable insolvency of Social Security is discouraging enough without checking the CBO’s assumptions. A closer look at the report and those assumptions reveals a

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The Gloomy Report from the CBO is Too Optimistic

On its face the latest report from the Congressional Budget Office is gloomy enough, but careful sifting through it reveals

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Fiscal Cliff Funny Numbers: Taxpayers Pay More Yet Deficits Rise

Uncle Sam is Broke

Uncle Sam is Broke (Photo credit: Infrogmation)

Now that the House of Representatives has virtually rubber-stamped the Senate bill to avoid going over the fiscal cliff – the so-called American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (ATRA) – which President Obama is expected to sign shortly, commentators have been working feverishly to determine exactly what is in the 157-page bill that no one had time to read before being rushed to completion at the very last minute.

The analysis by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) measured the impact of ATRA against its baseline assumption that the congress would do nothing and let all the pieces and parts of the fiscal cliff occur automatically. In that baseline, annual government deficits would have been cut in half, from $1.1 trillion to about $640 trillion. But under the new law, the national debt will increase by

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Where Are the Spending Cuts?

Cutting your Spending

Cutting your Spending (Photo credit: Tax Credits)

The fiscal cliff “deal” about to be signed into law by President Obama is all about tax increases. This is what The One has wanted since he got into office. He wanted to overload the system so much that taxpayers would be forced to pay more. It’s more of the “leveling” required to push the US down relative to other deadbeat nations who also can’t pay their bills. The easier to be “absorbed” into the new world order run by non-elected elites. But I digress…

According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the “deal” consists of $15 billion in spending cuts (over the next ten years, mind you) compared to $620 billion in new taxes – a ratio of 41:1. What a deal!

“We’ll address spending cuts later” is now the cry from sycophants like Grover Norquist. “We got a deal we can live with,” they say. “Now let’s get down to business.”

Sorry. Business is already done. That window of opportunity to hold the government accountable is closed. Obama got what he wanted. Boehner caved in. End of discussion.

I’m biased (!). But I think the fiscal cliff turned out to be a speed bump on the road to more

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CBO: Balancing the Budget Will Be “Formidable”

We need to get this to the Fiscal Cliff! What ...

(Photo credit: DonkeyHotey)

Within days of issuing its report on the impact the fiscal cliff would have on the economy, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released another report full of suggestions on how to close the deficit. They might not have bothered. The gap is too big and their suggestions are too small.

The CBO tried to put things into perspective:

Federal debt held by the public currently exceeds 70 percent of the nation’s annual output (gross domestic product, or GDP), a percentage not seen since 1950. Under the current-law assumptions embodied in CBO’s baseline projections, the budget deficit would shrink markedly—from nearly $1.1 trillion in fiscal year 2012 to about $200 billion in 2022…

Simply put, if nothing changes, come the first of the year the deficit will begin to come down, but not by very much, and certainly not enough to bring the budget into balance by 2022. But, warns the CBO:

Those projections depend heavily on the significant increases in taxes and decreases in spending that are scheduled to take effect at the beginning of January.

Aside from the gridlock now being witnessed in Washington as the conflicting interests of the taxpayers versus the beneficiaries of the welfare state are working themselves out, there is simple

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Solving the Fiscal Cliff Crisis: Extend and Pretend

English: Peter Schiff speaking

Peter Schiff speaking (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Peter Schiff, hard-money advocate and former candidate for the Senate from Connecticut, wrote in Townhall.com that he expects the congress to punt on the fiscal cliff.

I am doing a lengthy print article for The New American magazine on what congress ought to do to save the government from bankruptcy. I also wrote that the congress can’t kick the can down the road any farther – we’ve run out of road.

Schiff thinks they can. First he explains what the fiscal cliff is all about:

Stripped of its rhetorically charged language the fiscal cliff is simply a legal trigger that will trim the deficit in 2013 by automatically implementing spending cuts and tax increases. In other words, the government will spend less, and more of what it does spend will be paid for with taxes rather than debt…

The fiscal cliff means that the federal budget deficit will be immediately cut in half, shrinking to approximately $641 billion in 2013 from the approximately $1.1 trillion in 2012.

That of course assumes that congress does nothing. But congress will do something, even if it’s

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CBO All But Guarantees Fiscal Cliff Gridlock

(fear) the Fiscal Cliff...

(fear) the Fiscal Cliff… (Photo credit: MyEyeSees)

In its latest 14-page report on the impact the “fiscal cliff” would have on the economy in 2013 and beyond, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) provided enough ammunition to both sides of the debate to guarantee a standoff in Washington. It would have simplified matters greatly if Doug Elmendorf, the CBO’s director, had simply said: “Pay me now or pay me later. You decide.”

The “fiscal cliff” is a convergence of tax increases and spending cuts scheduled to become effective on January 1st 2013 that are complex enough to, in the words of Tevye in the film Fiddler on the Roof, “cross a Rabbi’s eyes.”

There are the Bush tax cuts from 2001 and 2003 which are due to expire, representing a tax increase that would affect most taxpayers, hitting higher earners especially hard. There are the mandatory spending cuts to military and domestic programs that resulted from the failure of Congress in August 2011 to make hard decisions about the deficit and national debt.

There is the expiration of the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) “patch” which would effectively raise taxes on some 27 million people. There is the scheduled ending of the payroll tax “holiday” which temporarily reduced employees’ contributions to Social Security from 6.2% to 4.2%. There is the Medicare “Doc Fix” legislation which, when it expires, would cut Medicare providers’ fees by 27 percent. And there’s the Medicare surtax of 3.8 percent that would apply to high income earners along with the expiration of the Bush tax cuts.

Put altogether, if the congress does nothing, the impact on the economy would mean a significant decrease in

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Marching Towards the Fiscal Cliff

John Boehner - Caricature

John Boehner (Photo credit: DonkeyHotey)

This article from the Washington Times perfectly illustrates how Washington is going to deal with the “fiscal cliff,” which means that nothing much will happen to bend the trajectory away from inevitable bankruptcy.

First, the inevitable warnings from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) which focuses only on the immediate:

Even if all of the fiscal tightening was eliminated, the economy would remain below its potential and the unemployment rate would remain higher than usual for some time.

If the fiscal tightening was removed, and the policies that are currently in effect were kept in place indefinitely, a continued surge in federal debt during the rest of this decade and beyond would raise the risk of a fiscal crisis … and would eventually reduce the nation’s output and income below what would [otherwise] occur.

This certainly isn’t the galvanizing language that would motivate congress to do something significant about the real debt: the $222 trillion debt the government currently owes.

House Speaker Boehner is holding firm against tax increases, for the moment. While Obama is giving indications that he might soften a little about

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Many of the articles on Light from the Right first appeared on either The New American or the McAlvany Intelligence Advisor.

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