Have nothing to do with the [evil] things that people do, things that belong to the darkness. Instead, bring them out to the light... [For] when all things are brought out into the light, then their true nature is clearly revealed...

-Ephesians 5:11-13

Tag Archives: BLS

Social Security to Announce Tiny Increase in Benefits for Next Year

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Tuesday, October 11, 2016:  

Seal of the United States Social Security Admi...

Next Tuesday the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will announce Social Security’s COLA (Cost of Living Adjustment) for 2017. It is widely anticipated to be between nothing and $3 a month for the average beneficiary.

But Medicare premiums (retirees are often expected to pay a monthly fee for coverage) for seniors receiving Social Security retirement benefits are expected to jump nearly $30 a month. That premium increase would reduce the average retirement benefit by about $25 a month, except that Congress had inserted a “hold harmless” provision into Medicare law. Instead, the premium increase will be funded by Medicare, thereby hastening the day when that part of Social Security runs out of money.

The statistics reflective of the current gradual liquidation of Social Security’s so-called Trust Fund are familiar to most recipients:

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Behind the Jobs Report: Weakness in Manufacturing, Transportation

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, October 7, 2016:  

The headline number from Friday’s jobs report was a tepid 156,000 new jobs created in September. Not only did this number fall short of economists’ expectations of 170,000, it was 19-percent below the average job growth of the last three months and 22 percent below the level of monthly job growth of 229,000 in 2015.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the agency reporting from inside the Labor Department, was none too sanguine itself in reporting the results:

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A Closer look at the Jobs Report

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Friday, April 1, 2016:  

From a distance the jobs report issued on Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) looked pretty good: 215,000 new jobs were created by the economy in March while earnings, year-over-year, increased by 2.3 percent. The average hours worked remained stable, and the labor force participation rate rose off its recent record lows.

The numbers came from two sources: payroll numbers provided by businesses directly to the Labor Department, and household numbers provided by phone-call surveys.

In looking at the numbers, Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies LLC, a massive global investment firm headquartered in New York City, said that “we continue to generate a lot of jobs” without asking what kind. A closer look reveals

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The Fed Joins Other Voices Predicting a U.S. Recession

This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on March 22, 2016:  

Harry Dent, the author of The Great Crash Ahead, says that the current rebound in stocks is a head-fake of the first order, that the end of the seven-year bull market in stocks occurred last May. He said just look at a three-year chart of the SPX (Standard and Poor’s 500 Index) and see the rounded top formation.

Instead, talking heads all across the media are calling the recent rise following the precipitous decline that began the first day of trading of 2016 just a speed bump, a hiccup as the seven-year-long bull market in stocks is getting its second wind.

Markit Ltd., the monster financial services and advisory company located in London, issued its first warning in late February with its flash that its services purchasing managers’ index

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Markit Ltd. Says U.S. Economy Is Faltering

This article appeared online at TheNewAmerican.com on Tuesday, March 22, 2016:  

Markit Ltd., the London-based global financial information behemoth, issued an early warning about signs of the coming recession in late February when it published its services purchasing managers’ index. It went negative for the first time in more than two years. At the time, Chris Williamson, Markit’s chief economist, said:

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July BLS Jobs Report: The Sound of One Hand Clapping?

This article was first published at TheNewAmerican.com on Monday, August 4, 2014:

MarketWatch

To Jeffry Bartash, writing for the Wall Street Journal’s MarketWatch, Friday’s jobs report looked awfully good: 209,000 new jobs were added in July and in all the right places: mining, construction, manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing. In addition, there was almost no growth whatsoever in the “government” sector: just 11,000 new jobs were created there last month. This, according to Bartash, means that the economy is on a hot streak, having generated more than 200,000 new jobs every month for the last six months — the first time that has happened since 1997.

Added Bartash:

In the first seven months of 2014 the economy has gained an average of 230,000 jobs. That’s the best stretch of job creation since the [Great Recession] ended in mid-2009 and 19% faster than the pace of hiring in 2013.

End of story? Not quite.

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Friday’s Underwhelming jobs Report

This article first appeared at the McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, August 4, 2014:

Liar

Criss Jami, the lead singer of the rock band Venus in Arms, may reasonably be accused of having given the president lessons in deceit, especially as they both live in the city where truth-telling is a lost art. Said Jami:

Just because something isn’t a lie does not mean that it isn’t deceptive. A liar knows that he is a liar, but one who speaks mere portions of truth in order to deceive is a craftsman of destruction.

When Friday’s jobs report came out from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), President Obama spoke “mere portions” of its truth:

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There are Lies, Damned Lies and the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Mark Twain

Cover of Mark Twain

This article first appeared at The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, May 5, 2014:

Perhaps the most famous quote regarding statistics comes from Mark Twain: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.” The only trouble is that Mark Twain said it didn’t originate with him: he got it from British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli. But historians haven’t been able to find that phrase in any of Disraeli’s writings!

How appropriate is that? One cannot even validate a quote about statistics to prove

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Rosy jobs Report Headline fails to mask Continuing Underlying Weakness

English: CALEXICO, CA, 4-4-07 --- Hundreds of ...

Photo by Michael Raphael (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The headlines from Friday’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) were rosy: employment rose by 288,000 (exceeding expectations) while the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percent to 6.3, just above the rate dating back to September 2008.

The talking heads from the administration looked only at those headlines and took credit for the gains. Jason Furman, chairman of Obama’s Council of Economic Advisors, said

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America’s Welfare State is Thriving

Margaret Thatcher

Cover of Margaret Thatcher

This article first appeared at The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Wednesday, April 30, 2014:

Former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s famous dictum, “The only trouble with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money” isn’t factually correct, nor is it complete. Lazy thinkers assume from this that eventually the welfare state will just fade away like a bad cold or a nightmare, and that everything will be okay in the morning.

Here is what Thatcher actually said during an interview in 1976:

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BLS Reports one in five Families has no one Working

grateful

(Photo credit: woodleywonderworks)

In its awkward but astonishing revelation, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday that “of the nation’s 80.4 million families, 80.0 percent had at least one employed member in 2013.” Translation: 20 percent of those families had no one working in 2013!

How is that possible? The BLS defines a family as

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Friday’s Jobs Report: There’s Good News, and then…

On the surface Friday’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) wasn’t so bad: 169,000 jobs were created in August and the unemployment rate dropped slightly, once again, to 7.3%. This was slightly below expectations (180,000) but about in line with the average monthly gains over the past year.

But – and it’s a big but – not everyone is participating, and some of those numbers

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The Myth of the Disappearing Middle Class in America is Finally Put to Rest

This was first published at The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Monday, July 15th, 2013:

 

Two favorite economists, Donald Boudreaux of George Mason University and Mark Perry of the University of Michigan, have contested and decried the dominant social theme that America’s middle class is disappearing. For instance, back in January their arguments reached the pages of the Wall Street Journal in which they stated flatly that

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Friday’s Jobs Report In Line with Reduced Expectations

Friday’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) only surprised those with unrealistic expectations about the health of the economy, showing that job growth of just 88,000 new jobs in March not only was far less than establishment economists had predicted, at 200,000, but

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Friday’s Surprisingly Strong Jobs Numbers Aren’t Real

At first blush Friday’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics looked pretty good, catching establishment economists off-guard by about 80,000 jobs. Instead of the 160,000 new jobs expected in February, the BLS reported 236,000, which pushed down the unemployment rate to 7.7%. This came on top of a

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Union Protesters to Descend on Lansing Over Right to Work

Mitch Daniels - Right to Work for Less

Mitch Daniels – Right to Work for Less (Photo credit: DonkeyHotey)

Painting the issue in the darkest possible terms, labor organizer Dan Fingas said on his Facebook page that

Michigan’s far-right legislature slipped through Right to Work legislation without any debate. Without any input. And Michigan workers are under attack. It’s time to step up.

There will be a Rally at the Capitol on Tuesday, December 11th, at 8:00AM.

By the middle of the day on Monday, fewer than 1,200 people said they were going to attend, but the Michigan State Police aren’t taking any chances and are preparing for an overflow crowd at the Capitol Building which has a capacity of 2,000.

At issue is the nearly certain ratification of right-to-work legislation that both houses have already approved to make Michigan the 24th Right to Work (RTW) state in the nation. The final vote is scheduled for Tuesday.

Governor Rick Snyder has already indicated that he’ll sign the legislation, stating that

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The ADP Jobs Report for November Just Arrived

The ACP jobs report for November showed 118,000 new jobs were created in the private sector last month. This is hardly good news for the economy but better than I, or Wells Fargo, anticipated. The manufacturing sector is declining, confirming (as I noted yesterday) the recession call by ECRI last year. Wells Fargo thought we might see 80,000.

ACP isn’t the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) which is the big mack-daddy of employment tracking. They use a different methodology than does ACP and sometimes there is a divergence. But over time both outfits’ numbers are very close.

To parse the details:

118,000 new jobs in November, down from 158,000 in October.

19,000 new jobs were created by small businesses in November, down from 50,000 in October.

And, as expected, the manufacturing sector lost 16,000 jobs.

In December a year ago people were excited to see nearly 300,000 jobs created in the private sector. Later it turned out that a lot of them were temp jobs for the holidays. Job creation never touched 300,000 since, muddling around at about 100,000 ever since. This isn’t enough to restore the economy to good health. Or, put another way, there isn’t enough entrepreneurial activity to justify hiring at a level sufficient to absorb new entrants.

And that’s the key understanding from today’s ADP numbers: regulations, uncertainty about the fiscal cliff, the awareness that Obama has little interest in reviving the economy because of his totalitarian ideology and commitment to reducing the US to just another weak socialist state are all combining to keep entrepreneurs – the real job creators – from taking a risk on the future.

I frankly don’t see much to change these numbers from ADP or the BLS going forward. ECRI’s recession call appears accurate: they think it started last July. Nothing here from ADP changes that outlook for the near future.

Latest Manufacturing Report Confirms ECRI’s Recession Call

Cogs and gears

Calling it “unexpected,” Reuters reported that the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from the Institute for Supply Management for November fell to its lowest level in over three years. A poll of economists by Reuters showed they didn’t see it coming.

The PMI covers the private sector and quizzes 400 purchasing managers in 18 different manufacturing sectors to get their view of market conditions from their perspective: better than last month, same as last month, or worse, along with any comments they wish to make. Any reading above 50 indicates the sector is growing, and below that it’s contracting.

Bradley Holcomb, the chairman of the survey committee, said:

 The PMI registered 49.5 percent, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from October’s reading of 51.7 percent, indicating contraction in manufacturing for the fourth time in the last six months. This month’s PMI reading reflects the lowest level since July 2009 when the PMI registered 49.2 percent.

The New Orders Index registered 50.3 percent, a decrease of 3.9 percentage points from October, indicating [slowing] in new orders for the third consecutive month…

The Employment Index registered 48.4 percent, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points, which is the index’s lowest reading since  September 2009 when the Employment Index registered 47.8 percent.

Holcomb noted that unsolicited comments from the purchasing managers also reflect the slowdown:

From Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products: “We are in a lull.”

From Plastics & Rubber Products: “Differences between [the] first half of [the] year and [the] remaining half are very dramatic,   growing to a peak in the middle of the year with a gradual decline since.”

From Computer & Electronic Products: “Seeing a slowdown in requests for quotes [RFQ] activity.”

From Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components: “Seeing a slowdown in demand across [all] markets.”

From Transportation Equipment: “Economy is every sluggish. Production is down and orders have slowed considerably from Q1.”

This report may have surprised the economists polled by Reuters but it certainly didn’t surprise Lakshman Achuthan, chief economist at the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), who called for another recession back in September, 2011. Following the prediction, The New York Times noted that ECRI not only correctly called the beginning and the end of the last recession, “it has gotten all of its

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Double-Digit Unemployment May Be the New Normal

AMERICAN PROPAGANDA POSTERS: OBAMA JOBS

(Photo credit: printthetruth)

After parsing the unemployment report that was issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday, November 2nd, two scholars at the Heritage Foundation, Rea Hederman and James Sherk,  concluded that at the present jobs growth rate it could take another five years for a full jobs recovery to occur from the Great Recession. That would place the recovery after the next presidential election in 2016 and nearly ten years after the start of the recession in December 2007.

Noting that 125,000 new jobs must be created every month just to keep up with population growth, they turned to the “jobs calculator” offered at the website of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and asked it to determine how long it would take for job growth to return to normal, based on the average job growth over the past three months (170,000). The answer: the summer of 2017.

This assumption that future job growth would be maintained at that rate is laden with so many difficulties and subject to so many unknowns as to call the entire exercise into question. This is called “straight line thinking in a curvilinear world,” or, put another way, this assumes that the future will look like the past. It probably won’t.

For instance, there is the “fiscal cliff” and the great uncertainty about how the lame duck congress will deal with it, if they deal with it at all. Great speculation abounds about various scenarios but each concludes that

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Looking Behind the Latest Jobs Report Numbers

JOB Toulouse

(Photo credit: JiPs☆STiCk)

On the surface, Friday’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) looked pretty good, and the response from establishment economists was predictable: the economy continues to grow, Obama’s policies are working, just give them time, and so forth.

For the record, BLS reported that “total non-farm payroll employment increased by 171,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged [from September] at 7.9 percent.” It disclaimed any impact that Hurricane Sandy had on these numbers as the data upon which their report was based had been collected before the storm.

Diane Swonk, an economist at Mesirow Financial told CNBC: “The consumer’s feeling a little bit better…[employers] are not hiring out like crazy, but certainly you’ve got to welcome these kinds of numbers.” And Arne Kelleberg, professor of sociology at the University of North Carolina, claimed the report proved that “the fundamentals are strong. I do see the cyclical aspects of the unemployment situation being

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Many of the articles on Light from the Right first appeared on either The New American or the McAlvany Intelligence Advisor.