This article was published by The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor on Thursday, May 3, 2018:
John LeBoutillier, a one-term Republican congressman from New York more than 30 years ago and now a self-styled political commentator, thinks the Republicans are in deep trouble come November. Boasting two degrees from Harvard, LeBoutillier has a distinctive progressive viewpoint on the matter. Nevertheless, taking that into account, LeBoutillier writes that the “2018 midterm defeat will be even worse than Republicans let on.” He asked rhetorically at TheHill.com, “Will the Democrats win back control of one or both houses of Congress? And is the blue wave so big that it might hurt GOP control of state houses and governorships [as well]? Seven months is still too far away to predict anything, but there are preliminary indications that should deeply worry Republicans.”
He’s not the only one declaring a takeover of at least the House of Representatives by Democrats in November. Politicos tout the historic tendency of the incumbent party to lose seats in both houses in the midterm elections, but with President Donald Trump on the political scene, Democrats are hoping the distaste many have for him and his policies will turn into votes come November.
Out of the blue comes this from the Reuters/Ipsos poll results, which were released on Monday: the critical core, the dependable base among millennials that Democrats are relying on to carry them to victory in November, is melting away.
When millennials aged 18 to 34 were asked this question two years ago, their answers were reflected in how they voted in the 2016 Presidential election:
If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate for U.S. Congress in your district where you live?
They replied that they would support the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate, 55-45. In November 2016, they supported Hillary Clinton 55-37 over Donald Trump.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday asked the same question of the same cohort, but received a far different response: the survey of more than 16,000 registered voters ages 18 to 34 showed their support for the Democrat candidate slipping by a breathtaking nine percentage points, to 46, down from 55 two years ago.
For the Democrats, the news is even worse: two years ago, young white voters favored Democrats over Republicans for Congress by a margin of 47 to 33 percent. Today? That gap of 14 points has disappeared entirely, with equal numbers of those polled supporting the candidate for each party.
The shift is partly due, not unexpectedly, to the improved economy. When asked which party takes better care of the economy, two years ago Republicans received positives from only 20 percent of those surveyed. Two years later? The GOP now receives high marks from 32 percent of them – a 12-point improvement for the Republicans.
What’s more disturbing for the Democrats is the increasing number of those who voted for Democrats in 2016 and now telling the pollster that they are turning away, declaring themselves either to be undecided, supporting a third party candidate, or planning on not voting at all in November.
Reuters said the results of its poll – in its typical British understatement – “presents a potential problem for Democrats” in November, especially since they have “come to count on millennials as a core constituency” and a vital and necessary cog in its machinery gearing up for November.
LeBoutillier ended his article by expressing his bias: “Trump is a disaster and has to go. That means his party has to go, too. Period. Thus, the 2018 [result]: big Democratic gains up and down the ballot. A huge rebuke to Trump and the Republican Party.”
If he is wrong and the 16,000 registered voters quizzed by Reuters are right, not only could the “blue wave” turn into bathtub ripples, but it might just be overwhelmed by a Republican “red tsunami,” turning forecasters like LeBoutillier into false prophets and expanding the Republican advantage instead.
TheHill.com: Democrats losing support of millennials: poll
NationalReview.com: Democrats Lose Ground with Millennials